Georgetown vs Cincinnati NCAA 2013

Figured I would give you guys a little update on my record to this point in the season. As of today my record is 18-11-2. I’m hitting 62% and hoping to improve on that tonight. Yesterday my predictions went miserable 1-2. The Zags were the only ones to come through, UCLA was down and out early against California and the Golden Gophers although pushed the game into overtime were only able to win by 5 not the 6 we needed. Here is who I like in tonight’s most important college basketball matchup.

#15 GEORGETOWN HOYAS (+4.5) VS CINCINNATI BEAR CATS


These Big East rivals are set to duke it out tonight at 9PM EST on ESPN. Georgetown (18-4) is looking to win their 7th straight, while with a win Cincinnati (19-6) would only be a half game back of the Big East lead. I am predicting an upset in Cincinnati tonight where the Hoyas come in and win outright.

The first thing I noticed after doing some research about these two Big East teams is how Cincinnati’s offensive statistics are a little outdated. As of today the Bearcats rank 104th in scoring averaging 70.4 points per game. Now that average is collectively over the entire season, lets stop for a minute and look how they have been playing recently, after all this is what is most important. Cincinnati in their last six games have scored more than 65 points only once, and are averaging a measly 58.6 points per game. They have 3-3 record across that span and look to be stumbling at the wrong time. Their scoring average is top heavy from the beginning of the season, when they averaged 86.8 points per game during their first six.

As for Georgetown they seem to be hitting their stride at the perfect time. In their last six they are still averaging 65 points per game, right along their season average of 64.3; But what is really important is the fact they went 6-0 against some difficult opponents. They walked into Notre Dame and rubbed their faces in defeat 63-47, the same Notre Dame team that entered Cincinnati only a few weeks ago and beat the Bearcats at home. They followed that outing by knocking off Louisville, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Rutgers and most recently Marquette.

The X-factor I see in this game is how sound Georgetown is defensively compared to Cincinnati’s most recent struggles on offense. This season the Hoyas are 10th best in country allowing only 55.7 points per game, and they only seem to be getting better. Across their last six they are giving up an average of 54 points, which on the season would place them as the 5th best defense in the nation. They are great at slowing down the game, limiting opponents possessions and always challenging the shooter. It shows when looking at their opponents shooting percentage; 37.8% and 11th lowest in the country.

I personally believe that lines makers have made the wrong team the favourite in this matchup. The only threat Cincinnati has is junior guard Sean Kilpatrick. Kilpatrick is the Bearcats leading scorer and has averaged 18.1 points per game across his last six, accounting for about 30% of Cincinnati’s total offense during that span. He can’t do it all himself and I suspect the Bearcats don’t do it at all tonight. Hoyas win their seventh in a row and jump into sole possession of the Big East conference; for now that is.

TRENDS

HOYAS 

• 9-2 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
• 6-1 against the spread off a win against a conference rival
• 6-1 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record after 15+ games this season
• 4-1 against the spread as an underdog this season