Week eleven was a tremendous success. My picks finished a combined 3-0-1 for the weekend, and my record now sits at 23-18-1 on the year. The Cowboys, Steelers and Raiders were all able to cover as I expected, while the Patriots pushed in San Francisco winning by exactly 13-points after allowing a late game touchdown. With only five weeks remaining in the regular season it is full steam ahead. But before I get into the games I’m favouring in week twelve, lets take a look at some important headlines from week eleven, and where we go from here.
- Week Eleven became the weekend of the favourites. 10 of 14 teams that entered as favourites on the weekend covered their perspective spreads. The four teams that failed to cover included the Bengals, Chiefs, Giants and Panthers. It was a tremendous weekend for those of you who decided to ride the favourites.
- Pittsburgh sent the Browns to 0-12 and Cleveland is officially one step closer to finishing without a single win in 2016. Things are really bad in Cleveland, and they aren’t going to get any better as Cody Kessler suffered a concussion on Sunday. This team closes out the season playing the Giants, Bengals, Bills, Chargers and the Steelers again. It is really hard to see winning even one of these games.
- So much for Baltimore slowing down the Cowboys offense. Dak Prescott had one of his best performances all year throwing for 3 touchdown passes and has earned Dallas their first 9-game win streak in franchise history. It’s beginning to look more and more likely that the road to SuperBowl 51 will travel through Dallas this year.
- Matthew Stafford led the Lions to yet another 4th quarter comeback as they handed the Jaguars their 10th loss this season. At 6-4 the Lions are in first place of the NFC North and play Minnesota this Thursday in the most important game all season for both of these teams.
- Buffalo held the Cincinnati out of the end-zone for the entire game on Sunday. They secured an ugly 14-12 win, but a win is a win. At 5-5 the Bills are still in the thick of it. But they’ll need to win at least 5 of their last 6 games to have any chance at ending their 14 year post-season drought.
- Biggest upset of the weekend goes to Tampa Bay de-throning the Kansas City Chiefs. The Buccaneers weathered a late comeback by the Chiefs and held on for the 19-17 win. This is the first time since week five of last season that Kansas City has lost at home. I can officially say nobody pegged Tampa Bay as the team to end that streak.
- Touching base on the NFC South. This is the closest division in all of football. Atlanta is 6-4, Tampa 5-5, Carolina 4-5, and New Orleans 4-5. It is still wide open for anyone to take, and should be one of the best storylines to follow as we head down the final stretch.
- Minnesota ended their 4-game losing streak and sent Arizona packing at 4-6-1. With such high expectations entering the year, describing the Cardinals season as disappointing at this point would be an understatement. They are now three full games back of Seattle for first place in the NFC West, and must win every single game for the reminder of the season if they hope to make their third straight post-season.
- Another epic collapse for the Los Angeles Rams. After holding a 10-0 lead over Miami for nearly three quarters of football they game up two forth quarter touchdowns, including the game winner with less than a minute remaining. But really, we can’t take anything away from what Miami has done. After starting 1-4 they’ve tied together five straight victories and have a slim shot at making a wild-card spot this year.
- Washington handed Green Bay their 4th straight loss. The worst losing streak for the Packers in three years. The Packers are now 4-6 and sit 2 games back of the NFC North lead. Missing out the the post-season this year is becoming a reality for many cheese heads right about now.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+7.5) VS DALLAS COWBOYS
The Dallas Cowboys (9-1) look to extend their NFC East divisional lead when they welcome the Washington Redskins (6-3-1) into AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving. Dallas finds themselves with the best record in the NFL, and atop several analysts power rankings as we enter week twelve. They’re riding a nine-game winning streak and look to make it ten against the team in which their current streak began, Washington. These two rivals met in week two in Washington and the Cowboys scored the final touchdown of the game to earn a 27-23 come-back victory. Washington will be looking to exact their revenge this weekend in Dallas, and earn their third straight victory. Oddsmakers have listed the Cowboys as 7.5-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 51 points expected.
