Its been a couple days since I last covered a college game on here. I believe the last matchup I covered was Arizona vs Oregon where I correctly picked the Ducks to knock off the Wildcats. My record at this point in the season is 5-4-2, lets see if I can turn that around;
Atlantic Coast Conference Matchup
DUKE BLUE DEVILS (-2.5) VS MIAMI HURRICANES
This game is scheduled to tip-off at 7PM EST on ESPN, as the Hurricanes (13-3) welcome the Blue Devils (16-1) to the Bank United Center. All you Hurricane fans, don’t hold your breath for this game, I like the Blue Devils to win this matchup for a couple different reasons.
Duke walks into this game with a better record than Miami, but the Hurricanes are the ones atop the conference. They are yet to be defeated against ACC opponents this season but that trend stops here. Duke’s only loss this season came against N.C State, who at the time was the highest scoring basketball team in the nation, something that isn’t a strength of this Hurricane’s team. They are averaging 67.3 points per game on offense (186th in the nation), and have scored only 80 points once this season. Rather, Miami focuses on stellar defense giving up only 58.4 PPG (27th in the nation), to win them games. An approach that I don’t see working against the Blue Devils.
This season only two teams have held Duke under 70 points (both games Duke still won) and in the only game they lost against N.C State, they still mustered 76 points. As for the Hurricanes, 12 of their 13 victories this season they held opponents to under 70 points. While the most comparable team to Duke that they have already faced this season (#4 Arizona) they got blown out by 19 points. Duke is no stranger to playing good defensive teams either. They have already beat Clemson and Louisville this season, two teams that rank better defensively than Miami.
The Blue Devils are going to run up the score in this game. They are 14th in then nation scoring 78.7 points per game. While they can really make it hurt if you don’t challenge the shooter from beyond the ark, shooting 42.2% from 3-point land (4th in the nation). Look no further than Senior Mason Plumlee to get it done for the Devils. He averaging 17.4 points per game, 2nd best points in the ACC, and 11.4 rebounds per game, best in the ACC. Don’t expect this game to be close, Duke should turn it into a shootout.
TRENDS
DUKE
- 7-1 against the spread since 1997 when the total set of points is between 130-134.5
- 4-1 straight up in their last 4 games on the road in Miami
- 13-1 when playing against a team with a winning record this season
- 432-68 when playing as a favourite since 1997
- 1-4 against the spread when playing with 6 days or less rest
- 63-130 as a underdog since 1997