Back to the grind we go. Week eight saw my predictions go a combined 2-2, bringing me up to 16-15-1 on the year. I nailed two of three early games with Kansas City covering in Indianapolis, and Oakland knocking off Tampa Bay. While my two losing predictions included the Cardinals who failed to cover in Carolina, and San Diego who lost in Denver, both games that could have been winners if officiating and play calling was better. To understand what I mean by that, lets take a look at some important headlines from this past weekend, and where we go from here as we’ve officially reached the mid-way point of the regular season.
- About that Cardinals/Panthers game. This matchup was all Carolina from the get-go. But some poor officiating seriously squashed the comeback Arizona had in the works. Late in the 4th quarter Arizona forced a fumble and down 10 points with less than 4-minutes left in Carolina territory had a chance to cover the the 3.5-point spread. A few plays later the referees called a Carson Palmer pass a fumble when it was clearly a forward pass. That completely squashed the Cardinals comeback and all momentum they had gained after scoring 14 unanswered points. At 3-4-1 the Cardinals are in rough shape, but the NFC West is still anyones for the taking.
- Another Tie? Washington and Cincinnati went final 27-27 in London after another missed field goal in overtime. We’ve now seen tie games in back-to-back weeks. An interesting statistic I read online this past week; the odds of back-to-back weekends that two games end in a tie, 76,000/1.
- Derek Carr is officially the frontrunner in the MVP race. He has led the Raiders to a 6-2 record on the year, and orchestrated a thrilling overtime win on Sunday in Tampa Bay. This game was very close, but only because Oakland allowed it to be. They set the record with 23 penalties accepted, and actually had 24 as the Buccaneers declined it one penalty. This is embarrassing for Tampa Bay, Oakland gave up 200 total yards to penalties, YES 200, and Tampa Bay still couldn’t win.
- New Orleans knocked off Seattle 25-20. Tim Hightower ran for 100 yards against the Legion of Boom, becoming the first time Seattle has allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. But the real storyline of this game is the Seahawks offense. They look like a mess, Russell Wilson is clearly dealing with injury and their offensive line couldn’t protect a rising ballon if given a chance. Seattle is in trouble if you ask me.
- Patriots continue to win. I really don’t have to get into how they dismantled Buffalo on Sunday. What else do you expect, New England is head-and-shoulders above all other teams in the league right now and Tom Brady is on record pace for a 39-year old quarterback this season.
- Denver knocked off San Diego, but I can’t help but think Mike McCoy lost another game with yet again poor play selection. San Diego was down 8-points late in the 4th quarter with a 1st and goal opportunity on the Denver 2-yard line, and threw the ball four times. FOUR TIMES! All after Melvin Gordon picked up 20 yards on two carries in that same drive. That poor play calling cost me about 200 in earnings and a 3-1 record last weekend. Disgusting if you ask me.
- Atlanta and Green Bay combined a shootout 33-32. Matty Ice drove the Falcons down the field and scored the go ahead touchdown with less than 30-seconds left in the game to take the lead. Aaron Rodgers tossed 4 touchdowns, while Matt Ryan tossed 3, and both combined for 0 interceptions.
- Dak attack. Dak Prescott lead the Cowboys to their 6th straight victory on Sunday Night and tossed the game winning touchdown in overtime to Jason Witten. This was a fantastic football game to watch, and its about time people started discussing the Cowboys as the best team in the NFC. The ceiling is high right now for Dallas fans.
- It hurts to be a Vikings fan this week. Minnesota lost to Chicago on Monday night and couldn’t do anything on offense. Their offensive line is a mixture of black sheep that clearly aren’t getting it done in protection, and the defensive injuries are hurting this team. After starting 5-0 it looked like Minnesota was going to run away with the NFC North. But with Green Bay 4-3 and Minnesota now 5-2, anything can happen in the second half of the year.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Dallas Cowboys (6-1) go for their league best seventh straight victory when they travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns (0-8) this weekend. Cleveland is still going for their first win of the season, and look to earn their first win at home against the Cowboys since 1988. As for the Cowboys, they have a stranglehold of the NFC East and aim to win their fourth straight matchup versus the Browns. Oddsmakers have listed Dallas as 6.5-point road favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 48.5 points expected.
How is Dallas only a touchdown favourite in this game? The spread could be Dallas by two touchdowns and I’d still take it. Cleveland continues to break all kinds of records you don’t want to break, and could actually become the first team without a single win in a season since the Detroit Lions. The Browns have had opportunities to win this season, but this weekend won’t be one of those. Dallas is playing fantastic on both sides of the football, and they have a serious advantage on the offensive side of the ball this weekend. At this point anyone who watches football knows that Dallas has the best offensive line in the league, and they will have their way this weekend in Cleveland. The Browns enter this weekend 29th in the league giving up 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, 31st allowing an average of 143.8 rushing yards per game, and have allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or longer this season. How they are going to deal with Ezekiel Elliot this weekend is beyond me. Elliot is the clear cut front runner for offensive rookie of the year at the halfway point of the season, and is one yard shy of 800 yards rushing already this year.
