WEEK 11 RESULTS & RECAPS
Another week is in the books, and hopefully we are all a wee bit richer! Last week my three teaser picks finished 3-0, bringing my record on the season up to 10-2. I appreciate the feedback you all have given, and am happy to hear it every week. Let’s hope we can all make some more money together this weekend. But first, here is my hot-take of the games I predicted last week.
WIN – NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS HOUSTON TEXANS (+8)
This game was a rocking chair winner from the start. Houston came out and dismantled a weak Patriots secondary, while DeSean Watson picked up some important yardage with his legs. The largest lead New England held all day was 7-points in the first quarter. But entering half Houston was up 21-10 and never looked back. This game was free money in my books.
WIN – GREEN BAY PACKERS (+7.5) VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
No sweat here either. Green Bay was in control of this game from the beginning. The Packers jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the season quarter, at this point I figured this game was in the bag. But the Colts and Philip Rivers pulled up their socks and charged back. It wasn’t until the 4th quarter that Indianapolis had their first lead. With the game ending in a tie, Green Bay won the coin toss and got the ball first in OT, only for Valdes-Scantling to fumble on the second play. That single play dug a grave for the Packers, with the Colts kicking a game winning field goal only 4 plays later. This game is a prototypical example of why you should consider teasing NFL games. Everyone that had Green Bay on the Point Spread at +1, +1.5, +2, or +2.5 lost, while all of us that teased the Pack secured a win.
WIN – KANSAS CITY CHEIFS (-2) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS
Could the Raiders have won this football game? Definitely; they seem to have a system that cripples the Chiefs defense. Should the Raiders have won this game? I could easily argue yes. So what happened? Patrick Mahomes, Patrick Mahomes happened. The Raiders took a 3-point lead with 1:53 left in the 4th quarter. It only then took Mahomes only 7-plays and a 1:15 to drive down the field and score the game winning touchdown. I think Andy Reid’s post game press conference summed this game up perfectly “Ive got Pat Mahomes, you give me a minute and a half, I’m pretty good”. At this point Pittsburgh is the only undefeated team in the NFL, but I think the Chiefs are most threatening to win the SuperBowl.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-6.5) VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
6-POINT TEASE – CLEVELAND BROWNS (-0.5)
The Cleveland Browns hit the road for the first time in four weeks to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. Cleveland has won back-to-back games, while the Jaguars are looking to snap their 9-game losing streak.
Jacksonville has decided to hand the ball off to Mike Glennon at Quarterback this weekend. The six year NFL vet has started 22 games, has a 6-16 record and just over a 60% completion percentage. Starting his first game in over three years, I don’t see how he leads the Jaguars to victory even if Cleveland will be without Myles Garret this weekend. Entering this weekend the Browns defense is top-five in yards allowed per rushing attempt, and top-fifteen in yards per pass, interceptions, and sacks. I think the pieces are in place to make this another difficult afternoon for the Jaguars.
Baker Mayfield isn’t good enough to last as a starting quarterback in the NFL. You have to take a long hard look in the mirror if you think he makes Cleveland a better football team. Head coach Kevin Stefanski in only his first year as head coach has turned Baker into a system quarterback. He isn’t relying on him to throw the ball 30 times per game and has centered the entire offense around running the football. Just consider these numbers, the Browns are #1 in the NFL in rush play percentage (52.12%), and 32nd in the league in passing play percentage (47.88%). Even though the Jaguars will know that the Browns want to establish the run game, I don’t think they can stop them. They enter allowing an average of 129 rushing yards per game, 24th in the NFL.
Jacksonville is already out of the playoff picture, and are officially in the Trevor Lawerence sweep-stakes. As for Cleveland, they are in a tight race in the AFC North. At 7-3 they are only one game ahead of the Ravens and they can’t afford to stumble in this game. They already have losses against both Pittsburgh and Baltimore this season, and face both again in the final weeks of their season. This is a must win game for Cleveland to keep pace and sets a precedent for the remainder of the year.
For three straight weeks Cleveland has been dealing with wind and weather during their games. They edged the Raiders with 35 mph wind speeds, making passing nearly impossible. Versus the Texans they experienced 25 mph wind speeds. While versus the Eagles last weekend there was consistent rain and an average of 10 mph wind speed.I think these three consecutive weather games have benefited this Browns offense. They have struggled for much of the season, but look for them to crack open the floodgates against Jacksonville this weekend.
Jacksonville will be without their leading run defender, pass rusher, and three of their top cornerbacks due to injuries. While the entire Jaguars defensive coaching staff wasn’t at the training facility all week because of a positive Covid-19 case. Meaning they have been preparing a battered defense, with a secondary coaching staff. Cleveland should hang a number on this team.
