Last weekend was a rollercoaster. My predictions finished at 3-1 for a second consecutive week, bumping me to 6-2 for the post-season. Philadelphia and New England covered on Saturday to put me at 2-0. While Pittsburgh got my Sunday started off poor giving up 45 points and failing to advance to AFC Conference Championship. But the real excitement came in Minnesota. What is now being coined as the “Minneapolis Miracle” earned me my third and final cover of the weekend. I would be lying if I didn’t think that the Vikings were going to lose that game after blowing a 17-point lead. But the 61-yard touchdown pass Keenum threw to Diggs changed all of that and kept the Vikings Super Bowl aspirations alive. Karma is best served cold, and you can bet that Sean Payton deserved that after beginning to mock the Vikings crowd before the final seconds had ticked down in the game. We might never witness another play like that in our lifetimes, and I’d be perfectly fine with that because it put my Vikings on top, and one step closer to cashing in my Vikings 2017 Super Bowl Champion ticket. Lets take a look at which side of the ball I’ll be on this weekend.
AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP – 12:05 PST
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-8.5)
Surprise surprise, the Patriots are back in the Conference Championship for a 7th straight season. 7TH STRAIGHT SEASON. It is absurd what New England has built. If they win it all this year building a case that they have built the best dynasty in professional sports ever is easy. As for Jacksonville, they have to be happy just to make it this far. As I briefly touched upon last weekend, the Jaguars are incredible on the defensive side of the football – and will need that to advance to their first ever Super Bowl. I just don’t see how they are going to shut down Tom Brady, and this Patriots offense.
Rob Gronkowski is going to be the difference maker in this game. He is by far the best tight end in the league and I just don’t know how the Jaguars are going to be able to cover him. One statistic really jumps out when looking into the connection between Gronk & Brady. During the regular season Gronkowski has 69 receptions for 1,084 yards. But the real kicker is 82.6% of Gronk’s catches earned the Patriots a 1st down. Out of every single receiver in the league with more than 60 catches, only Mike Evans was close to Gronkowski with a 1st down on 77.5% of his catches. If Brady starts feeling the connection to Gronkowski early then the Jaguars are done. The Patriots have Brandon Cooks to stretch the field and keep the Jaguars defensive backs honest. While just about any other player on this offense can have a big performance as evident by Danny Amendola’s 11 catch, 112 yard game against the Titans in the divisional round. I know that eight and a half points is a lot to lay in this situation, but tell me this – do you really feel confident betting against Brady and the Patriots in Foxborough during the playoffs? Last weekend they were blowing out Tennessee in the third quarter and Brady still finished the entire game. There was no reason they had to keep him on the field, or that Bill Belichick had to throw a challenge flag late in the game. This team goes pedal to the metal each and every weekend and don’t take their foot off the gas until the full 60 minutes is up.
When is Blake Bortles going to turn into a pumpkin? I am ready to admit that last weekend Bortles was the sole reason that Jaguars advanced. He was up and down the field on the Steelers all day and that is evident by the 45-points they scored. Their defense, which was supposed to be the strength allowed Pittsburgh to lay 42-points down, and score two touchdowns of 36+ yards on 4th down. It was Bortles that kept Jacksonville ahead in this game, and trusting him to do the same thing in back-to-back weeks would be outrageous. Since starting at quarterback for the Jaguars, Bortles is 1-3 in games after Jacksonville scores 38 or more points, and has thrown at least one interception in every single game except one. You just can’t trust him to lead this team back when they find themselves in a deficient, and I full expect them to be in that situation this weekend. The success that Jacksonville has found in the last two playoff games is due to their ability to keep the game close. I’m expecting Bortles will experience the full extent of pressure in this game, and they will be playing from behind most of the afternoon. I just don’t know how you can put all your marbles in the Jaguars basket in this situation. Lay the points with the Patriots.
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 17 – PATRIOTS 34
NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP – 3:40 PST
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Minneapolis miracle will go down as one of the greatest finishes in playoff history. You can bet that the Vikings are ecstatic to come out on top in that situation. But the big deciding factor for this matchup will be their preparation following such an incredible victory. I’ve got my marbles in the Minnesota basket again this weekend, coach Zimmer is quickly earning a designation as one of the best coaches in the NFL and I’m expecting he has the Vikings more than prepared for this game. Entering Philadelphia and playing in an outdoor stadium will not be easy, but if anyone can knock off the Eagles in this situation it is the Vikings. Minnesota might be a dome team, but they play at least two games outdoors each year in Chicago and Green Bay. This year they finished a combined 2-0 in those games, while managing to shut-out the Packers 16-0 in week sixteen. I’m looking at the quarterback play to be the real difference in this game – and the Vikings have the advantage in my books.
Nick Foles or Case Keenum? You’ve got to like Keenum to pull out a win in this spot over Foles. Last weekend against the Falcons Foles played just well enough to earn the Eagles a victory. But things could have gone very different. Late in the second quarter Foles threw a sloppy pass over the middle that Falcon’s safety Keanu Neal should have picked off but he brought his legs up and the ball bounced off his knee into the hands of Eagles receiver Torrey Smith. I’m sure that nearly every single person on this planet has seen the play. If Foles had been intercepted in that position, the Falcons would have had the ball in great field position to take a 13-6 lead entering half-time. Instead the Eagles progressed and kicked a 53-yard field goal with time expiring to be down only 1-point at half-time. Drastically changing the outcome of this game the way I saw it.
The most important thing to follow in this game will be the Eagles offense ability to convert on third down. If Wentz was still under center this wouldn’t even been a topic of concern, he finished the season 1st in passer rating and conversion percentage on 3rd down out of every quarterback in the entire league. He helped the Eagles convert at least 50% of their third downs in half the games he started. Since Foles has taken over, the Eagles are converting just 23% of the time on third-down, including a terrible 1-17 on third downs to finish the regular season. This is HUGE for this matchup. As I briefly touched upon this last weekend – the Vikings are the best defense in the entire league on third down. They held opponents to an NFL record 25.12% conversion percentage on third-down this season. I understand that the Eagles have a very strong run game and a good offensive line, but at some point Foles is going to be called upon to convert in third-and-long situations and I just don’t see how he can. The Vikings defense was pitching a shut-out versus one of the best quarterback’s of all time at half-time last week – and don’t even get me started on the Eagles having a strong running game. Minnesota had zero problem shutting down the two headed monster of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara last weekend, the best running back tandem in NFL history. Slowing down LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi should be no problem this weekend. Minnesota is 2nd in rushing yards allowed per game (83.4) and 1st in average rushing first downs allowed per game (3.8). This team is built to stop the run and will force Foles to become a huge factor, I just don’t see how he can come close to do anything that Drew Brees accomplished last weekend. Something I think will be necessary to defeat the Vikings.
If Nick Foles isn’t able to complete on third-downs, then it simply means that the Eagles defense will be on the field for a large portion of the game. That should be concerning for Eagles fans. I am well aware that Philadelphia had a very impressive defense this season, but much of those laurels have lied upon a Carson Wentz led offense. More time on the field for the Eagles defense more mistakes, more missed coverages, and tired defensive players. Minnesota is the better team on both sides of the ball in this situation. Don’t be surprised when they hold a weak Eagles offense to less than double-digits.