31-25-2. That’s where my record sittings following fifteen weeks of football. Last weekend I chalked up yet another 2-2 record. The Giants and Steelers contributed for my two winning predictions of the weekend. While the Vikings got absolutely obliterated, and Green Bay allowed Chicago to sneak back into the game after a 17-point fourth quarter lead for my two losing predictions. With only two weeks of football remaining and barring a complete meltdown, my record should finish above .500 for the fifth time in six years of making predictions. Before I jump into the games I’m favouring this weekend, here is a little recap of last weekend and how the playoffs are beginning to shape up.
- Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona and Philadelphia have all been officially eliminated from the playoff picture. This will be the first time in over five years that neither the Cardinals or Bengals will be making a post-season appearance.
- The Miami Dolphins decimated the New York Jets on Saturday Night football and improved to 9-5 on the season. As of this week they hold onto the final Wildcard spot in the AFC, but take on Buffalo and New England in the final two weeks of the year. This team could easily sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2008. Either way, 2016 will be the Dolphins first winning season in nearly 9 years.
- Denver is in deep trouble. They got embarrassed versus New England on Sunday and need to win out to have any chance at making the playoffs. They play at Kansas City and then host Oakland to finish the year. Not easy opponents by any standard. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that neither team we saw in last years Super Bowl even crack the playoffs this year.
- Green Bay won their 4th straight game and are in a perfect spot to sneak into the playoffs by winning the NFC North. Detroit’s loss versus New York on Sunday leaves the door wide open. The Packers take on a Minnesota this weekend while the Lions travel to Dallas before both these teams meet to finish the season. I said it last week and I’ll say it again this week, Green Bay is going to win the NFC North title this season.
- The NFC South is still up for grabs. Atlanta currently sits in first place at 9-5, but Tampa Bay is only one game back at 8-6. These teams don’t play each other again this season, but they do both play games against New Orleans and Carolina. The Panthers and Saints do statically still have a chance at winning the NFC South, but it would take nothing less than a miracle.
- The AFC South will go through Tennessee this season. The Titans had the most impressive victory in week fifteen knocking off the Chiefs 19-17 in Kansas City. They are 8-6 and still sit in second place of the division but Houston is in shambles and barely defeated a terrible Jacksonville team last weekend. Houston plays Cincinnati this weekend while the Titans play the Jaguars before they face each other in the final week of the season. This is going to be a very exciting finish, and I’ve got my money on Tennessee reaching the post-season for the first time in 10 years.
- Oakland is headed to the post-season for the first time in 12 years! After securing a victory versus San Diego 16-13 on Sunday they officially clinched a playoff spot. It is concerning that Derek Carr is nursing a finger injury, but a likely first round bye should give him time to rest. Pre-season I predicted Kahlil Mack as defensive MVP. The mid-season report had Von Miller winning the award but Mack has had a tremendous second half and deserves a serious consideration. This award could get decided by whoever plays better in the final two games of the season, including their week 17 showdown.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-2) VS CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Carolina Panthers (6-8) are set to host division rivals Atlanta (9-5) this weekend at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers have won back-to-back games for only the second time this season, but still have a very very slim chance at making the playoffs this year. For starters they’ll have to defeat Atlanta this weekend, which won’t be easy. Atlanta is 5-2 on the road this season, and have already defeated Carolina once this season. Oddsmakers have listed Atlanta as 2-point road favourites for this game, with a total set of 52-points expected.
The Falcons has been the most unstoppable offense all season long. They are the only team that is averaging over 30-points per game both at home, and one the road this season. Nobody has been able to slow down this high octane attack and I can’t see Carolina being the first. In the first meeting between these teams this year the Falcons put up 48-points – their highest total all season long. Carolina is coming off an impressive defensive performance in Washington against a very good Redskins offense, but the Falcons are in a whole other universe. In the last two weeks Atlanta has scored a combined 83-points… without Julio Jones even in the lineup. Jones has been dealing with a toe injury but returned to practise on Tuesday and is eying a return this weekend. With Julio in the lineup it takes the Falcons passing attack to another level. This team has faced three top ten defensive scoring teams this year (Denver, Seattle, Kansas City) and were still able to average 25-points per game in those three outings. Carolina is nowhere near a top-ten defensive team this year. They are giving up an average of 25-points per game this year (25th) and are allowing more passing yards per game than any other team in the league this season (274.8) On top of this, they will be playing on a short week of rest after playing on Monday Night. Not much points towards the Panthers having any solution to slowing down this attack, and if Atlanta exceeds 30-points their record is exceptional. They are 9-1 this season when reaching the 30-point plateau.