I’ve been riding the Cowboys all season long, but this weekend I’m jumping off that bandwagon. Washington has won six of their last eight games, and have been within striking distance of nearly every loss this year. In three losses this season two have been decided by 4-points or fewer, and their week eight game against Cincinnati ended in a 17-17 tie. As far as I’m concerned, this divisional game to end within 7-points is as close to a guarantee as you’ll find this week. In three divisional games this season Washington is 2-1, and every single game has been decided by 7-points or fewer. As for the Cowboys, they’ve also played three divisional games; are 2-1 in those games, and each game was decided by 6-points or fewer. Combing these two teams for six divisional games all decided by 7-points or fewer this year. The NFC East is a battle this year, and this game has huge implications as we head down the stretch, I’m expecting another close finish.
Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot have NFL analysts everywhere a buzz; where is the love for Washington? They might not have the same flash, but this team has quietly become one of the best offensive teams in the league this season. The reason behind their success, Kirk Cousins. Cousins signed a 1-year 19.9 million dollar contract in the off-season, and after starting 0-2 fans in DC had already began demanding a change at quarterback. All I can say is Cousins answered. Since week three he has lead Washington to a 6-1-1 record, and statically is one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season. He enters Dallas averaging over 8 yards per passing completion, (5th) has the third best completion percentage on the road, (69.19%) and is one of three quarterbacks with over 3000 yards passing already this year. The other two? Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Thats some pretty good company to be in if you ask me.
For Dallas to win their 10th straight, they’ll have to do everything possible to shut down Cousins and the Redskins offense. I’m just not convinced they’ve got what it takes to accomplish such a feat. Something that makes Washington so lethal is they’ve got an endless arsenal of offensive talent. DeSean Jackson is one of the premier deep threats in the league, Pierre Garcon is coming off a 6 catches for 116-yards against Green Bay, Jamison Crowder has three 100-yard receiving performances in his last four games; while Jordan Reed is consistently mentioned as one of the best tight ends in the league. All this talent and I haven’t even touched on Robert Kelly in the back field yet. Across the board Washington might have the most complete offense in the league. Even their offensive line has been impressive this year. Entering week twelve they’ve allowed Kirk Cousins to get sacked only 14-times all season, 4th fewest. When you consider all of this, its no surprise Washington is 2nd in the league averaging 418 total yards of offense per game.
Entering week twelve the Cowboys are allowing the 5th fewest points per game at 18.7. But outside of points per game, their defensive numbers argue Washington keeps this game close. Dallas is currently 31st in the league allowing opposing quarterbacks an average completion percentage of 69.23% per game. With Cousins having one of the best completion percentages in the league, this could be something to follow. While in the last three weeks the Cowboys are 30th in red-zone defense, allowing teams to score 77.78% of the time. Everything points towards Washington scoring some points in this divisional matchup. Look for another close game in a critical game with will surely decide the fate of the NFC East down the stretch.
TRENDS
WASHINGTON
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points
- 4-0 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games as a road underdog
DALLAS
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 Thursday games
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning record
- 12-29 against the spread in their last 42 games as a home favourite
FINAL SCORE – REDSKINS 26 – COWBOYS 30
NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Cleveland Browns (0-11) and New York Giants (7-3) are set to kick-off this weekend in First Energy Stadium. The Browns stink, we’ve all heard the story, it’s been on repeat all season long. Without a win this weekend they’ll fall to 0-12, and be that much closer to becoming the first team since the 2008 Lions to go 0-16. As for New York, they’ve been red hot. The G-men enter Cleveland on a 5 game winning streak, and desperately need to keep the train rolling to stay in contention of the NFC East. Oddsmakers have listed the Giants as 6.5-point road favourites, with a total set of 44-pointed.