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 41 – JAGUARS 20
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5)
6-POINT TEASE – RAMS (-0.5)
The San Francisco 49ers travel to LA this weekend to take on the Los Angeles Rams. San Francisco should be well rested coming off their bye week, and aim to snap a 3 game losing streak. As for Los Angeles, they last played on Monday versus the Buccaneers, and are looking to add onto a two-game win streak.
The Rams haven’t lost a single game at home all season, and I’m extremely skeptical that Nick Mullens and this battered 49ers team will be the first. Mullens is officially the man in San Francisco, according to Kyle Shanahan. He has shown at moments he can be serviceable under centre, but I just don’t know how he pulls a rabbit out of the hat to beat the Rams. In four starts this season Mullins has 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and 2 fumbles. The guy is built to play with a lead, not mobilize a comeback. While the offense is still dealing with the loss of Kittle. I just don’t see how the 49ers contest in the matchup.
Los Angeles made a statement defensively last week. They held Tom Brady and the ultra-talented Buccaneers offense to 24-points. Aaron Donald was all over the field and Jalen Ramsey led the secondary to another strong performance. I’m trying to envision the 49ers scoring points in this game, I just don’t see it. The Rams defense enters 1st in yards allowed per game (291), 1st in yards allowed per pass (5.6), 2nd in points allowed per game (19.2), and 2nd in sacks per game at home this season (4.5). I’ll be surprised if the 49ers are even able to find the end-zone on Sunday.
Jarred Goff doesn’t deserve the massive contract he has. But Sean McVay knows how to make it work with him under centre. The major factor in Goff’s success week to week is protection. If he is able to feel comfortable in the pocket, he can make some magnificent throws. But the second he feels a wince of pressure or gets sacked to the dirt the guy turns into Ryan Leaf. While Kyle Shanahan usually knows how to dial up the pressure, I’m expecting McVay to have a similar game plan as last week, get the ball out of Goff’s hand quickly. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods had monster games versus Tampa Bay. Seeing them roll that confidence into this game would not be surprising. Expect the Rams to roll for a third consecutive week as the injury problems for the 49ers sit front-centre in this matchup.
FINAL SCORE – 49ERS 10 – RAMS 29
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5) VS DENVER BRONCOS
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6-POINT TEASE – SAINTS (-0.5)
For the third game this week I recommend teasing down the Saints from just under field-goal favourites in Denver, to simply win the game outright. Denver is coming off their most impressive win of the year last week versus Miami. While the Saints have won seven straight, and look to make it back-to-back with Taysom Hill as their starting quarterback.
For much of the season Denver has been a team I’ve been behind. I had faith this defense could step up and carry the offensive deficiencies, something they have done in years past. Last weekend they accomplished just that knocking off Miami. I’m just not convinced that this same team can carry over that performance to this weekend versus a much more well rounded Saints team.
Sean Payton is quietly putting together a resume for coach of the season. Drew Brees can’t throw the ball further than 5 yards down field, yet they are winning games with him. While last week Payton put together another dominating coaching performance against Atlanta, with a quarterback that many people argue is actually a tight end or running back. Payton received media backlash after announcing Hill as the starter last weekend, but the numbers don’t lie that it was a good decision. I expected some rinky-dinky wild-cat offense with him under centre, with designed quarterback runs every three plays; but it was the exact opposite. Hill stood under centre and looked like a true pocket passer, completing 18 of 23 attempts for 233 yards and a 108 passer rating. I’m not expecting Hill to blow the doors off Denver this weekend, but he will make the important and correct decisions to take care of the football, forcing Denver to win this game on offense.
Drew Lock has to have a huge game for Denver to win this game, I just don’t see it happening. New Orleans has been playing some fantastic defense this year. They are allowing an average of 302 yards per game, 3rd fewest in the league, and 74 rushing yards per game, 2nd fewest. Denver will be relying heavily on play-action to open up passing lanes, and that just doesn’t happen against this Saints secondary. Lock will be expected to carry the offense to victory in this game, but he isn’t that quarterback and the numbers show it. Lock enters with the second worst average quarterback rating of all players this season at 40.2, and is behind only Carson Wentz in interceptions thrown (11). These numbers should make Broncos fans cringe as New Orleans is top five in both quarterback sacks and interceptions this season. Expect the pressure to be on.
Before their matchup versus Miami, Denver played multiple games where they had the doors blown off their defense. Week seven against the Chiefs they were down 37-9, week eight against the Chargers down 24-3, week nine against Atlanta down 27-6, week ten against Oakland down 30-6. Before last weekend it was four straight weeks were the Broncos found themselves in game down by three touchdowns or more. You can polish a turd all you want, it is still a turd. This Broncos team is a turd, and I’m sure we all see that this weekend.