Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s NCAA 2013

WEST COAST CONFERENCE MATCHUP

#5 GONZAGA BULLDOGS (-1) VS SAINT MARY’S GAELS

Tonight at 11PM EST these two West Coast rivals will tip-off at McKeon Pavilion on ESPN2. Gonzaga (23-2) is trying to improve to a perfect 11-0 in conference play this season, while Saint Mary’s (21-4) will be looking for revenge for their loss on January 10th, and a share of the conference lead. I am predicting and expecting another victory for the Zags tonight.  

This could turn out to be the best basketball game on thursday night. Both teams are neck-and-neck in most statistical categories, but I like Gonzaga to sweep the season series tonight. The BullDogs are the 7th highest scoring team in the nation putting up 78.6 points per game. They have the #1 shooting percentage at 50.7%, and can play good defense too, allowing only 61.3 PPG (59th). Look for them to have another solid outing tonight, taking advantage of Saint Mary’s inexperience against ranked teams this season.

Watch for Canadian guard Kevin Pangos to have a huge game tonight. He leads the West Coast conference shooting 45.3% from beyond the ark. Compare that to Saint Mary’s defense which is allowing teams to sink 38.5% from three point land (335th nationally), Pangos will be good for a couple tonight. But don’t overlook the rest of the roster, collectively the Zags shoot 38.5% from beyond the ark (27th). 

Saint Marys fate lies in the hands of senior guard Matthew Dellavedova. He leads the Gaels with 15.9 PPG and 6.6 assists per game. He will be on display again tonight and will need an MVP performance for the Gaels to compete in this game. Something I presume he won’t accomplish tonight. In their first meeting Gonzaga did a great job at containing him. Holding him to 24.4% from the field and 2-9 from three point land. I anticipate we see much of the same tonight. 

I expect that Gonzaga’s upset loss against Saint Mary’s in the NCAA tournament last season is still fresh in their minds. They won the first meeting, the game tonight will be a statement. I envision the BullDogs continue to roll, winning their 7th in a row while crushing the Gaels chances of winning the WCC this season. 

TRENDS 

BULLDOGS 

GAELS 

• 6-11 straight up in games in February the last 3 seasons
• 13-23 against the spread versus good defensive teams allowing 64 PPG or less after playing 15+ games in the last 3 seasons