To this point in the season my College Basketball Predictions have gone 12-8-2. I am hitting 60% of my predictions and hoping that I keep this pace, where I can continue to help all you folks that view my blog and are betting on my picks.
BIG 10 CONFERENCE MATCHUP
INDIANA HOOSIERS VS ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (+7)
Tonight at 7PM EST on ESPN the Illinois Fighting Illini (15-8) welcome the #1 ranked Indiana Hoosiers (20-2) into Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers are fresh off a big victory against Michigan and are looking to start their first leg of a two game road trip with a win. While Illinois has been less than spectacular since breaking into 2013. They are 2-7 in their last 9 and desperately need a win to turn things around. I think we see them play with that desperation tonight.
The Hoosiers are one of the best all around teams in the nation and can especially hurt you when they are on offense. They are 2nd in the country scoring 83.8 points per game and shoot 42.2% from beyond the ark (3rd in the nation). I don’t expect Illinois to completely shut them down but I do expect them to challenge them. Something I can assure you of is that in practise all week coach John Groce was focusing on his teams defense. In the Fighting Illini’s first 12 games (in which they went a perfect 12-0) they allowed only two opponents to score 70 or more points, and were allowing an average of 62 points per game defensively. Fast forward to their last 7 games where they have gone 1-6, they are allowing teams to score an average of 72 points per game. This is where I see Illinois getting back to the basics, starting off by playing a solid defensive game.
If this game does reach an NBA type total, Senior Guard Brandon Paul will have to be at his best. He is already 3rd in the Big 10 scoring 17.4 points per game and Illinois will need a great performance from him in order to compete. I like the Fighting Illini to challenge this very good Hoosiers team tonight. Home court advantage and crowd should propel this squad tonight. Don’t be surprised if Illinois pull off the upset tonight while knocking off top ranked Indiana.
TRENDS
INDIANA
- 2-4 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record after 15+ games
- 3-5 against the spread this season after a conference matchup
- 3-6 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
ILLINOIS
- 17-12 against the spread versus Indiana since 1997
- 20-11 straight up against Indiana since 1997
- 10-2 straight up against Indiana at home since 1997
- 206-43 straight up at home since 1997
FINAL SCORE – HOOSIERS 67 – FIGHT ILLINI 70