WEEK 13 RESULTS & RECAPS
My apologies for not sending out picks last week. I was very busy and just couldn’t find time to sit down and analyze matchups. So in this spot we look back to Week 13, where my picks finished 2-1, bringing me to 14-4 on the year with 6-point teases. Before leaping into this weekend, let’s take a look at how my week 13 picks turned out.
WIN – NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (+8.5)
The 6-point tease in this game paid off. In the second matchup between these divisional rivals Atlanta made it interesting. They found themselves in a position to win on the final drive of the game, but failed to convert. The Saints defense stood tall in this matchup. At the end of the day, we earned the victory teasing the Falcons to +8.5 in this spot.
LOSS – NEW YORK GIANTS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-4.5)
Downright embarrassing. Thats how Seattle had to feel after this showing. They let the Colt McCoy, and the New York Giants win 17-12. They only scored one touchdown the entire game. All that talk about “Let Russ Cook” has officially fizzled as the Seahawks have not looked very good offensively in the last few weeks. Pass protection is becoming a glaring weakness for Seattle, and when Russ feels the pressure he has be making poor decisions this season.
WIN – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2)
No sweat here. The Eagles took at 3-0 lead in the 1st quarter, then Green Bay scored 23 unanswered. It did get somewhat interesting in the 4th quarter after Doug Peterson decided to finally bench Carson Wentz in favour of Jalen Hurts, and they made it an 8-point game. In the end, Aaron Rodgers prevailed and the Packers secured a 14-point victory with ease.
WEEK 15 GAME PREDICTIONS
CAROLINA PANTHERS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8)
6-POINT TEASE – GREEN BAY (-2)
The Carolina Panthers (4-9) travel north on Saturday evening to take on the Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Lambeau Field. What started out as a promising season for the Panthers quickly crashed and burned. After a 3-2 start, Carolina has lost seven of their last eight outings. The last win they had on the road came way back in October versus the Atlanta Falcons. So teasing down the Packers in this spot from 8-point favourites down to 2-point favourites sets up perfect in my books.
Aaron Rodgers is playing like a man on a mission this season. He has been lighting opposing secondaries on fire and with only three weeks remaining has his name firmly in the MVP race. Entering this weekend Rodgers has thrown three or more passing touchdowns in the last four straight, and has the best quarterback rating in the league. While in his career Rodgers is basically unbeatable in the month of December when playing at home. In 23 games in his career in Green Bay in December, Rodgers has a 20-3 record. Oh, and a record average passer rating of 112.6, best in NFL history at home in December.
This game has significant importance to Green Bay and the playoff picture. New Orleans failing to beat Philadelphia last week means the Packers are now the #1 seed in the NFC, and decide their own playoff positioning these last few weeks. Facing a tough Tennessee team next week, and division rivals Chicago in the final week of the season, you can bet there will be a heavy emphasis on taking care of business this weekend.
Carolina has struggled against high scoring teams this year. They are 4-1 versus opponents that are top-10 in scoring this season, and are giving up an average of 31-points per game. With the Packers failing to score less than 30-points only three times all season, this game aligns perfectly to be another Green Bay victory. Let me finish with this, Carolina has the worst defense in the NFL on third-down, allowing opponents to convert nearly 51% of the time. While the Green Bay offense is #1 in the league converting nearly 50% on third-downs. Don’t fall for the propaganda giving teddy two gloves and the Panthers a chance in this game.
FINAL SCORE – PANTHERS 17 – PACKERS 33
HOUSTON TEXANS VS INDIAPOLIS COLTS (-7.5)
6-POINT TEASE – INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5)
The Indianapolis Colts (9-4) welcome division rivals Houston (4-9) into Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday. These two faced off only two weeks ago in Houston, with Indianapolis winning. Although it was the over/under in the previous meeting that left all the “over” bettors with a bad taste in their mouth. These two combined for 44-points in the first half, only 7 points shy of the total for the entire game. Looking like a layup for over bettors to cash. Well as you can guess, only 2-points were scored in the entire second half of the game, and DeSean Watson fumbled the ball inside the Colts 10-yard line to finish the game with a final score of 26-20, cashing the under. This has to rank up there all time in bad beats, but enough about the last game, here is why I like the Colts this weekend.
Houston has nothing to play for. Last weekend they were officially eliminated from playoff contention, and DeSean Watson is without his #1 target in Will Fuller due to a PED suspension. Now, nobody likes losing, but where is the motivation for Houston to show up in this contest? I think this roster has already begun packing their bags and is looking to the off-season. Meanwhile for the Colts, this game could be the most important all season, directly affecting their playoff hopes and positioning. Indianapolis is tied with Tennessee at 9-4 for first place in the AFC South, with Tennessee holding the tie-breaker. This leaves Indianapolis sitting only one game ahead of both Miami and Baltimore who are jockeying for the final playoff spot in the AFC. This game has so much meaning to the Colts. If Indianapolis doesn’t simply find a way to win this game, I would be baffled.
Philips Rivers is the one thing that frightens me about the Colts this season. His arm looks like rubber and he makes disgusting decisions at times. But there is a silver lining, him and TY Hilton appear to have finally built a connection. In the last three games they have connected for at least 80 yards and one touchdown in every outing. While the Colts offense is actually ranked top-five in the NFL in scoring per game, hanging an average of 28.6 points on the scoreboard per game. With the Texans defense allowing an average of 401 total yards per game (31st), and a league fewest three interceptions all season, I’ll be trusting Philips Rivers and this Colts offense to take care of business on Sunday.
FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 16 – COLTS 28
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (+6.5)
6-POINT TEASE – TAMPA BAY (-0.5)
Believe it or not, this is only the first meeting between these division rivals this season. Atlanta at 4-9 is officially eliminated from playoff contention, while Tampa Bay is 8-5 and holding onto the sixth seed in the NFC. Thanks to NFL scheduling, in two of the next three weeks these teams face each other.
Atlanta has directly hurt my bankroll on multiple occasions this season. It seems with the dirty birds, I’m always on the wrong side of the equation. This weekend, that won’t be the case. I think this is a spot where Tampa Bay comes into Atlanta and works out their offensive kinks. Atlanta has improved defensively since Raheem Morris took over as intern head coach, but there is still glaring weaknesses. Entering this weekend the Falcons are 31st allowing an average of 6.1 yards per play, and 29th in the Red-zone giving up a touchdown nearly 69% of the time. To keep this game somewhat close the Falcons need to find some way to get pressure on Tom Brady and make him uncomfortable on Sunday. I just don’t see that happening and expect the Buccaneers offense to light up the scoreboard. Tampa is 6th is overall scoring this season averaging 28.5 points per game.
Pass protection and time in the pocket for Matt Ryan will decide this game, and statistics show that he could be in for a long afternoon. Atlanta currently ranks 23rd in pass protection, allowing a sack nearly 5% of plays. While the Buccaneers have the 3rd best pass rush in the league sacking the quarterback on nearly 3% of plays, and are one of only five teams averaging over 3 sacks per game. I expect the Tampa Bay defense to set the tone in this matchup and for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offense to hang a number on this Falcons defense.