As we roll into week seven my predictions are beginning to take steam. Last weekend my predictions went 3-1, for a combined 6-1-1 in the last two weeks. The Patriots easily dismantled the Bengals, while the Cowboys upset the Packers, and the Falcons kept the game just close enough in Seattle for my three winners. As for my losing prediction – the Steelers got embarrassed in Miami suffering their second loss of the season. Hopefully I can keep this train rolling and week seven is my best yet. Before I analyze the matchup’s I’m favouring this weekend lets take a look at some important headlines from week six.
- Colin Kaepernick got the nod for San Francisco in week six but it didn’t make a difference. Buffalo secured their fourth straight win and are quietly a game behind the Patriots. They face Miami this weekend which should be a cake walk, then host the Patriots in week eight – should be one of the best all weekend.
- Philadelphia continues to struggle. After going 3-0 into their bye week they’ve dropped two straight and their schedule only gets more difficult. In the next six weeks they face the Vikings, Cowboys, Giants, Falcon and Seahawks – it wouldn’t be shocking to see this team at 3-8 as we enter week eleven. I’m about to fall of the Wentz wagon, you should too.
- OBJ had a massive game in week six and by the celebration you would have thought they had just won the Super Bowl. Lets settle down for a minute and remember they only beat Baltimore, this Giants team has a long way to go before I consider them a playoff contender this season.
- Cam Newton came to play in New Orleans but his defense was once again nowhere to be found. They lost 41-38 in the final minutes of the game and his disgruntled post-game press conference says it all – Cam Newton is not happy. Sitting at 1-5 its a far cry from the 6-0 they were at this point last year – maybe paying Josh Norman in the off-season would have been a good idea.
- Ben Roethlisberger suffered törn meniscus in his knee and will leave Pittsburgh heading into New England this weekend without their best player. The Steelers are certainly still the team to beat in the AFC North but their matchup this weekend certainly got a whole lot less interesting.
- Tom Brady had yet another impressive performance and reminded everyone how lethal the Patriots offense is. They easily defeated Cincinnati 35-17 and the biggest headline from this game had to be Vontaze Burfict stepping on Legarrette Blount’s leg in a scrum. This guy just continues to solidify he is the dirtiest player in this league, and should be facing a serious fine and possible suspension after another offence.
- Biggest blown call of the weekend goes to the referees in the Seattle/Falcons matchup. Atlanta had the ball with under 2 minutes left in the game down two points looking at and 4th & 10 situation where Matt Ryan tossed the ball up to Julio Jones and the refs clearly blew a pass interference call. It allowed the Seahawks to hold on and improve to 4-1 on the season. All the talk this week has been around head coaches inability to challenge a pass interference call – this could be something we see implemented in the coming seasons if situations like this continue to arise.
- How about dem’ Cowboys!? Dak Prescott finally threw his first interception of the season, but I’m crediting that to the fact Brett Farve made contact with Dak before the game started.. either way the Cowboys offensive line is for real. But lets get one this straight, Romo is the man in Dallas and there is a great chance this team would be 6-0 right now if he wasn’t injured. You have to admit, its a great problem for the Cowboys to have.
- Indianapolis absolutely imploded on Sunday night. They were up 23-9 in the third quarter and allowed Houston to storm back, force the game into overtime, and win 26-23. The Colts offense line looks improved but one thing we should all take away from this game is the fact Brock Oswieler shouldn’t be making anywhere near the cash he is earning. The guy is a bum.
- Arizona put to bed any questions of whether they still had a stingy defense. They limited the Jets to 3-points on Monday Night and should be in for a real test this weekend as they host Seattle.
BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5) VS MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Miami Dolphins (2-4) are looking to tie back-to-back victories together for the first time this season when they welcome the Buffalo Bills (4-2) into SunLife Stadium. Miami went 0-2 against the Bills in 2015 and will be looking to defeat Buffalo for the first time since 2014. As for Buffalo, they are rolling. They’ve won four straight and are looking to take a stranglehold in the AFC East standings by knocking off Miami this weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the Buffalo Bills as 2.5-point road favourites for this matchup with a total set of 44-points.
