Here I stand, limping in the post-season. My week seventeen predictions finished a combined 1-3. My sole winning pick was Green Bay over Detroit on Sunday night to clinch the NFC North title and home field advantage in the first round. While my three losing predictions included the Bills, San Diego and Atlanta. Buffalo and the Chargers both got blown out, while Atlanta sacrificed a 38-13 lead and allowed New Orleans to score 19 4th quarter points to come back and cover the 7-point spread. As we trot into the post-season, my regular season record finished at 35-29-2. Not a record that I am particularly proud of, but it is a winning season none the less. With four games on the table this weekend lets jump right into it.
OAKLAND RAIDERS VS HOUSTON TEXANS (-3.5)
The Oakland Raiders (12-4) travel south to take on the Houston Texans (9-7) for the first WildCard game this weekend. Oakland is finally back in the playoffs after a 15 year drought, but they are limping in without MVP candidate Derek Carr. As for Houston, they have had quarterback struggles themselves, but come into this game with a 7-1 record at home this year. Oddsmakers have listed the Texans as 3.5-point favourites for this early afternoon wildcard matchup, with a total set of 36.5 points expected.
Oakland fans have got to be ecstatic that on Saturday morning when they wake up, their football team will be playing a meaningful football game for the first time in 15 years. But they cannot be happy that Connor Cook will be leading the charge. After Derek Carr suffered a broken fibula during the Raiders Christmas eve game, their Super Bowl aspirations took a serious nose dive. Without Carr in the lineup this team is not the same. Carr is easily responsible for the eight 30-point games that Oakland’s offense put up this year. He is the most important piece of their offense. I won’t deny that Amare Cooper is one of the best receivers in the league, or that the offensive line has done a great job in protection and run blocking this year, but no Carr is a back breaker. Conner Cook is a rookie quarterback with zero NFL experience. The last meaningful game Cook started was in the 2015 Cotton Bowl where Alabama rolled(tide) over his Michigan State Spartans 31-0. This kid is becoming the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to make his first career start in a playoff game. This right here, makes me a firm believer Houston will win this game.
I’ve been all over Brock Osweiler all season long. If you ask me, the guy is amongst the 5 worst quarterbacks in the league. His numbers have been embarrassing this season, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t get the job done versus the Raiders secondary. Oakland is well below average when analyzing them defensively. The only exceptionally talented player on the defensive side is Kahlil Mack. The Raiders finished the year near the bottom of the league in nearly every important statical category; 26th giving up over 375 total yards of offense per game, 32nd allowing over 6 yards per play, 24th in the red-zone allowing a touchdown 57.89% of the time, and 25th allowing nearly 3 touchdowns per game. Unless Kahlil Mack can find a way to put this entire team on his back for this game, Houston simply has to play smart disciplined football and they’ll win this game by at least 4 points.
In case some of you have forgotten these two teams met in November in Mexico City for a Monday Night matchup. It turned out to be the referees that cost Houston a shot at winning the game after two very important blown calls. The first, a pass by Osweiler in the first quarter to DeAndre Hopkins that should have gone for a touchdown but was blown dead for no apparent reason. The second, a 4th & 1 situation that looked clear as day a first down for Houston, but instead was call short and turner over two the Raiders. These two plays drastically affected the outcome of the game, but so did Derek Carr. Carr threw a 75-yard touchdown pass and a 35-yard touchdown pass in the 4th quarter to give Oakland the victory. I can’t picture a universe where that same outcome happens this weekend with Connor Cook. Houston could easily hold the Raiders under 10-points this weekend. They finished the year 1st in yards allowed per game as 301.3, 6th in yards per play at 5.1, and 8th in the red-zone at 52.27%. I’m not confident on Osweiler to lead the Texans to victory, but I am confident their defense will play a phenomenal game behind their home crowd. Houston wins and advances to the divisional round.
TRENDS
OAKLAND
- 0-1 against the spread as an underdog between 3.5-9.5 points this season
- 59-74 against the spread off a divisional game since 1992
- 4-6 against the spread versus Houston since 1992
HOUSTON
- 14-5 against the spread in the last three seasons as a favourite
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as a home favourite
FINAL SCORE – RAIDERS 13 – TEXANS 23
DETROIT LIONS (+9) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) and Detroit Lions (9-7) kick-off at 8:15PM EST at CenturyLink to decide who advances to the divisional round next weekend. Seattle officially won the NFC West title for the third time in four years, but at 3-3 in their last 6 games limped into the post-season. As for Detroit, things could not have gone much worse to end the year. They held a two game lead over Green Bay with three weeks left and ended up going 0-3 to finish the year 9-7, and only earned a wildcard position because Washington shot themselves in the foot. Oddsmakers have listed the Seahawks as massive 8-point home favourites for this WildCard matchup, with a total set of 43-points expected.
I haven’t been sold on Seattle all season long. This is not the team from the past and injuries have decimated them defensively. Kam Chancellor after missed much of the season due to a groin injury and is now dealing with an ankle injury. While Earl Thomas, the heart and sole of this team has been out the last four weeks after suffering a broken leg. Without Thomas in the lineup, this team has been struggling, and the numbers do not lie. Through weeks 1-13 with Thomas in the lineup Seattle was allowing 16.2 points per game, in weeks 14-17 without him they gave up 24.5 points per game. This defense has a completely different feel without Thomas over the top and Detroit could very well expose that weakness again this weekend. The Lions are limping into this game, but lets not forget that Seattle squeaked by a weak San Francisco team by only 2-points in week seventeen. Seattle hasn’t won a single game this season versus a playoff team by more than 8-points. While Detroit lost only two games all year by more than 8-points. This game has Detroit covers written all over it.
Matthew Stafford is the driving force behind Detroit’s success. Without Stafford the Lions would not even be sniffing the playoffs, never mind playing in the Wild Card round. The Lions haven’t had a successful rushing game all season to back him up, but that has changed in the last couple weeks because of Zack Zenner. Zenner is an undrafted rookie out of South Dakota State and has been integral player for Detroit in the last three weeks. He has combined for 266 total yards, three touchdowns and has the versatility to catch passes out of the backfield. Something Stafford has missed all season long. I’m looking for Zenner to have another good performance this weekend and expose a Seattle secondary that has allowed nearly 12 yards per passing completion in the last three weeks (26th).
TRENDS
DETRIOT
- 5-3 against the spread versus Seattle since 1992
- 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous outing
- 8-3 against the spread after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game
SEATTLE
- 2-4 against the spread as a favourite between 3.5-9.5 points this season
- 3-5 against the spread versus NFC North opponents in the last three seasons
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 playoff games
- 0-4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 16 – SEAHAWKS 19
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-10)
The Miami Dolphins (10-6) and Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) meet in the post-season for the first time since 1985 this weekend. Pittsburgh will be looking to improve upon their 3-0 playoff record against the Dolphins and advance past the WildCard round in consecutive seasons. As for Miami, after starting the year 1-4 it is a miracle they are here. Head Coach Adam Gase led the Dolphins to a 9-2 record down the stretch to earn their first post-season appearance in 8 years. Oddsmaker has made the Steelers large 10-point home favourites at Hienz field, with the over/under being placed at 45-points.
If you told me before the start of this season that Miami was going to earn a WildCard spot this year, I would have laughed. I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t think the Dolphins had a chance. I’ll also be the first to admit that I don’t think the Dolphins have a chance in this game. Pittsburgh has the depth, they’ve got a future hall of fame quarterback, the ability to strike from anywhere on the field, a defense that has been playing much improved. Additionally, we shouldn’t ignore the fact Pittsburgh will enter this game on two full weeks of rest as the starters didn’t touch the field on week seventeen. The Dolphins cannot say the same. They played all of their starters last week versus the Patriots and didn’t even come close to contesting. I’m looking for a similar outing again this weekend.
Home field advantage. Everyone wants it and for some teams it has a larger meaning that others. This game is a perfect example. If Pittsburgh travelled to Miami to take on the Dolphins at the Hard Rock Stadium we wouldn’t think much of it. But that isn’t the case. Miami has to travel north of the wall and play a very talented Pittsburgh team in their home stadium, outdoors, amongst every element mother nature has to offer. As of Thursday the forecast for this game is partly cloudy with a temperature of 18 degrees and a wind speed of 11mph. That is brisk, and will almost certainly affect the Miami fanbase turnout and the Dolphins performance in this game. List me five people you know in Miami that own a pair of winter boots, you cant. Just remember this, Miami has not played a single game all season long under 30 Farenhieight. Pittsburgh on the other hand has played 5 straight games in 40 degrees or colder, and have a 5-0 record during the same stretch. This team is crafted for cold weather.