0-12. Write it down. Not a chance Cleveland wins this game. Honestly, I think it’s a bit of a slap in the face to the New York Giants that oddsmakers have listed them as only 7-point favorutes in this game. If I had to set this line it would have been somewhere around Giants 9.5-10 points favourites. I could go on and on about how bad Cleveland is, and how the Giants are going to pummel them, but I’ll limit myself to three key indicators;
- New York’s defense has drastically improved as the season has progressed
- Cleveland’s offense would struggle to score against college football teams
- Eli Manning finally has an offensive line, and it is paying dividends
The NY Giants began the year 2-0, then allowed three straight opponents to score over 23-points and fell to 2-3. Since that point this team is 5-0, and defensively have stepped up to the plate. They haven’t allowed a singled team to score over 23-points in a single game. This defense is slowly coming together and several other numbers point towards them shutting down the Browns. Entering week twelve the Giants are the 4th best red-zone defense, limiting teams to a field goal 54.55% of the time. They are 4th in average passer rating, holding opposing quarterbacks to an average rating of 76.1 per game. While 23.68%; the average third down conversion percentage of their opponents the last three weeks, has been lowest in the entire league. Several of these areas the Browns already seriously struggle in. If you ask me that’s one docket towards the Giants controlling this game.
Cleveland is getting worse as the season progresses. Yes, their record is getting worse. But I mean their offense is actually getting progressively worse. In the last three weeks the Browns have failed to eclipse 10-points in a single game, and have scored 26-points combined. Last weekend the Steelers defense that has struggled to pressure the quarterback all season long managed to sack Cody Kessler so many times he had to leave the game due to concussion protocol. With Kessler likely to miss this week Josh McCown will be at the helm, which is great news for Giants fans. McCown has a completion percentage of 53.8%, an average quarterback rating of 37.4, and 6 interceptions in four appearances this season. With how the Giants defense has been playing lately, Cleveland fans would be lucky if the Browns reach double-digits in this weekend.
Manning has weapons all around him in this offense, and the protection his offense line has given is better than he has ever experienced. In ten games this year Eli has been sacked only 13 times, 2nd fewest in the league behind only Derek Carr. With improved protection Eli should have no problem shredding this terrible Browns defense. Entering week twelve Cleveland is 31st in the league giving up 29.5 points per game, and 29th allowing teams in the red-zone to score 65% of the time. When you compare those numbers with the fact the Giants are a perfect 100% inside the red-zone the last three weeks, putting up points should be a breeze this weekend.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home favourite
- 7-2 against the spread in non-conference games the last three seasons
CLEVELAND
- 0-8 against the spread in their last 8 games as a home underdog
- 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 games following a straight up loss by 14-points or more
- 2-10 against the spread in November the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – GIANTS 27 – BROWNS 13
CAROLINA PANTHERS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS (-3)
The Oakland Raiders (8-2) return home from Mexico this week to take on the Carolina Panthers (4-6) in the Coliseum. After a slow start the Panthers have won three of their last four games, but play only their second road game in five weeks this weekend. As for Oakland, they return from south of the border and secured their 4th straight victory with a little help from the referees on Monday Night. This marks only the 6th meeting between these two teams in NFL history. Carolina has won the last two by the exact same score of 17-6 in both 2008 and 2012. Oddsmakers have listed the Raiders has 3-point home favourites for this home game, with a total set of 49-points.
Carolina has been doing everything possible to climb back into contention this season. Unfortunately for them, Luke Kuechly suffered a concussion last weekend against New Orleans. Kuechly is not only the Panthers best defensive player, but the heart and soul of this team. Without him in the lineup this weekend, I don’t see a scenario where they cover this spread. Consider this; Carolina’s secondary has been lit up worse than a christmas tree this season, and Oakland has the offense to put up a number. In ten games this year the Panthers secondary is giving up an average completion percentage of 67.11 to opposing quarterbacks, (29th) and nearly 272 passing yards per game (27th). When you compare those numbers to that of Derek Carr this season, it outlines a serious mismatch. Carr is completing over 66% of his throws this season, (6th) and has Oakland averaging 275 passing yards per game (4th). We’ve all seen the weapons that Carr has in this passing game, and the protection that the offense line is giving him. Exposing a week Panthers defense should be simple.
