I nailed my week ten predictions. I finished a 3-1 combined, bringing me up to 19-15-1 on the season. Dallas, New Orleans and Buffalo all covered as I expected, while my sole losing prediction was Kansas City winning by more than 6 at home. The Chiefs allowed Jacksonville to score a late 4th quarter touchdown to back-door cover. As we enter week ten conference standings are beginning to take shape, and divisions are quickly becoming decided. Here’s a little recap of some things I took away from week ten, and where I see things going from here on out.
- Minnesota suffered their third straight loss on Sunday. Detroit drove down the field with time expiring and nailed a 58-yard field goal to put the game into overtime. Then Matthew Stafford threw a 28-yard game winning touchdown to Golden Tate. The Vikings offensive line is a mess and after starting the 5-0 the Vikings are in hot water. Green Bay is 4-4, Detroit is 5-4, and Chicago is 2-6 in the NFC North. This division is still anyones for the taking, but I give a slight advantage to the Lions with how they have been playing in the last couple weeks.
- The Giants have quietly strung a three game winning streak together. They knocked off Philadelphia on Sunday 28-23 and picked off rookie Carson Wentz two times. After starting 3-0 the Eagles were making a strong case as the best team in the NFC East. They have now lost four of their last five and the Dallas Cowboys are the clear cut favourite riding a seven game win streak.
- Miami has been quite surprising in the last three weeks. They’ve won three straight games including this past weekend and sent the New York Jets to 3-6. In all reality I think the Jets should have won this game, but they allowed a late punt-return touchdown to seal the game. Ryan Fitzpatrick had another mediocre performance throwing two interceptions, and while he might not be the solution at quarterback for New York, it sounds like they’ll ride him out for the remainder of the season – so long as injuries don’t keep him on the sideline.
- Dallas absolutely crushed Cleveland, just as I expected. They jumped out to a 21-10 half-time lead and held the Browns scoreless in the 2nd half of the game winning 35-10. What would you think if I told you the last game Cleveland won Johnny Manziel was their quarterback? Cue the Tim Tebow chants in Cleveland..
- The 49ers are exactly who I expected, an extremely terrible defensive team. New Orleans scored 31 points against them before half-time and finished with an 18-point victory. On a related issue, how does Chip Kelly still have a job?
- Cam Newton led the Panthers to their second consecutive victory on Sunday, but once again got smacked around. He took a hit in the 2nd quarter that Ron “Riverboat” Riveria has already said is being analyzed by the league. But why does this even matter, neither Carolina or Los Angeles will be playoff teams this year.
- Green Bay is in a world of hurt, and Aaron Rodgers can officially no longer tell people to R-E-L-A-X. The Packers gave up a kick-return touchdown on the first play of the game to Indianapolis on Sunday, and the Colts never looked back. They held the lead for the remainder of the game, and as much of a triumphant win this is for the Colts, I’m attributing this win to the poor play of Aaron Rodgers and coaching by Mike McCarthy. Green Bay fans cannot be happy, and several people are already speculating that McCarthy is ruining the best years of Aaron Rodgers career.
- San Diego is on a roll. After knocking off Tennessee on Sunday they improved to 4-5 and have won three of their last four games. The only downside for the Chargers is they find themselves inside the best division in the entire league. The AFC West is a combined 23-11 this year. The Raiders are an impressive 7-2, Denver is 6-3, and Kansas City is 6-3. San Diego has their work cut out to try and make the playoffs, but I believe that it is completely attainable.
- It’s about time the NFL considered hiring referees full-time, because the Monday Night game between Seattle and Buffalo was a joke. They botched a late first-half roughing the kicker penalty that led to Buffalo missing a field-goal, they then entered half-time down 11-points, instead of 8. I had a feeling that missed call would come back to bite them, and it did just that in the 4th quarter. Buffalo was down 6-points inside Seattle’s red-zone and had to score a touchdown to win the game. If the ref’s had called the play at the end of the first half correctly then Dan Carpenter would have simply had nail a chip-shot field game to send the game into overtime. Oh, but wait, there is more. They missed a blatant pass interference call on Richard Sherman in the final seconds of the game that should have given Buffalo the ball on Seattle’s one yard line with a first-and-goal to win the game. By now you must be able to tell I’m pissed about this game, but nobody can be more upset with this outcome than Rex Ryan. His head is probably going to explode.
ATLANTA FALCONS (+1) VS PHILDELPHIA EAGLES
The Atlanta Falcons (6-3) travel to Pennsylvania this weekend to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) at Lincoln Financial Field. After losing back-to-back games the Eagles can take a deep breath as they return home, they’re 3-0 at Lincoln Financial this season. As for Atlanta, they’ve earned back-to-back victories and aim to win their fourth straight versus the Eagles dating back to 35-31 victory in 2011. Oddsmakers have listed the Eagles as 1-point home favourites for this conference matchup, with a total set of 50-point expected.
It’s the battle of the birds. In the wilderness an Eagle would almost surely kill a Falcon. But this isn’t the wilderness I’m discussing, its football logos, and I believe Atlanta clearly has the upper hand this weekend. The Falcons enter week ten on fire and very well rested. They last played on Thursday night football in Tampa Bay, and put up a number scoring 43-points – the highest total of any team during week nine. Atlanta is easily the most frightening offensive team in the league. In six of the nine games this year they’ve scored 30 or more points, and have been held under 24-points only one once all year. This is a red-flag for Eagles fans. Philadelphia has defeated some quality football teams this year, but they enter week ten a combined 0-4 in football games when they allow teams to score 20 or more points this season. If Atlanta eclipses the 20-point mark this week then you can toss another Falcons victory in the bag.
In Carson Wentz’s first four games as the Eagles starting quarterback he had five touchdowns and only one interception. The kid has a healthy future as the Eagles quarterback, but his inexperience has come to fruition. In his last four starts he has combined for only two touchdowns, and four interceptions. While you could argue that Atlanta does not have the best defensive team in the league, they’ve got healthy numbers versus the run and a solid pass rush to go with it. Entering this weekend the Falcons are 7th in the league holding teams to an average of 91.6 rushing yards per game, and linebacker Vic Beasley Jr. is making a case as one of the best pass rushers in the league. Beasley has 7.5 sacks already this season (4th most) and three forced fumbles through nine games. Philadelphia is undeniably a team that relies on running the ball to find rhythm, and Atlanta could toss a wrench in that plan this weekend. Either way you slice the pie, Philadelphia has had offensive line issues this season. They’re giving up an average of 3 sacks per game this year, 5th most in the league. I’m expecting they will be tested once again this weekend.
Philadelphia doesn’t have a defense that is capable of shutting down the Falcons offense, its that simple. Julio Jones is quickly making a case as the best receiver in the entire league, and has proven that with five 100-yard performances already this season. But it doesn’t end there, Mohammad Sanu has fit in perfectly since coming over from Cincinnati, while Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are one of the best one-two punch running back duo’s in the league. The Eagles do have a fantastic front four, but I’m not expecting them to find much success against the Falcons this weekend. Matt Ryan has one of the quickest release times in the entire league from snap to pass, and is leading the league with a 9.1-yards per completion this season. Three or four weeks into the regular season it is hard to tell if an offensive team is actually as good as the numbers say. But through nine weeks Atlanta has done nothing but put up ridiculous offensive numbers. They enter week ten as the highest scoring team in the league averaging 33.9 points per game. It looks to me like the Eagles secondary will be heavily outmatched this weekend.
TRENDS
ATLANTA
- 4-0 against the spread after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 road games
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 5-0 against the spread as an underdog this season
PHILADELHPIA
- 2-4 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
- 10-21-1 against the spread in their last 32 games versus an opponent with a winning record
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 29 – EAGLES 24
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2) VS TENNESSEE TITANS
The Tennessee Titans (4-5) return home this weekend to take on the Green Bay Packers (4-4). The Titans have been very hot and cold this season, but they’ve won back-to-back home games as they return to Nissan Stadium this weekend. As for Green Bay, they have lost back-to-back games, however can take solstice in the fact the last time they lost against Tennessee was in 2008. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as a 2-point road favourite for this non-conference matchup, with a total set of 49 points.
You heard it here first, Green Bay is going to score 35 or more points this weekend, thats a guarantee. Why do I say that? Look no further than the Titans last four games. Tennessee has played Cleveland, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and San Diego since week six. They’ve come out of those four games with a 2-2 record, but have allowed a combined 125 points cross that span, or 31 per game. That is an awful lot of points to allow against four opponents that combine for a 10-25 record this season. While the Packers have seriously under performed themselves this season, this is a must-win game if they have post-season dreams this year. I’m looking for Aaron Rodgers to be the MVP quarterback we’ve all seen in the past and lead the Packers into the end-zone early and often in Nashville this weekend.
This game will easily be decided upon the Titans ability to stay committed and efficient when running the ball. Entering this weekend Tennessee has been one of the best teams in the league rushing the ball. They’re averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, (5th) and 144.5 total yards per game (3rd) on the ground. The addition of Demarco Murray in the off-season has vastly helped the Titans run the rock, and statistics show they clearly love handing the ball off to him. In nine games Murray has 174 attempts, 3rd most in the league behind only Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliot. He has been effective in nearly every game this season, but Green Bay has a defensive front to shut down the run game. The Packers are currently 2nd in the league holding opponents to 3.3 yards per rushing attempt and 1st limiting opponents to a combined average of 75.8 rushing yards per game. This tells me that this game will decided on the offensive line of Tennessee, and defensive line of Green Bay. Whomever wins the battle in the trenches will win this game, and I can’t help but give the edge to Green Bay. They are currently tied for 8th in the league with 21 sacks this season and just welcomed back one of their best defensive players in Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. Dix is easily the most talented player on this Packers defense and they have been without him for much of the season. Last weekend against Indianapolis was his first game back, and he recorded a sack and two interceptions. He immediately improves the Packers defense and gives them a playmaker they’ve been missing for much of the year.
It has been a rocky road for the Packers this season, but Tennessee is the perfect opponent for Aaron Rodgers to get his confidence back. In the last three weeks the Titans have allowed an average of 310 passing yards per game (4th most) and an average passer rating of 110.7 to opposing quarterbacks (29th). They’ve struggled containing the pass, and Green Bay has a mirage of wide receivers that can score from anywhere on the field. Consider Jordy Nelson, he finally seems to be reaching his stride. In his last two games Nelson has 11 catches, 188 yards, and two touchdowns. He is the best deep threat Green Bay has and should see plenty of balls thrown his way on Sunday. Tennessee currently ranks 29th in league giving up 34 passing plays of 20 yards or longer, and 6 plays of 40 or more yards already this season. Historically this is a game that the Packers win, and with the line sitting at less than field goal, I love it. If they lose this game then serious change will be happening in Green Bay; and I think we’ll be seeing either Detroit or Minnesota take the NFC North title this season.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games following an against the spread loss
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing home record
- 35-16 against the spread after allowing over 350 total yards in their previous game
- 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games as a road favourite
TENNESSEEE
- 7-20-2 against the spread in their last 29 games following a straight up loss
- 15-34-2 against the spread in their last 52 home games
- 1-7-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 1-6 against the spread in weeks 10-13 the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – PACKERS 36 – TITANS 26
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3.5) VS CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Carolina Panthers (3-5) return home this weekend to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) in Bank of America Stadium. After starting the season 1-5 Carolina has begun to clean themselves up, they’ve tied back-to-back wins together for the first time all year. As for Kansas City, they’ll be aiming for their fifth straight victory and third in a row away from home. This marks the first meeting between these two teams since 2008 where the Panthers dismantled the Chiefs 34-0 in Bank of America Stadium. Oddsmakers have listed the Panthers as 3.5-point home favourites for this matchup, with the total set at over/under 44-points.
Carolina wins two football games and the betting world drastically overreacts. Thats what this betting line tells me. How are the 3-5 Panthers 3.5-point home favourites against a Kansas City team that is 16-2 in their last 18 regular season games. It just doesn’t make sense. Carolina still has the same glaring weaknesses in the secondary we’ve seen all season, their offensive line is a mess, and Cam Newton can barely see straight after all the big hits he’s taken this season. Entering week ten the Panthers defense is 24th in league allowing a 65.44% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks, and sit 29th allowing over 286 passing yards per game. They have struggled to slow down some of the worst offensive teams than Kansas City this year. While we can’t ignore the fact that the Chiefs welcome back Alex Smith this weekend after the concussion he suffered in week 8. I’m expecting for the Chiefs to look rejuvenated in this game and easily cover the 3.5-points we’ve generously been given.
Biggest mismatch of this game is Kansas City’s defense versus the Panthers offense. One statistic in particular stands out to me, turnover potential. Kansas City enters week ten the best team in the league at forcing turnovers. They have forced 20 already this season, three more than the next best team in the league. As for Carolina, offensively they’ve turned the ball over 17 times this season, 3rd most in the entire league. It doesn’t get much more black and white than this. Kansas City has a glaring advantage this weekend. Don’t be surprising when you see a Chiefs defender meander into the end-zone with the football this weekend.
TRENDS
KANSAS CITY
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread loss
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record
- 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 road games
- 6-2 against the spread in weeks 10 through 13 the last three seasons
CAROLINA
- 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up win
- 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as a favourite
- 0-2 against the spread in their last three seasons against AFC West opponents
- 2-5 against the spread after allowing 15 points or less in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 20 – PANTHERS 16
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7)
The New England Patriots (7-1) welcome the Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1) into Foxborough Stadium this weekend for a rematch of SuperBowl 49. New England should be well rested as they last played in week eight against the Buffalo Bills. While the Seattle Seahawks find themselves travelling east on short rest after playing on Monday night against those very same Buffalo Bills. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as 7-point home favourites, with a total set of 49-points for this game.
Give me New England and the 7-points oddsmakers are laying for this matchup. The Patriots are a far superior team and have had over two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Bill Belichick always seems to have something up his sleeve, and weekend will be no different. Everyone is still hot and bothered over the Seahawks defense, but to be honest they’ve been far from fantastic this season. Did any of you watch the Monday night game versus Buffalo? Their defense got lit up, and that was against a far inferior offense. I can’t wait to see what a juggernaut like New England does to them. Since Tom Brady returned from suspension he had lead the Patriots to a 4-0 record, and has the offense scoring an average of 34-points per game, 2nd best in the league across this span. Not a single opponent has had a solution to slow down the Patriots offense. They’ve got depth at nearly every position and it is physically impossible for Richard Sherman to cover Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Marcellus Bennet at all once. To put the cream on this cake, we can look at the fact that Seattle is still banged up defensively. Michael Bennet and Kam Chancellor both still nursing injures, and the Patriots are the first team they’ve played on the road all season with a winning record.
I’d just like to say I’m not finished ripping into the Legion of Boom. Now that we’ve touched upon how they’re banged up, and will be playing on a short week of rest, how about we consider the fact they’ve struggled tremendously in the last couple weeks to just get off the field. They have allowed opposing teams to convert 58.49% of the time on third downs in the last three weeks. Thats the worst percentage out of every team in the league in the last three weeks. But you can’t really blame them, their defense has been playing an astronomical amount of snaps in the last couple games. They’re allowing teams to hold possession of the ball an average of 39 minutes per game the last three weeks, ranking them dead last in the league. If I was a Seahawks fan I would be terrified of New England this weekend. Since week seven the Patriots offense is 2nd in the league converting 57.14% of the time on third down, and since Tom Brady has returned the Patriots have been winning games by an average of 16-points. If you ask me, Seattle is in deep water this weekend.
If we reverse the fortune, things don’t look any better for the Seahawks offense. Their offensive line is banged up still. Russell Wilson is still clearly dealing with an injury as he rushed for a meagre 10 yards on three attempts on Monday, and the only bright spot in tight end Jimmy Graham could be shut down this weekend. In eight games the Patriots have allowed only one touchdown to a tight end. They’ve completly shut-down opposing teams, and their defense numbers speak for themselves. They are currently giving up the 2nd fewest points per game at 16.5 per game, and have allowed teams to convert only 34.15% of the time on third down in the last three weeks, 8th best in the league. Whichever way you slice this, the Patriots are the far better team. Plus, how can you ignore the fact they have outscored opponents 72-26 coming off their bye week since 2014. I’ll be placing a hefty chunk on them to cover this spread, it’d be wise for you all to do the same.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 3-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record
- 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games following a straight up win
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games after allowing 350 total yards or more in their previous game
NEW ENGLAND
- 5-1 against the spread as a favourite between 3.5-9.5 points this season
- 8-1-1 against the spread in their last 10 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- 21-8-1 against the spread in their last 31 home games