Carolina will have to run up the score in order to beat Atlanta. I’m not convinced their defense is capable of shutting down the Falcons offense, which leaves the ball in Cam Newtons hands to keep this game manageable. After an MVP season Newton is undoubtedly having a down season. His 53.8% completion percentage is lowest in the entire league amongst quarterbacks. He has struggled for majority of this season and most of that blame should be placed on the offensive line. They have not been able to block even the worst pass rushing teams. Entering this weekend they are giving up an average of 2.5 sacks per game, and have allowed Newton to be hit an additional 84 times. Not the worst in the league, but this weakness is another game changing advantage for Atlanta. Outside Linebacker Vic Beasley is having a monstrous sophomore season. Through 14 games Beasley leads the league with 14.5 sacks. He has been terrorizing offensive lines all season long and has been leading a Flacons defense that is much improved in the second half of the season. In the first 8 games of the year Atlanta was allowing opponents to score an average of 28.8 points per game. In their last 6 games they have been holding opponents to 21.1 points per game; a full touchdown less. If the Flacons defense can find a way to influence this game then the offense should do the rest. I’m still scratching my head on why this line is only Atlanta by 2-points, it should continue to rise as we approach kick-off. Either way, Flacons win big.
TRENDS
ATLANTA
- 4-0 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
- 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 road games
- 3-1 against the spread versus Divisional opponents this season
CAROLINA
- 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following an against the spread win
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games versus divisional opponents
- 1-6 against the spread when playing with 6-days of rest or less this season
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 33 – PANTHERS 20
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-5.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Cleveland Browns (0-14) are set to host the San Diego Chargers (5-9) in their last home game of the 2016 season. Cleveland has lost 17 straight games dating back to last season. They are making a bid to be the first team to finish 0-16 since the 2008 Detroit Lions, but they still have two games left to try and get that coveted first win. As for San Diego, they find themselves on the bottom half of the AFC West for a second consecutive season. Oddsmakers have listed the Chargers as 6-point road favourites for this game, with the over/under being placed at 43.5 points.
San Diego will miss the playoffs this season, but they are at the top of the list when discussing the “best worst team” in the league this season. What I mean is the Chargers had an incredibly hard schedule this season, and if only a few game had broke a little differently for them then we could be looking at a 9-5 team. The five victories they have earned this season have come against Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville, Denver and Atlanta. Four out of those five teams are currently bidding for a playoff spot. While the overall record of the opponents that San Diego has played this year combine for a 92-76 record. This team was dished one of the toughest schedules this season, but this week will finally have a chance to exhale as they take on the measly Browns.
As much as San Diego is the “best worst team”. Cleveland is the “worst WORST team” in the league. This team is terrible, and I genuinely feel terrible for anyone that cheers for them. The Browns have done nothing but field a terrible football team for the better part of two decades and have the had endless valuable draft picks to improve upon their mistakes. Yet here they are, without a single win all season long, allowing 29 points per game (31st) and scoring only 15.7 points per game (31st). This is officially the third straight season that Cleveland has fielded at least three different starting quarterbacks, and their fiftieth straight with starting at least two. The last time Cleveland put one quarterback on the field for an entire season was 2001, and it was Tim Couch. That same Tim Couch who finished his professional career with more interceptions than passing touchdowns. Pull those paper bags out, because you’ll need them again this weekend.
To be completely honest, how do oddsmakers figure that Cleveland will keep this a 6-point game? The Browns have played 16 quarters of football since they last even held a lead in a game. Their average scoring margin per game is -13.4, or in other words they lose by nearly two full touchdowns every single game. This team hasn’t been able to stop the worst offensive teams this season, how are they supposed to stop Philip Rivers? Rivers has lead the Chargers to the 4th best 3rd down conversion percentage in the league this season at 44%, and is helping them score an average of 26.1 points per game, 4th most in the league. I don’t know about you, but all my money will be riding on the Chargers to sauté Cleveland for their 15th loss this season.
TRENDS
SAN DIEGO
- 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games following a straight up loss
- 9-2 against the spread off a loss against a divisional rival the last three seasons
- 4-0 against the spread off a divisional game this season
CLEVELAND
- 0-5 against the spread in games versus a team with a losing record
- 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games as a home underdog
- 6-17 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – CHARGERS 26 – BROWNS 13
MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)
The Minnesota Vikings (7-7) and Green Bay Packers (8-6) are set to kick-off at 1PM EST this Saturday. At 7-7 the Vikings are a long shot to make the post-season this year, and a loss this weekend would certainly knock them out of the picture. This is a must win game for Minnesota. As for Green Bay, only four weeks ago this team was 4-6 and the playoffs seemed like a pipe dream. Today they are on a 4-game winning streak and only one game back of Detroit for the NFC North lead. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as heavy 6.5-point home favourites for this game, with a low scoring game expected as the total is set at 43.