My eyes just about exploded out of my head when I saw this line set at 2.5-points. In all seriously, were the oddsmakers high when they set this line? I would have made the Bills at least 7-point favourites, for one reason and one reason only – the have the best rushing attack in the league entering week seven. Buffalo is 1st place in the league averaging 166.3 rushing yards per game. But even more impressive, in the last three weeks they’ve averaged a ridiculous 213 yards per game on the ground. It looks like firing their offensive coordinator following a week two loss was the correct choice, while LeSean McCoy is quietly making a case for offensive come-back player of the year. McCoy has been plagued with injuries for much of the last few seasons, but he seems to have it together coming into this matchup. In his last two games he has 290 rushing yards, and five touchdowns across his last four. Miami is going to be hard pressed when it comes to shutting this guy down this weekend. They’ve currently got one of the worst defensive teams in the league when it comes to the run. Entering week seven the Dolphins are giving up 147 yards per game, (31st) 4.5 yards per rush, (25th) and just over 7 rushing first-downs (28th) per game. Unless the Dolphins mysteriously find a way to improve their turnover numbers on the season and score their first defensive touchdown of the year – Buffalo is going to smash them.
Two sides of the football – Buffalo has the obvious advantage on the offensive side of the ball but their defensive play has been spectacular lately also. Incase you’ve forgotten, Buffalo became the first team to shut out the Patriots at home in Bill Belichick’s tenure, and entering week seven are giving up an average of 11.7 points per game in their last three. Since week four Buffalo has allowed only two touchdowns, yes TWO. They’re shutting down the run at 3.8 yards per carry, (10th) cutting off the pass allowing a 60.29% completion percentage (9th) and have one best teams in the league at getting after the quarterback with 20 sacks already this season (2nd). This defense has had all the angles covered the last couple weeks and I just don’t see how a struggling Ryan Tannenhill can keep this one close. His offensive line has been shaky all season long and he is amongst the league leaders with 7 interceptions already this season. All Buffalo has to do to win this matchup is shut-down the Dolphin run game, then its all but over. I can’t find a single strength that Miami has to lean on coming into this game, and with Buffalo leading the lead in red-zone defense limiting teams to field goal attempts 33.33% of the time, the fish are entering some hot water this weekend. Home advantage or not – the Dolphins are going to be harpooned this weekend when the Bills leave town.
TRENDS
BUFFALO
- 4-0 against the spread after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game
- 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 divisional games
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games following an against the spread win
MIAMI
- 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 home games
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up win
- 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games versus divisional opponents
FINAL SCORE – BILLS 30 – DOLPHINS 17
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5) VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Minnesota Vikings (5-0) look to make it six straight when they take on the Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) at Lincoln Financial Field. Minnesota should be well rested for this matchup as they’re coming off their bye week and last played over 14 days ago. While the Eagles have lost two straight and aim to earn their first win against the Vikings since the 2009 26-14 NFC Wildcard game. Oddsmakers have listed the unbeaten vikings as 2.5-point road favourites for this game, with a total set of 40 points.
Philadelphia has been skidding since their week four bye, and as they invite Minnesota into town I have no reason to believe that skid won’t continue. The Vikings enter this matchup with arguably the best defensive team in the league and this will be the first true test that Carson Wentz has faced all season. Entering this game the Eagles offense has yet to face an elite defense team. In five games this year they have not played a single team that is inside the top ten in yards allowed per game, and points allowed per game; two categories Minnesota just so happens to be fantastic in. Entering week six the Vikings are 1st in the league giving up a league fewest 12.6 points per game, and 2nd best allowing 287 total yards per game.
