WEEK 12 RESULTS AND RECAPS
My week 13 predictions resulted in another 2-1 weekend. Bringing my record on the year up too 12-3 with 6-point teasers. Before jumping into this week, here is how last week played out.
WIN – CLEVELAND BROWNS (-0.5) VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
This game resulted in a two-point victory for Cleveland, covering our 6-point tease but failing to cover the actual Point Spread for the week. In reality this game should have been won by at least 7-point by Cleveland. With less than 3 minutes left in the game Cleveland had Jacksonville in a 4th down situation and sacked Mike Glennon to turn the ball over on downs. Ultimately this should have allowed them to run the clock out. Instead the refs called a “roughing the passer” penalty and gave Jacksonville a fresh set of downs, and the opportunity to score. Lucky for us the Jags failed to convert their 2-point conversion, earning us the win.
LOSS – SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS LOS ANGELES RAMS (-0.5)
Alright, I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong about the the 49ers in this situation. They got some guys back healthy and surprised the Rams in this game. Its seems each and every week there is a distinctive line in the sand over which Jarred Goff performance you will receive. This game proved to be the disappointing inept Goff, ultimately costing us a win in this spot.
WIN – NEW ORLEANS (PK) VS DENVER BRONCOS
Man was this win easy for those of us that placed a wager before the news about the Broncos Quarterback Coronavirus situation was released. When news broke Denver wouldn’t have a quarterback this line shot all the way up to New Orleans (-17) before kickoff. It really showed as the Broncos only completed one pass this entire game. Talk about no sweat here, you could taste victory before this game was even played if you were lucky enough to get New Orleans at a pick.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-2.5) VS ATLANTA FALCONS
6-POINT TEASE – ATLANTA FALCONS (+8.5)
New Orleans has been very impressive without Drew Brees under center the last two seasons, after last weekend they improved to 7-0. They will be looking to stay perfect as the enter Atlanta to take on the Falcons this weekend. This is the second meeting between these two in the last three weeks, with New Orleans winning 24-9 in their first contest back in week 11.
I’ll be riding the divisional home underdog in this spot. Atlanta has burned me badly several times this season, but I have accepted those defeats and moved on understanding that my perception of this team from early in the season is clearly very different today. Since Atlanta named Raheem Morris the interim head coach this team has been different, and their record shows it. He has Atlanta sitting at 4-2 during his tenure and very much could have had them in playoff positioning had he began coaching at the beginning of the season. I like him to have his team prepared for the rematch of these two divisional rivals, and for Atlanta to make this a close game.
It is looking like Atlanta will have Todd Gurley and Julio Jones back in the lineup for this game. Recency bias plays a huge part in how people pick games in the NFL, and for that reason several of you might think I am crazy in this situation. New Orleans has been playing great football as of late. But don’t underestimate Atlanta’s ability to perform in this game. Home underdogs in the NFL this season have gone 39-28 against the spread (58.2%). With the familiarity between these two organizations, teasing Atlanta up to 8.5-point underdogs is a bet I really like this week. I actually think the Falcons take down the the Saints on Sunday.
FINAL SCORE – NEW ORLEANS 17 – ATLANTA 20
NEW YORK GIANTS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10.5)
6-POINT TEASE – SEAHAWKS (-4.5)
The Seattle Seahawks (8-3) return home after a dominating victory against Philadelphia, to take on the New York Giants. New York enters sitting first place in the NFC East. This of course means next to nothing as the entire division is at least 3 games below .500. While Seattle sits first place in the NFC West, and most books have them favoured by 10.5 points for this matchup. I’m advising you tease them down through 10, 7.5, and 7 to only 4.5-point favourites for this matchup.
Let Russ Cook – the statement in the NFL the first half of the season. Well, Russ ain’t exactly been cooking lately. This is why Patrick Mahomes has taken over as favourite to win MVP this year. I think if Wilson has any chance to stay in the mix for MVP, he needs a lights out performance in this spot. Which is exactly what I expect in this game. New York is simply outmatched on both sides of the ball, and have been benefactors of easy scheduling at this point. They have wins over the Eagles, Cincinnati, and Washington twice. New York just simply won’t be able to keep pace with the Seahawks offense, and their defense can’t be relied upon to keep this game close. Seattle is scoring the 3rd most points in the NFL per game with an average of 31, while the Giants are the 30th ranked offense only scoring an average of 19.5 per outing.
If this were a regular Giants offense with Daniel Jones I might consider the Giants in this spot, but it isn’t. Jones is injured and Colt McCoy is starting under centre. I simply have zero faith in McCoy to lead a Giants offense up and down the field, while Russel Wilson does that exact thing on the other side. Give me Seattle by at least 5 in a spot where I see a blowout coming.
FINAL SCORE – GIANTS 17 – SEAHAWKS 33
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8)
6-POINT TEASE – PACKERS (-2)
The Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1) look to put the train back on track as they travel north to take on the Green Bay Packers (8-3) on Sunday afternoon. Philadelphia has lost three straight, while Green Bay has won three straight.
Teasing Green Bay down to win this game by 2-points is a no brainer. At home this year the Packers are 4-1. Their only loss came against division rivals Minnesota in Week 7. While their four victories have been by a combined average of 13.5-points per outing. The one strength of the Eagles this season has been their defense, but I’ll still lean on Aaron Rodgers at home in this spot. Rodgers is putting up video game numbers this year – 33 touchdowns and an average rating of 117.6, both best in the entire NFL right now. Few teams in the NFL are better at home than the Packers. You can’t help but think the choice by Green Bay to draft a quarterback in the 2nd round of the NFL draft put a bad taste in Rodgers mouth, and this year he has added motivation to perform. Whichever way you slice the pie, the Packers should easily win against the Eagles.
Boy has Carson Wentz crashed and burned. His numbers this season are astoundingly awful, but one thing hit home more than anything else this past week. Consider this – Over the past five weeks, Carson Wentz has more completions in the Endzone to players named Diggs than Josh Allen – Just so things are clear, there are no players on the Eagles with the last name Diggs… The Eagles couldn’t move the football against Seattle last week. A Seahawks defense that is setting defensive records for the yards they are allowing per game this season. In what universe do you see Wentz competing with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers? Take the Packers and sit back as they blow the doors off another poor NFC East team.