Anyone else cash in on divisional weekend? If you let it ride on my predictions, you should have all made a pretty penny. I closed out the best weekend in football by going a perfect 4-0. I called the Falcons beatdown of the Seahawks, the Patriots thrashing of the Texans, the Packers upset over the Cowboys, and the Steelers snubbing of the Chiefs. With a perfect weekend notched on the belt, my playoff record is an incredible 7-1 this year. Everyone aboard, this money train is full steam ahead and I don’t expect it to slow down anytime soon. In the last three seasons my conference championship and Super Bowl predictions have gone a combined 6-3. Lets jump right into it.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+5) VS ATLANTA FALCONS
The Atlanta Falcons (12-5) and Green Bay Packers (12-6) meet on Sunday to decide who advances to Super Bowl 51 from the NFC. It’s been well documented that the Packers are piping hot right now. They defined all odds and knocked off the 13-3 Dallas Cowboys at home, handing Vegas bookmakers one of their biggest losing weekends in recent history. It was speculated that nearly 90% of the moneyline action was on Green Bay, taking the bookmakers for a bath when they won 34-31. As for Atlanta, they also benefited from the Packers fortune, they earned the right to host another home game. With Dallas eliminated the Falcons stay put and could earn a Super Bowl bid without having to leave the state of Georgia. Some of you might recall the first meeting between these two this season. Atlanta won 33-32 on a Matty Ryan touchdown pass to Mohamed Sanu with less than 30 seconds left in the 4th quarter. Enough time on the clock for Aaron Rodgers, but he failed to pull the rabbit out of his hat like he did against the Cowboys this past weekend. Oddsmakers are listing the Falcons as 5-point home favourites for this game, with the over/under being placed at 60 points.
60 points, that total is officially the highest over/under for a playoff game in NFL history. The previous record was 59.5 in the 2011 WildCard game between the Saints and Lions, and the result ultimately smashed the 60 point mark as New Orleans won 45-28. I’m a believer the same thing is going to happen this weekend. This game could very well replicate the midseason matchup we witnessed between these two. I’m not expecting any different outcome this around, it’s going to be a tight game right until the finish.
It would take a force a nature to stop Aaron Rodgers right now. The man is on a mission and could easily put the Packers on his back again this weekend. For that reason, I’m taking the points and the Packers in this game. Atlanta has had tremendous success all season, they have arguably the most lethal offense in the league, but the real back breaker is their secondary. Coming into this game Atlanta has allowed their opposition to average of 263.7 passing yards per game, (27th) to convert 41.78% of the time on third down, (26th) and 70.69% of the time inside the red-zone for a touchdown (31st). They have had major defensive deficiencies this season and an incredible offense has been able to mask those issues. But I suspect they won’t be able to hide from those demons this weekend. It will take a flawless performance to keep Rodgers and the Packers offense out of the end-zone multiple times this weekend.
Earlier this season when these two met the Falcons were listed as only 3-point favourites, and to be totally honest if the line was exactly the same this weekend I would be laying the points with Atlanta. 5-points is simply to many points to pass up with how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been playing lately. With that being said, I think that Atlanta is going to advance to their first Super Bowl since 1998. The Falcons offense has been equally unstoppable this season and the Packers defense has been equally as unimpressive as the Falcons. Entering this game they are 30th in the league allowing 7.5 yards per completion and 31st giving up an average of 271.9 passing yards per game. These two numbers really jump out because Atlanta has had such a lethal passing game this season. They currently are the 3rd best passing offense averaging 296.9 passing yards per game while Matt Ryan had them averaging a league best 13.26 yards per completion this year. I just don’t know how the Packers secondary is going to adjust and shut them down. Atlanta can score from just about anywhere on the field in the blink of an eye and their receivers are best in the league with yards after the catch, averaging 6.37 yards after the catch. Green Bay has a very similar offense but the absence of Jordy Nelson is going to be felt this weekend. I’m expecting Rodgers to keep this game manageable but the Falcons to come out with a victory.
