Week 12 NFL Picks 2011 | Sporting The Winners

Tomorrow is the beginning of American Thanksgiving and what better way to celebrate than a full day of football showcasing 6 teams that all chalked up wins this past weekend. My picks again went 2-2 for a 5th week in a row. In my defense I feel that the Vikings/Oakland game could have turned out extremely different had Adrian Peterson played the entire game. As for my excuse for the Gaints? I don’t have one, Philly’s defense played great and so did Vince Young. Who would’a thought they would swagger into New York and keep their slim playoff hopes alive? Apparently not me. With that I’ve decided this week I would make picks for all of tomorrows games, I now sit at 14-10 and I’m looking for my picks this week to improve my record. Lets take a look at tomorrows games;

GAME 1

GREEN BAY (-6.5) @ DETROIT

For the first thanksgiving game tomorrow I am going with Detroit to keep this a close game within 6.5 points at home. I am aware this is a bold prediction with Green Bay still undefeated to this point in the season but I think last week we saw several signs of weakness; they could have easily lost at home to Tampa Bay. Had the Bucs completed their two point conversion in the 4th quarter to make it a one score game it might have played out totally different. The interception on Green Bay’s last drive with 2 minutes left would have then meant Tampa Bay driving to put it into overtime. Nobody thought that game would be that close with the spread set at -15.5 for Green Bay; this week is going to being an even tougher task for the Pack.

The last 2 thanksgiving games these two have played Green Bay is 2-0. In 2009 the Packers came into Detroit and won 34-12 and in 2007 they won 37-26. This trend is going to end tomorrow mark my words, we will see the undefeated Packers; undefeated no more. Expect this game to be high scoring with the Lions ranked #3 in the league in offensive scoring and Green Bay #1. There will be tons of points put up and touchdowns to be had all around on both offenses. Aaron Rodgers will be on his game spreading the ball around as usual to his endless amount of offensive weapons but not without some difficulty. Detroit ranks 4th in the league against the pass and I expect them to give Rodgers a good challenge this week.

As for the Lions offense I like Matt Stafford to have another huge game this week. We saw what he did last week to the 17th ranked pass defense, I can’t wait to see what he does to the 31st ranked pass defense this week. Stafford is going to have his way and Megatron should have another huge game. Look for these two to put on a show at Ford Field tomorrow, with Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings keeping it close. This is a huge divisional matchup and Detroit will prove their power when they post a win and ruin the Packers hopes of an undefeated season.

FINAL – GREEN BAY 34 – DETROIT 37

GAME 2

MIAMI @ DALLAS (-7.5)

For the afternoon game being played tomorrow I like Dallas to cover -7.5 at home against a Miami team that has won their last 3. This team is coming in hot but their wins have come off some of the worst teams in the leagues. They beat Kansas City; a team that has lost 3 straight; Buffalo losers of 3 in a row and a Washington team at is 0-7 in their last 7 games. Dallas is a much better team than any of Miami’s previous 3 opponents and it should be seen tomorrow. Miami is ranked 11th in the league at stopping the run and 13th at stopping the pass; meaning Matt Moore is going to have his work cut out for him. He did rack up 3 TD’s last week, but don’t forget that almost every single one of those came off Ryan Fitzpatricks 2 interceptions inside their own 20. Look for him to get shut down this week as Rob Ryan’s throws some creative defensive plays his way exploiting his inexperience and Miami’s overrated offense.

So what about that Cowboys offense you ask? Tony Romo has been red hot in the last 4 thanksgiving starts he has seen. He has gone 83-120 throwing for 1,141 yards, 12 Touchdowns and just 2 inceptions. Last season they were defeated 30-27 by New Orleans but Romo didn’t see the field with his broken collarbone. This thanksgivng look for Romo to exploit Miami’s 25th ranked pass defense and score the first touchdown against this team in november. Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson and Jason Witten should all get several looks and if that isn’t enough DeMarco Murray should keep the ground game going averaging a league best 6.7 yards a carry. He should keep his average of 115 yards a game up and the return of Felix Jones should only benefit him. This thursday the Dolphin’s will look like the team that we saw at the beginning of the season; freeing the way for a rout by the Cowboys in Dallas. Miami’s defense has played great this month, Romo usually shines in november, expect tomorrow to be no different.

FINAL – MIAMI 13 – DALLAS 27

GAME 3

SAN FRANCISCO @ BALTIMORE (-3.5)

This game I think will be the game of the week to watch, it could even turn out to be the game of the season. It should prove whether the 49ners are a real contender this year to win the Superbowl because although they are 9-1 to this day, 3 of their last 4 wins have come against terrible teams in Arizona, Washington, and Cleveland. Now this isn’t just a big game for San Fran but it’s huge for the Ravens also. We will see whether they can compete with the best in the league also. The AFC North is by far the best division in football with the Ravens 7-3, Steelers 7-3, and Bengals at 6-4. All three of these teams could make the playoffs and this is an important game for Baltimore if they want to stay atop this grouping of good teams.

Looking at both these prospective teams, San Fran ranks 1st at stopping the run and 23rd at stopping the pass. With Baltimore not far behind ranking 5th in rush defense and 7th in the pass. The key to this game not being extremely low scoring will be for both teams to establish their running backs and pick up yardage early. If Ray Rice can’t get his run game going; knowing how he is the focal point of this offense, the Ravens will look much like they did in their recent loss to Jacksonville on monday night. If the 49ners shut down the run it will greater their chances of winning and they should only improve on their 15 interceptions this season.

As for Alex Smith and the 49ners offense, they will need Frank Gore to show up and show up big this week. Expect him and Kendall Hunter to time-share as we’ve seen in the last couple weeks and be relied upon heavy to get their offense moving. Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis will also get several looks once the Ravens secondary opens up. Smith should get at least 1 TD on the day and David Akers should add to his league leading 23 field goals on the year. This game is going to be a ground and pound game with both teams playing tough defense. A shocker to me was how Baltimore is favored in this game with the 49ners at 9-1 and winning 8 straight. Once they stuff Ray Rice a couple times it will force Flacco into mistakes as per usual. Put your money on San Fran folks. If that isn’t enough the 49ners are 9-0-1 against the spread this year; while Baltimore is a measly 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread. I like the 49ners to keep their win streak going; while the AFC North continues to be the tightest division in football this year.

FINAL – SAN FRANCISCO 22 – BALTIMORE 16