The Eagles have yet to be held below 20-points in a single game this season. They enter this weekend the 4th highest scoring offense in the league averaging 27 points per game, but I’m not confident they come anywhere near that total this weekend. Much of Philadelphia’s offensive success this season has come through their run game. The Eagles enter averaging over 100 yards rushing per game. They use the ground game to open up passing lanes for Carson Wentz and give him more time in the pocket. The only problem with that approach is the Vikings are 4th in the league allowing only 78 yards per game, and in five games haven’t allowed a single rushing play over 20 yards. Minnesota has been lethal at shutting down the run, and if they succeed in doing that again this weekend Carson Wentz could be left out to dry in the backfield for the first time this season. Wentz leading the Eagles to victory with his arm – its something we have yet to witness this season.
Sam Bradford enters week seven the only starting quarterback left in football without an interception – I never thought I would be saying that. But in all honesty he has fit in perfectly to this Minnesota offense. He has been making all the right choices, has the #1 receiver in Stephan Diggs that he built chemistry with and an offensive line that protects him better than arguably any team he’s ever been on. Entering this weekend the Vikings have allowed only 7 sacks all season, the 2nd fewest in the league behind only Oakland. If Bradford gets good protection yet again this weekend, all he’ll have to do is sit back and watch his defense do the rest.
Keys to victory in this game could come down to who takes care of the ball better. Minnesota enters 1st in the league with 12 turnovers and 2nd in the league with 19 sacks. Philadelphia started out the season with similar numbers but they have since dropped off. Look for the Vikings to give Wentz his toughest test yet this year, and force the rookie into his first two interception game of the season. Expect for Minnesota to improve to 6-0 as the Eagles drop their third straight.
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 29-9 against the spread in all games the last three seasons
- 10-2 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
- 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as a favourite
- 5-0 against the spread after allowing fewer than 15-points in their previous game
PHILADELHPIA
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3 points
- 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning record
- 9-19-1 against the spread in their last 29 games versus teams with a winning record
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 24 – EAGLES 13
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs (3-2) return home this weekend after a two game road trip to host the New Orleans Saints (2-3). The last time these two franchises met was in 2012 in the SuperDome where the Chiefs secured a 27-24 overtime victory. This time around the Saints come in off back-to-back wins, while the Chiefs aim to win back-to-back games for the first time all season. Oddsmakers have listed the Chiefs as 6.5-point home favourites for this weekend, with a total set of 50.5 points.
Arrowhead stadium is one of the toughest stadiums in the league to play in. Behind Seattle it is arguably the loudest in the league for offensive teams to operate under, and the Chiefs defense is only beginning to reach stride. Entering this game the Chiefs have held opponents to under 20 points per game in their last three, and have 10 turnovers to go with it. They’ve been like sharks around blood when it comes to forcing turnovers on defense and that streak should continue this weekend. Drew Brees enters this game throwing at least one interception in six of his last nine road games. He threw one interception last weekend against a weak Panthers secondary, and extending that streak seems very likely as he’ll see Marcus Peters this weekend who has already recorded 5 interceptions this season; nearly double than the next best defensive player.
This game will be decided by the Saints ability to convert when inside the red-zone. This season they are 1st in the league converting 80% of the time for a touchdown, but this is also one of Kansas City’s strengths. The Chiefs enter week seven the 4th ranked defensive team in the red-zone allowing teams to score only 41.48% of the time. Unless the Saints find a way to convert for 6-points every time in the red-zone Kansas City is going to run away with this game. Why do I say that? because New Orleans defense stinks. Like really really stinks. Last season they allowed the most points ever combined in a regular season, the year before the most ever total yards to opposing offensive teams, and this year hasn’t gotten any better. As they enter Kansas City the New Orleans defense is dead last in the league allowing 33.6 points per game. They’ve allowed Oakland, San Diego, Atlanta and Carolina all to score over 35-points. It’s no secret that the only way this club wins game is by simply outscoring their opposition, and that will be extremely difficult this weekend.