Big Roethlisberger will be making his 16th career playoff start. Matt Moore will be making his first. Experience in these situations mean a lot and that will be displayed this weekend. I could go on and on about the depth the Steelers have on offense, or their ability to score from anywhere on the field, but thats not necessary. What is necessary is discussing the Dolphins injuries Entering this game both starting cornerbacks Byron Maxwell and Tony Lippett are listed on the injury report. During the season these two combined for 26 starts, 25 passes defended, 6 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles. If you ask me, this is a major concern. Miami will have to hold the Steelers to under 20 points this weekend to have any chance at victory. Pittsburgh is 11-1 when scoring 20 points or more this season, and 1-4 when they fail to eclipse the 20 point mark.
TRENDS
MIAMI
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 playoff games
- 7-16 against the spread in their last 24 games following an against the spread loss
- 3-7 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games after scoring less than 15-points in their previous game
PITTSBURGH
- 2-0 against the spread as a home favourite between 7.5-10 points the last two seasons
- 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 playoff home games
FINAL SCORE – DOLPHINS 17 – STEELERS 36
NEW YORK GIANTS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4.5)
The New York Giants (11-5) and Green Bay Packers (10-6) meet this weekend in what most are labelling the best WildCard game this weekend. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:40PM EST, and will be a rematch from the regular season. These two met in week five in Lambeau Field and the Packers went on to win 23-16, covering the exact 7-point spread that Oddsmakers had them listed as. This time around the Packers are only 4.5-point home favourites, with the over/under being placed at 44.5 points.
New York has had an incredible season. After a 2-3 start they went on to win nine of their last eleven games and earn a post-season birth for the first time in five years. The last two times the Giants played in the WildCard round, they ran the table and won two Super Bowl titles. If you’re expecting me to confess that the same thing will happen this year then you best look away. I don’t want to take away from the incredible season the Giants have had, but their defense has carried them, and if you are expecting them to contain the Packers at home you’re dreaming. Green Bay was held to fewer than 23-points at Lambeau only once this season. They lost that game, but in every other outing the scored 24 points or more, finished 6-1, and won by at least 7 points in every single victory. The outcome of this game lies on the shoulders of the Giants secondary and pass rush, two areas which are banged up.
Jason Pierre Paul, Janoris Jenkins and Cody Sensabaugh are just a few players that are currently listed on the Giants injury report. The Giants defensive talent runs much deeper than these three guys, but they’ll need all hands on deck to slow down the Packers this weekend. It’s been well documented that Green Bay won 6 straight to sneak into the playoffs, and it should come as no surprise that the offense is to thank. During their current streak they have scored an average of 30 points per game, and scored 38-points in each of their last two home games. Rodgers has vaulted his name into MVP consideration with 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions across this span, and the offense has looked unstoppable. If the Giants cannot contain the Packers offense and keep this a low scoring game then their chances of advancing are slim to none. New York is 11-1 when they hold their opponents to 23 points or less this season, but a terrible 0-4 when giving up 24 points or more.
Lets say for imagination purposes the Giants cannot hold the Packers under 24-points this weekend. Then their chances of advancing in this game drastically decline. Which leaves the door open to ask this question, can Eli Manning and the offense be relied upon to lift them to victory? In previous years the Giants offense has done just that. But this year Manning has struggled and the run game has been zero assistance, an area which Eli leaned on for the Giants two previous Super Bowl runs. Eli Manning finished the season with a 16 interceptions and average quarterback rating of 52.2. Those 16 picks gave him the 5th most in the league this year, while his rating finished higher than only Blake Bortles, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum. He has not been reliable this year and as I’ve already mentioned, the run game has zero reliability this season. They finished the season 30th in the league averaging only 3.5 yards per carry, and 29th in yards per game at 88.2. With the Packers defense finally healthy and starting to jell, I don’t see how the Giants keep this a football game. This game has huge implications on Rodgers legacy and is a must win game for nearly everyone in this organization. If the Packers go one-and-done it will be another year of Rodgers prime wasted. They cannot afford that, and I’m more than confident this team will be ready for the task. Expect a close game at half-time but for the Packers to run away with it late in the third quarter.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
1-8-2 against the spread in their last 11 road games versus teams with a winning record
1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
GREEN BAY
4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games
18-7-2 against the spread in their last 27 games as a home favourite between 3.5-10 points
4-0 against the spread in their last 4 WildCard games