With the Cowboys entering this game 1st in the league averaging 164.9 rushing yards per game this season, the Browns are in serious trouble. This is just about the biggest mismatch you can find entering week nine. Dallas is going to reek havoc on the Browns defensive line this weekend, which will open the playbook up for Dak Prescott to call play action and find a healthy Dez Bryant downfield. This game is about as close to a guarantee you can find all weekend for one simple reason, Cleveland has allowed five of their last six opponents score 30 or more points. If Dallas can reach that mark this weekend all their defense has to do is hold Cleveland to 23 points or less this Sunday, something the Cowboys defense has done in EVERY SINGLE GAME this season.
You know its bad when you have to type “Browns starting quarterback” into google. To be honest, it doesn’t even matter who Cleveland starts this weekend. Neither Josh McCown or Cody Kessler have an average quarterback rating above 54 this season, and they will face a Cowboys defense that is averaging 2 turnovers per game on the road this season (5th). It doesn’t take the best defensive team in the league to shut down the Browns. Cleveland has played only three teams with a winning record as we enter the second half of the season and have lost each of those games by an average of 17 points. Aside from the Patriots, Dallas is the best team they’ll face all year. Reach deep into your pockets this weekend, because this will be a game you’ll want to break the bank for. Expect the Cowboys to win their seventh straight in convincing fashion on Sunday in Cleveland.
TRENDS
DALLAS
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win
- 13-6 against the spread in road games the last three seasons
CLEVELAND
- 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games as a home underdog
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games in November
- 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
- 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games versus a team with a winning record
FINAL SCORE – COWBOYS 30 – BROWNS 17
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-2.5) VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The San Francisco 49ers (1-6) welcome the New Orleans Saints (3-4) into Levis Stadium this Sunday. San Francisco is aiming to snap a 6-game losing streak this weekend and earn their first win against the Saints since a 27-24 overtime win in 2014. As for the Saints, they’re looking for their fourth win in five weeks and to reach .500 for the first time all season. Oddsmakers have listed the Saints as 2.5-point road favourites for this weekend, with a total set of 52-points.
Lets just get this out of the way, Chip Kelly should not be an NFL coach, he ruins NFL teams. Last season in Philadelphia Kelly had the Eagles 30th in the league allowing 401 yards of total offense per game. Without Kelly this season, the Eagles are 8th in the league allowing nearly 75 yards less per game (328 per outing). Last season the 49ers were equally terrible allowing 387 yards of total offense per game, (29th) but they’ve actually gotten worse this year. After eight weeks San Francisco is 30th in the league allowing an average of 407 total yards of offense per game. That number is eye popping when you consider they face Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints this weekend. Entering the second half of the season New Orleans is 2nd in the league scoring an average of 28.7 points per game, and should easily eclipse that total this weekend with how San Francisco has played as of late. In the last three weeks San Francisco has allowed a total of 112 points to be scored, for an average of 37 per game. When you consider they’ve played Arizona, Buffalo and Tampa Bay; and only one of those teams is inside the top 15 teams in points per game, (Buffalo at 26.5) they are in trouble this weekend.
As terrible as the 49ers defense has been, their offense hasn’t been much better. Colin Kaepernick has finally been given the reigns and in two starts has two touchdowns and a completion percentage of 46%. The shortage in touchdown passes isn’t concerning, its the completion percentage that gets me. It is the lowest amongst all quarterbacks in the league that have attempted 60 or more passes, and he is the only starting quarterback in the league below 50%. Kaepernick can use his legs to scramble and extend plays but at some point you’ve gotta complete passes to pick up first downs. When New Orleans begins to run up the scoreboard it’ll all be on Kaepernick to keep San Francisco within striking distance, something we haven’t seen at all this year. The 49ers will be leaning heavily on their run game for much of their matchup because their passing statistics are nearly dead last in every important category this season. If the Saints find a way to slow down Carlos Hyde this game will be over early. It’s hard for even the best offensive teams in the league to keep pace with the rate at which New Orleans scores points – this weekend should be no different. Saints win big and nobody in San Francisco cares as only 200 people show up to this game.
TRENDS
NEW ORLEANS
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread win
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 road games
- 2-0 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record this season
SAN FRANCISCO
- 8-20-1 against the spread in their last 29 games overall
- 1-8-1 against the spread after allowing 350 total yards or more in their previous game
- 0-5 against the spread following a straight up loss of 14-points or more
- 1-6 against the spread this season
FINAL SCORE – SAINTS 35 – 49ERS 23
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5)
The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) travel to Missouri this weekend to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) in Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have been streaking since coming off their week five bye. They’ve won three straight games and aim to stay undefeated at home this season. As for the Jaguars, they’ve lost two straight and look to win their first game in Arrowhead since 2007. Oddsmakers have listed Kansas City as 6.5-point home favourites this Sunday, with a total set of 44-points.