Dating back to last season the Chiefs are 8-2 at home in their last 10 games. While Jamal Charles saw his first action last weekend after missing much of last season with a torn ACL, and is undeniably one of the best due threat running backs in this league. Charles should have his first big feast this weekend and run wild over this Saints defense. As for Alex Smith, he shouldn’t be asked to be much more than check down’ Smith this weekend, something he is exceptional at. Unless the Saints defense shows up and finds a way to contain the Chiefs offense this game will be over early. I’m expecting for the Chiefs to hand New Orleans their first big loss of the season, you should be too.
TRENDS
NEW ORLEANS
- 0-2 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
- 4-6 against the spread in non-conference games the last three seasons
- 2-6 against the spread after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game
KANSAS CITY
- 4-0 against the spread after accumulating 150 yards rushing or more in the previous game
- 6-1 against the spread after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in week seven
TRENDS – SAINTS 20 – CHIEFS 28
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+1) VS DETROIT LIONS
The Detroit Lions (3-3) finish off a three game home stand this weekend when they welcome the Washington Redskins (4-2) into Ford Field. The last time these teams met was in 2013 at FedEx Field where the Lions won 27-20, extending their winning streak to three games against the Redskins. Washington will surely be looking to snap that streak this weekend as they play their first of four games against NFC North opponents this season. Oddsmakers have listed the Lions as 1-point home favourites for this game, with a total set of 50 points expected between these two.
Washington stumbled out the gates this season. They started 0-2 on the year with both losses coming at home. Tough start to the season but since then this team has really tightened up play on both sides of the ball, and the result is a four game winning streak. We all know Detroit has the offense to put up points quickly, but nobody is talking about how the Redskins are quietly shutting down teams defensively. In the last three weeks Washington is 6th in the league giving up only 16.7 points per game, and have held teams to the 4th lowest red-zone percentage at 42.86%. On top of those numbers their secondary has been lights out holding opponents to an average of 183 yards per game, 2nd best in the league. Its beginning to look the money they paid Josh Norman in the off-season was worth it. Norman can shut-down the best receivers in this league which has allowed their defensive line to apply more pressure to opposing quarterbacks. In the last three weeks this team has 7 sacks, two interceptions and three forced fumbles. Defensive coordinator Joe Barry has this Redskins defense working like a well oiled machine right now, and taking down Matthew Stafford and this Lions team should be simple. With both Detroit’s starting running back Theo Riddick, and tight end Eric Ebron nursing ankle injuries, all this team has to do is shut down Marvin Jones – as task Josh Norman should be more than capable of.
Matt Jones. Many people were shaking their heads when the Redskins left Alfred Morris walk in the off-season, but then Matt Jones happened. Jones has two touchdowns, two 100 yard rushing games and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry in his last three starts. It looks like he has officially taken over the starting roll in Washington and should have another big game again this weekend. The Lions enter this weekend allowing opposing running backs to average over 4.7 yards per rush (27th) and total 108 yards per game (21st). Even if the Lions can find a way to shut down Jones they’ll have a whole other task to control – Kirk Cousins and this dynamic receiving corps. DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Jordon Reed (when healthy) are all lethal in open space. With Detroit entering the weekend allowing a league high 73.66% completion rate to quarterbacks this season – one if not more of these guys should have monster games on Sunday. Any way to slice the pie the Redskins are the better of the two teams in this matchup. Don’t be a fool and place all your eggs into the Matthew Stafford basket this weekend, the guy does have a history of throwing multiple interception games. Look for the Redskins to win this game in convincing fashion.
TRENDS
WASHINGTON
- 4-2 against the spread after two or more consecutive victories the last three seasons
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games following an against the spread win
- 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as an underdog
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points
DETRIOT
- 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games in October
- 8-21-3 against the spread after scoring 30 or more points in their last 32 games
- 3-7 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons