Tonight is Game #1 of the World Series between the San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers. As baseball fans we endure the longest regular season in all of sports at 182 games in hopes of seeing our favourite team make the playoffs. If we are lucky enough to see our team make the playoffs, it almost always requires a near perfect post-season for a chance to play for the coveted commissioners trophy. In some aspects I think the process of how the World Series champion is crowned is quite unfair.
The regular season is so long that it is unheard of for a team to stay healthy for the full 182 games. A prime example is my Toronto Blue Jays, only a couple weeks into the season we were blessed with injuries to Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison; and this was only our pitching staff! The regular season is a battle of endurance and thats why when I look at the possibility a team can become World Champions in as little as 12 games it seems not right. 12 games is a little over 6% of the regular season games a team plays each year. When comparing that to the NHL and a 82 game regular season, it taking at least 16 games to win it all, that works out to about 20% of the regular season games. Some people such as myself analyze the statistics behind it and as much as it looks unfair, lifelong baseball fans would simply call it traditional. One thing I cannot deny is the excitement that the one game Wildcard brings to the postseason in baseball.
Now that everything has been decided and we have the World Series set to go in San Francisco tonight, I decided I would breakdown the game on positional match ups and predict who I see taking Game 1 tonight.
JUSTIN VERLANDER RHP VS. BARRY ZITO LHP
The first and most important matchup in this game is on the mound between Verlander and Zito. Verlander is set to start his 4th game of the post-season, he is currently 3-0 with an ERA of 0.74 over 24 innings with 25 strike outs; while Zito has a record of 1-0 with an ERA of 1.74 over 10 innings with 10 strike outs. The Tigers have a clear advantage here, Verlander has been playing the best baseball of his career this october. He has had such control over his game and precision with every pitch it makes it hard to imagine Zito winning this battle. This is a clear cut advantage in my eyes, good pitching can be the most important aspect in any game played. If a team can put a hot pitcher on the mound like Verlander and he can throw magic all it takes is for the offense to put up one run over 9 innings to win a game.
Verlanders post-season career prior to this year he had a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 5.5. But this year is different you can feel it. I believe the longer he is on the mound and how good of a job he can do at keeping his pitching count down, the more likely Detroit will win this game. The Tigers have a clear cut advantage in this matchup and I find it hard to see Barry Zito winning the pitching duel against the reigning CY Young award winner. Verlander hasn’t seen the Giants since June 16th 2008 when Detroit lost 8-6. While the last time Detroit faced Zito was at home, he went 6 scoreless inning and the Tigers ultimately lost 15-3.
ADVANTAGE – VERLANDER
MIGUEL CABRERA (3B) VS. MARCO SCUTARO (2B)
The second player comparison I am looking at is Miguel Cabrera versus Marco Scutaro. When analyzing who has the advantage in this match up many people would point directly at the first triple crown winner since 1967 Cabrera. He did have a phenomenal season capturing this title and it may be the only time in my lifetime I live to see one. But we have to look at who is the better player right now, not during the regular season.
To this point in the playoffs Cabrera is batting .278 with 36 at bats and 1 homerun. This average can be credited particularly to their first series against Oakland (.250) because against the Yankees he batted .313. He has begun to turn things around and is improving his average but still isn’t hitting near his .330 regular season average. Looking at the other side of this matchup Marco Scutaro has been one of the best hitters this october. With 48 at bats he is hitting .354, which is good for best in the league during the postseason amongst players that played the same number of games. Against St. Louis he hit an amazing .460 and was the best hitter in the Giants lineup. This was recognized when he was named the NLCS MVP and is walks into the World Series the hottest batter on both teams. Scutaro is going to come out right where he left off against the Cardinals. While I would look for Cabrera to look flat with too many days rest between series.
ADVANTAGE – SCUTARO
BUSTER POSEY (C) VS. PRINCE FIELDER (1B)
The last matchup I decided analyze is Buster Posey versus Prince Fielder. This is another very close comparison. Buster was named comeback player of the by a landslide after hitting .336 with 24 Homeruns and 103 RBI’s. While we got to see Fielder for the first time in a Detroit uniform this year hitting .313 with 30 Homeruns and 108 RBI’s. These guy’s had near identical regular seasons and both know the expectations that they are faced with. So far this postseason neither of them have been spectacular with Posey hitting .188 and Fielder .211.
The last time Fielder jacked one was way back on October 10th against the Athletics in the divisional playoff matchup. He is long overdue for a homerun, but I don’t see tonight being his night. Only 12 of Fielders 18 homeruns came on the road and 6 of them off left handers. Exactly what he will see tonight facing Barry Zito. Posey is however not playing much better. He hasn’t had a homerun since october 11th against Cincinnati but it did come at home in San Francisco. He is due for a big game and plays his best ball at home in the bay area. I like the odds of Buster having a good game tonight much better than Fielders strictly based on his past World Series experience and playing at home and with momentum; coming off their second consecutive comeback series win.
ADVANTAGE – POSEY
To finish I think most people would agree that Detroit has the clear cut advantage tonight in the Pitching matchup but offensively I like the Giants to put up better numbers. It will take a near perfect game from Verlander tonight to hold off the red hot Giants; and a strong defensive outing to back him up, an area of weakness for Detroit all season and strength for the Giants. The bay area is going to be nuts tonight and as much as I believe Verlander will fend off the 2010 world series champs batters initally, they will find a way to get it done. Much like they have faced elimination and adversity right in the eye and come all the way back from 3-1 in St. Louis and 2-0 in Cincinnati to reach their second world series in three years.
FINAL SCORE – GIANTS 3 – DETROIT 1
Tonight is Game #1 of the World Series between the San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers. As baseball fans we endure the longest regular season in all of sports at 182 games in hopes of seeing our favourite team make the playoffs. If we are lucky enough to see our team make the playoffs, it almost always requires a near perfect post-season for a chance to play for the coveted commissioners trophy. In some aspects I think the process of how the World Series champion is crowned is quite unfair.