How does Gus Bradley still have a job? In four seasons as the Jaguars head coach Bradley has a 14-41 record. This team has more talent that several teams in this league, yet they’ve done nothing with it. Blake Bortles was the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 draft, defensive end Dante Fowler 3rd overall in 2015, and cornerback Jalen Ramsey was 5th overall in this past years draft. This team is supposed to have their franchise quarterback in place and their defense should have a strong foundation in place to succeed now, yet they have been terrible on both ends of the ball this season. Entering the second half of the year Jacksonville is 23rd in the league scoring an average of 19.9 points per game, and their defense is 26th giving up 28 points per game. How this team is only 7-point underdogs in Kansas City is beyond me. Arrowhead stadium is one of the toughest stadiums in the league to play in, and the Chiefs are on fire right now. Who starts this game at quarterback for the Chiefs is in question, but I honestly don’t think that really matters. Alex Smith left last weekend’s game due to concussion protocol, and Nick Foles stepped in. He finished with two touchdowns and a completion percentage of 72% against the Colts. The way it breaks down, Jacksonville has very similar defensive numbers to Indianapolis, which means Kanas City should roll to their 9th straight home victory. Gus Bradley can’t coach himself out of a paper bag, there is not chance he finds a way to beat soon to be hall of fame coach Andy Reid this weekend.
The Chiefs offense had a slow start to their season, but in the last three weeks they’ve scored an average of 27.7 points per game, 7th most in the league. Much of the success in the last couple weeks have come off their improved offensive line. They have given up only 3 sacks and earned 383 total rushing yards across a three game winning streak. For Jacksonville to contend in this game they’ll have to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback and find a way to force turnovers; two areas they’ve struggled mightily in this season. Entering the second half of the season the Jaguars have only 7 total turnovers this season, and in the last three weeks have recorded only one sack, fewest in the league. Looking at these numbers, it is unlikely that Kansas City turns the ball over in this game; the same cannot be said for the Jaguars offense. Jacksonville is averaging two turnovers per game in their last three games, and that is concerning with Kansas City having a defensive team that forces turnovers like few other teams. Kansas City will run away with this game early; it is simple, they are a much better football team.
TRENDS
JACKSONVILLE
- 0-4 against the spread versus AFC West opponents the last three seasons
- 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games
- 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in week 9
KANSAS CITY
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games in November
- 19-13 against the spread versus conference opponents the last three seasons
- 10-6 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 13 – CHIEFS 28
BUFFALO BILLS (+7.5) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1) return home this weekend to take on the Buffalo Bills (4-4) in CenturyLink Stadium. Buffalo will be looking to snap a two game losing streak and are set to play their first non-divisional game in three weeks. As for Seattle, they aim to win their 4th home game of the season and stay undefeated at CenturyLink this year. Oddsmakers have listed Seattle as 7.5-point favourites for this non-conference matchup, with a total set of 43.5 points expected.
Seattle has been everyones favourite SuperBowl bound prediction this season, but I’m not so eager to jump onto that bandwagon. For the simple reasons that this offense is not the same we’ve seen in previous seasons, the offensive line is currently in shambles, and Russell Wilson is clearly dealing with a knee injury. These three things that don’t add up to a guaranteed Seahawks victory as they welcome a strong Bills defense into town this weekend. Entering week nine Seattle has allowed Wilson to get sacked 22 times, third most in the NFL, and their offense is averaging a meagre 18.7 points per game, 4th fewest. When you compare those numbers to last season where Seattle gave up 46 sacks, they aren’t far off. But in 2015 this same team averaged 26.4 points per game, 4th most in the league. The difference in those numbers, Russell Wilson. We have to look no further than Wilson’s rushing numbers this season to understand that the week three MCL sprain he suffered is clearly plaguing his performance. In the first have of last season Wilson had 303 total rushing yards, and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. In his first seven games this year he is averaging 1.7 yards per carry, and has only 44 total rushing yards. Let those numbers sink in for a minute, and toss in the fact Buffalo leads the league with 26 sacks already this season – this game has Bills cover written all over it.
The Legion of Boom. Everyone knows who you are referring too when you simply say those three words. The only difference is the Legion is hurting right now. Starting strong safety Kam Chancellor is dealing with a groin injury that is proving more troublesome that expected, while defensive end Michael Bennet could undergo knee surgery to repair an injury he has been dealing with since week six. These two guys are the most pivotal players for this defense outside of Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman, and their absences do not go unnoticed. Without these two key contributors Buffalo could lay down some points this weekend. The Bills enter this game 8th in the league averaging 26.5 points per game, are racking up nearly 155 rushing yards per outing (2nd), and have a league fewest 4 turnovers this season. Three strong statistics that I think point toward Buffalo keeping this game very close. Toss in the fact Terrell Pryor is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the entire league, it all adds up to Seattle struggling this weekend. Turnovers will not come easy and pressuring a quarterback that can run to pick up the first down is never easy. Smart money should be sitting on Buffalo this weekend, you can bet your buttons that’s where my money will be placed.
TRENDS
BUFFALO
- 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 games on Monday Night
- 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 road games versus teams with a winning home record
- 6-0 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses the last three seasons
SEATTLE
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 3-8 against the spread in weeks 5 through 9 the last three seasons
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games after allowing 350 total yards of offense or more in their previous game