I’m sorry to say the Packers historic run comes to an end this weekend. Few players can lift an entire organization to victory like Aaron Rodgers. The key matchup to watch in this game will be the how the Packers offensive line protects Rodgers against Vic Beasley. Beasley finished the year leading the league in sacks and is really coming into his own. The only difference this weekend is Aaron Rodgers is capable of escaping the pass rush and throwing dimes on the run better than anyone else in this league. I’m all in on this matchup becoming an all-out score fest. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in their last 6 games. While Atlanta has scored 33 or more in each of their last 5. To see this game end anywhere under 60 points would be shocking to me. I’ll be riding Green Bay on the spread this weekend, its just to hard to pass up 5-points with Rodgers. But on moneyline, give me the Falcons. This is going to be one hell of a football game.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 playoff games
- 5-0 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- Over is 6-0 in the Packers last 6 games
ATLANTA
- 9-18 against the spread as a favourite the last three seasons
- 2-4 against the spread versus the NFC North division the last three seasons
- 5-2 straight up when a favourite between 3.5.-9.5 points this year
- 8-3 straight up as a favourite this season
- Over is 10-0 when Atlanta is a favourite this season
FINAL SCORE – PACKERS 35 – FALCONS 38
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+6) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The New England Patriots (15-2) and Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) square off on Sunday night for the AFC Conference title. Pittsburgh should be well prepared for this matchup as they hosted New England at Heinz Field earlier this year. New England handed them a 27-16 defeat covering the 7.5-point spread listed, but Pittsburgh was without one of their killer B’s. Ben Roethlisberger missed the game with a knee injury. With him back in the lineup for this game it creates a whole different Steelers offense. Still no surprise here with bookmakers listing the Patriots as 6-point home favourites for their 6th straight AFC conference championship appearance.
New England just keeps chugging along. Most organizations would be happy to simply make the AFC conference championship, but for New England it is Super Bowl or bust. Making their sixth straight appearance in the AFC championship game is miraculous and speaks wonders to Tom Brady and the Patriots dominance, but Pittsburgh can’t be taken lightly. The Steelers have been playing incredible lately and their current 9 game win streak speaks to that. They knocked off Kansas city last weekend despite not scoring a single touchdown, and have arguably the best wide receiver/running back combination in the league. I’m taking the Patriots to advance in this matchup, but love the points oddsmakers are laying on Pittsburgh. This is going to be another very close game.
All the sports world has been talking about this week is Antonio Brown and his social media antics following the Steelers win over the Chiefs. This has clearly put a target on Browns back. You can bet that Mike Tomlin pulled Brown into his office following the video being released, and told him that his performance this weekend will define whether the media continues to carry this story. A similar situation happened a couple weeks ago with Odell Beckham on a boat in Florida prior to their WildCard matchup in Green Bay, and we all know how that game finished. Beckham was in the limelight all week long and had multiple dropped balls in his first playoff appearance. With that being said, I don’t expect the same voodoo effect on Brown. I’m looking for him to step up to the plate and knock the ball out of the park this weekend. In their first meeting Brown had 7 catches on 11 targets for 107 yards, with Landry Jones throwing him the ball. Big Ben throwing him the ball will make all the difference, and that will be seen on Sunday. Brown should easily finish this game with 100 yards and at least one touchdown.
New England’s defense has not been challenged for the better part of this season. They finished with incredible numbers, most notably allowing the fewest points per game this year, (15.6) but they have not faced an explosive offense such as Pittsburgh all year. In seventeen games this year they faced only one opponent that finished inside the top ten scoring per game this year, and only three inside the top fifteen. Every other opponent they faced finished the season in the bottom half of the league in scoring per game this year. New England has had an easy streak this year and Pittsburgh will be the team to prove whether this secondary this fact or fiction. Seattle put up 31-points against this Patriots team earlier this season in FoxBorough. Pittsburgh has a much more lethal offense, the true test is how their defense responds.
The Patriots have utterly dominated opponents this year because of their offense. But one area that receives little praise is their ability to take care of the football. They finished best in the league with only 11 turnovers all season. Yes last weekend, they had two turnovers in the first last half against Houston. Pittsburgh will have to attack this area and make Tom Brady uncomfortable inside the pocket to have a shot in this game. Denver succeeded in doing exactly this last season and left Foxborough 20-18 victors, on route to winning Super Bowl 50. Pittsburgh definitely doesn’t have the defense that Denver or Houston does, but they’ve been unsung heroes in the last couple weeks. Roethlisberger has thrown only 11 touchdowns and has 9 interceptions during the Steelers current 9 game winning streak. It has been the defense that has picked up the slack and kept this team in football game.
Rob Gronkowski is done for the season. I have not seen a single person discuss what that means for this matchup. In their week seven matchup Gronkowski finished with four catches, 93 yards and a touchdown. He is the best playmaker on the Patriots and while they have excelled without him in the lineup, his loss is undeniably a blow to the Patriots offensive strength. Last weekend versus Houston the Patriots offense looked shaky at times and were unable to find any rhythm. Gronkowski was a guy that aided in those efforts. I’m expecting the Steelers to give the Patriots offensive line fits this weekend, and keep this a close football game until the clock strikes zero.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 21-7-2 against the spread in their last 30 road games versus a team with a winning home record
- 13-3-3 against the spread in their last 19 games in January
- 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a straight up win
NEW ENGLAND
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 conference championship games
FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 25 – PATRIOTS 27
This is a tricky weekend. I’m favouring both underdogs to cover the spread, but for the Falcons and Patriots to ultimately advance to the Super Bowl in Houston. Surely anything can happen, but outside of picking winners their is several value bets this weekend that deserve a consideration. Here are a couple wagers outside the PointSpread this weekend that I’ll be circling.
TRIBET – ANY OTHER RESULT FALCONS/PACKERS (2.84/1)
To cash out on a tribet between the Falcons and Packers the final score will have to be within 5 points. Earlier this season when these two teams squared off the game was decided by 1-point. It might not be exactly that close this weekend, but to witness the clock strike zero in this game and a winner be crowned by more than 5-points would be surprising in my books. These two teams match up perfectly, they’ve got unstoppable offenses and weaker than average defensive squads. Some of you might remember I advised you to bet on this same result between the Patriots and Broncos in the AFC Championship game last season, and it cashed out. Denver ultimately won by 2-points 20-18. Paying out almost 3/1, this bet has much more value than a point spread wager which pays almost 2/1.
LONGEST TOUCHDOWN SCORE – FALCONS/PACKERS – OVER 47.5 (1.83/1)
48 yards seems like a lot, but both of these quarterbacks can throw the ball downfield better than most in the league. We’ve all seen the hail mary magic that Aaron Rodgers has pulled off. Matt Ryan isn’t far behind and has Julio Jones, one of the fastest receivers in the league. Both these teams have big play ability and secondaries that have been torched for the better part of this year. We should see at least one 50+ yard touchdown play this weekend.
WINNING MARGIN – PITTSBURGH 1-6 POINTS OVER NEW ENGLAND (5.5/1)
Above I professed how I’m convinced New England is going to win this weekend. But if you’re on the opposite side of the fence about this game then you shouldn’t pass up on this bet. If Pittsburgh wins this game it will not be a blowout, it will be a very close finish. I can’t remember the last time New England got blown out at home in the playoffs. If you think the Steelers can provide an upset this weekend then you cannot pass up on this. After all it is paying almost 6/1 right now.
OVER 60 POINTS – FALCONS PACKERS (1.90/1)
This should come as not surprise. I’m more confident this is going to be a score fest than anything else this weekend. 60 points is an incredibly high number, but consider this. The Falcons last 5 game point totals have been 66, 54, 49, 70, 56. While the Packers last 5 include 57, 63, 55, 52 and 65. Many of those games have not eclipsed 60 points, but in the last 5 weeks neither team has been held under 30 points. I’m looking for there to be about 45 points by half-time.
LE’VEON BELL – UNDER 117 TOTAL YARDS RUSHING (1.90/1)
This line is ludicrous. I fully understand that Bell has exploded in the post-season but expecting him to go over 120 yards against the Patriots is unrealistic. New England finished the year 5th in the league against the rush, giving up only 89.5 total yards per game. Bell is capable of peeling off big runs, and others have his style of running, but I think it will be the Pittsburgh passing game that has more effectiveness this weekend. Le’Veon will get his, it just won’t be 118 rushing yards.