This is only the 5th road game that Carolina has played this year, for a combined 1-4 record. In their last game away from home they defeated Los Angeles 13-10, but in the prior two they allowed Atlanta and New Orleans to score a combined 89 points. With Oakland entering this game averaging 27.5 points per game this season, (5th) and outscoring opponents by a average of 10-points per game across their 4-game winning streak, capturing victory by at least a field goal this weekend should be a breeze.
The Panthers offensive line has had issues protecting Cam Newton this season. Newton has been front and centre for much of the year with the hard hits he has been taking. While concussion protocol has almost been a weekly discussion surrounding Newton. Entering this game the Panthers have allowed Newton to get sacked 24 times, (10th most) and hit 63 times (10th most). With Kahlil Mack coming into this game recording at least one sack in his last five games, Newton will surely feel the pressure again this weekend. Its a little too late for Carolina, they’ll be waking up 4-7 on Monday morning.
TRENDS
CAROLINA
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record
- 0-4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win
- 0-3 against the spread versus AFC West opponents the last three seasons
OAKLAND
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games
- 6-1 against the spread where the line is +3 to -3 this season
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games after allowing 350+ total yards in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – PANTHERS 17 – RAIDERS 33
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5)
The Green Bay Packers (4-6) aim to end their longest losing streak in six years when they travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles (5-5) on Monday Night. The last time these two teams met was 2014 at Lambeau Field where Green Bay secured 53-20 win. This time around the Packers would be happy to get a win, never mind score 50 points. Oddsmakers have listed the Eagles as 3-point home favourites, with a total set of 47.5-points expected.
Green Bay is spiralling, and this weekend they enter one of the toughest stadiums in the league to win in. The Eagles have been hit or miss for much of the year, but one thing that is consistent this season is their home field advantage. In four home games this season the Eagles are a combined 4-0. This team plays at another level when in Philadelphia, and you need to look no further than their offensive and defensive numbers to understand. This Eagles offense is averaging 27 points per game at home, five points more than the 22 per game they’re averaging on the road. But their defensive play is the biggest difference. On the road this year the Eagles defense is giving up nearly 25 points, 17th most in the league. But when playing at home they’re holding teams to fewer than 10-points per game, 9.5 to be exact. That total is the fewest allowed in the entire league at home this season. This defense is a completely different unit when playing at home, and I expect they should have no problem feasting on a slumping Packers team this weekend.
Being brutally honest; Aaron Rodgers has been absolutely terrible this year, and their offensive line has been garbage. Rodgers currently has one of the worst completion percentages in the entire league. While the offensive line has been absolutely terrible in run blocking and pass protection. The problems run deep for Green Bay and reports have surfaced that Rodgers leadership is beginning to be questioned. Forget about the Aaron Rodgers we’ve all come to love and envy. That guy has apparently vanished. There is serious problems on the field and in the clubhouse for Green Bay. When you consider the off-field distractions and the fact Philadelphia fields arguably the best front four in the NFL, it could be another ugly outcome. I’m a believer we will see the Packers lose their 5th straight game this weekend.
While the Packers offense hasn’t been all bread and butter this year, the defense is where the serious issues lie. In the last four weeks Green Bay has given up 19 total touchdowns, and an average of 38 points per game. If you ask me, that is incredible in the most horrific way. The NY Giants, Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings have all allowed fewer touchdowns this ENTIRE SEASON than the Packers have allowed in the last four weeks. You might as well put the egg right on Mike McCarthy’s face, because it is impossible for anyone to win when your defense is this terrible. Carson Wentz might be a rookie, but the way this secondary looked, Ryan Fitzpatrick could dice them up. In the last three weeks they are giving up an average of 14.5 yards per completion. Everything points towards another strong home performance for the Eagles, and a layup victory for us bettors riding the 3.5-points.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games in week 12
- 0-6 against the spread after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game
- 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss by 14-points or more
PHILADELHPIA
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 Monday night games
- 4-0 against the spread in home games this season
- 33-24 against the spread versus NFC North opponents since 1992