WEEK 17 NFL – A GUIDE TO BEATING THE BOOKS – TEASE LIKE A PROFESSIONAL

WEEK 16 RESULTS & RECAPS

I can hardly believe that we actually made it. The end of the NFL regular season is here, sixteen weeks behind us and only one more remaining until post-season play begins. Last weekend my predictions finished 2-1, dropping my record to 19-5 on the season. For those of you who bet one-unit ($100) weekly on my three game 6-point teaser picks, and parlayed them together you would be up $280 heading into the final week of the regular season. Let’s see if we can finish the season strong, but first here are how my predictions finished last weekend.

WIN – NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-1)

This was a rocking chair Christmas day winner. The Vikings had zero answers for the Saints running game, just like I predicted. Alvin Kamara went off for six touchdowns. It was tough to watch as a Vikings fan, but at this point if it means a better draft pick who cares.

WIN – CHICAGO BEARS (-1.5)

Back to back rocking chair winners. Jacksonville took an early 3-0 lead in the first, but that was their only lead the entire game. Chicago came out and their offense looked dangerous for a 4th straight week putting up 41-points. Even Jaguar fans in the stadium were cheering when the Bears scored touchdowns; here comes Trevor Lawerence Jacksonville.

LOSS – LOS ANGELES RAMS (+8.5)

This game was a real nail biter and in the end a heartbreaker. Tied 6-6 at halftime it looked like this was destined to be a field-goal game. In the end it was Seattle that won by 11-points, but it was the Rams drive in the 3rd quarter that really cost us. Deciding to go for a touchdown on 4th and goal instead of taking points, and failing to convert, left the Rams without 3-points. If those points had been taken we would be singing a different tune here, a tune of victory. But that isn’t the case. Tough loss.

WEEK 16 TEASER PLAYS

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13.5) VS CINCINATTI BENGALS

6-POINT TEASE – BALTIMORE (-7.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have one simple task this weekend, win the football game and they are in the playoffs. Cincinnati on the other hand, they are staring a top-5 draft pick right in the eyes. The Bengals at 4-10-1 have won back to back games for the first time all season, while Baltimore (10-5) have knocked off 4 straight.

I am not in love with the fact this 6-point tease only brings Baltimore down to a 7.5-point favourite, but this is more of a situational play for me than anything. Baltimore is going to be extremely motivated in this spot, they can decide their playoff fate with a victory. The Ravens have faced a softer schedule in the last couple weeks, but that shouldn’t overshadow the fact their average margin of victory was 15.5-points. This team has straightened out some issues and Lamar Jackson is looking more and more like the MVP winner from last season. In the first meeting between these two Baltimore won 27-3, while facing Joe Burrow. We can all admit Ryan Finley doesn’t give them a better shot to win in this spot.

Baltimore is quite literally going to run away with this game. The Bengals are 30th in the league against the run, giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry. With the Ravens diversity in the backfield and Lamar being a threat to take off at any moment, I don’t see how they stop Baltimore from throwing up a number in this spot. Expect the Ravens to win, and win easy.

FINAL SCORE – RAVENS 30 – BENGALS 10

PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS (-10)

6 POINT TEASE – CLEVELAND (-4)

The Cleveland Browns aim to make the post-season for the first time in over 18 years, and have clinched only their third winning season in franchise history! I had to double take when I found that out. Either way, this is a spot where I’ll be riding Cleveland. Pittsburgh has been a roller coaster the last few weeks, and the Browns hold their own destiny to the post-season, simply win and you are in.

Where do I start with this game. How about the fact Pittsburgh has already clinched a position in the post-season, and has decided to sit almost every important starter in this matchup. Ben Roethlisburger, Maurkice Pouncey, T.J Watt, Joe Haden and Terrell Edmunds are all out for rest or on the Covid-19/Reserve. Which means we are lucky enough to see Mason Rudolph throwing the skin for Pittsburgh on Sunday, staring down Myles Garrett on every single snap.

How can you forget Myles Garrett ripping off Rudolph’s helmet last season and hitting him with it? Costing Garret an indefinite suspension and left sitting out the remainder of the season. This game might have some of the best headlines of the weekend, and I love the Browns to make a statement in this game on both sides of the football. Give me Cleveland to win by 4 or more.

FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 20 – BROWNS 29

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4.5) VS CHICAGO BEARS

6-POINT TEASE – CHICAGO (+10.5)

Plug your nose with this play. I’ll be fading Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Chicago, teasing the Bears up the 10.5-point underdogs. Green Bay has to win to secure the #1 seed in the NFC post-season, or have Seattle lose at home versus San Francisco. While the Bears need a win and secure a playoff spot themselves after rattling off three straight wins.

Aaron Rodgers has all but locked up the MVP trophy this season, he has been putting up insane numbers and has Green Bay looking scary. But I must remind you the Packers haven’t been the same team playing on the road this season. Five of their seven games have been decided by 10-points or fewer. Two have been outright losses. While they have a 1-2 record overall versus teams with a winning record away from home this year. I’m not going to say the Packers will lose outright, but I am saying the Bears have looked very improved the last couple weeks and they have a defense capable of causing Aaron Rodgers trouble this weekend.

Chicago in the last three games have the 3rd highest scoring offense in the NFL. They are scoring an average of nearly 37 points per game, and Mitchell Trubisky has looked fantastic. In the last three games he has six passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, but most importantly an average completion percentage of over 70%. I think Matt Nagy finally giving up play-calling duties has allowed him to flourish, and in the most important game all season for Chicago I expect Trubisky to keep the Bears in it until the final seconds run off the clock.