Three straight weeks I’ve been on the Packers bandwagon, might as well make it a fourth. Being a Vikings fan, this game has me torn. But everything points towards Green Bay securing their 5th straight win. Minnesota has regressed more than any other team since week five of the regular season. The defense has been the backbone of this team and started out the season incredible. They were forcing multiple turnovers a game, and the offense was capitalizing on those opportunities. Since the 5-game winning streak ended their defensive excellence has continued, but the offense has been horrendous. Consider this; in four of the first five games the Vikings scored at least 22-points. Since then, they have eclipsed the 20-point mark in only three of nine games, and have a 2-7 record. The offensive line has been a major issue the entire season and converting on third downs and red-zone opportunities have been few and far between. Entering this game the offense is 21st in the league converting 37.63% of the time on third downs, and 30th in the red-zone earning a touchdown only 42.86% of the time.
It is hard to ignore what Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense has been accomplishing in the last couple weeks. You have to turn the clock all the way back to week ten for the last time Rodgers threw an interception. He has been playing incredible and in some peoples books has even crept into MVP conversations. This weekend he’ll face a tough Vikings secondary that already shut him down once this season, but things are different this time around. This game is more than just another week two matchup – I could very well decide whether the Packers make or miss the playoffs.
Home field advantage could be all Green Bay needs to win this game. When playing at Lambeau this season the Packers average scoring margin is +6.7 points (11th). As opposing to being on the road where the average margin is -3.1 (18th). Minnesota did defeat the Packers last season as Lambeau field 20-13, but that was a serious outlier. Since 2010 the Packers hold a 5-1-1 record versus Minnesota, and in those five victories they won by an average margin of 19-points. History does repeat itself frequently, and the Packers have a strong history of beating up on Minnesota at Lambeau.
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games versus NFC opponents
GREEN BAY
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 Saturday games
- 12-4-2 against the spread in their last 18 home games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 13-2 against the spread off a divisional game the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 17 – PACKERS 28
DENVER BRONCOS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3)
The Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) and Denver Broncos (8-6) square off this weekend in Arrowhead Stadium. This is the final meeting between these two AFC West rivals and detrimental for the Broncos playoff aspirations. If Denver cannot find a way to win, they can kiss their hopes of a repeat goodbye. As for the Chiefs, it looks like they’re headed back to the post-season for consecutive seasons. At 10-4 Kansa City is currently holding onto a wildcard spot, but could still earn a first round bye if the Raiders lose one of their last two games and they Chiefs can win out. Oddsmakers have listed the Chiefs as 3-point home favourites for this divisional matchup, with a total set of 37.5 points.
Denver has their backs up against the ropes, and I’m faithful that Kansas City is going to deliver the knockout punch this weekend. Entering November the Broncos found themselves at 6-2, and in a great position to duplicate as AFC West divisional champions. But in the last six weeks the world has began to crumble around them. They have lost four of their last six games and a big part is because of their inability to score points. Denver lost C.J Anderson early in the season and since that day the offense has slowly been imploding. Head coach Gary Kubiak predicates his style of offense on a strong running game. Since Anderson went down to injury they have not been able to find a reliable replacement, and it has hurt all other facets of this offense. Trevor Siemien is being asked to do more than what he is capable of, while the big play making receivers have been blanketed due to a Broncos one legged attack. Just consider this; in the first 8 games Denver scored 27-points or more in five games. Yet in their last 6 games they’ve scored 27-points or more only once. Which really isn’t shocking as you analyze the numbers a little deeper. In the last three weeks the Broncos offense is 16.67% on third downs, worst in the league. This team has an exceptional defense but no defense can withstand being on the field for 70% of the game.
With how the Broncos offense has been struggling, you must understand why I’m taking the Chiefs at home this weekend. Kansas City has one of the most complete defensive teams in the league. They have strong playmakers on nearly every layer of the squad and at any moment can turn an opposing teams possession into 6-points for themselves. The week 13 pick-2 that Eric Berry has versus Atlanta to win the game perfectly exemplifies that. Entering this weekend this defense has 28 turnovers on the season, and is averaging a league best +1.4 in turnover margin when playing at home this year.
When you go to put cash on Denver this weekend just remember these things;
- Kansas City has had zero travel in three weeks, they are playing their third straight game at home
- Kansas City has not lost back-to-back games all year
- When scoring 20 or more points this season the Chiefs are 9-0
TRENDS
DENVER
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games versus AFC opponents
KANSAS CITY
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up loss
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games at home versus a team with a winning road record