With one week in the books, I’ve limped to a 2-2 record. Chicago took the lead early in Houston but their offense stalled in the second half failing to cover the +6.5 I expected. While Cincinnati defeated the Jets in New York, but not but the 3-points listed. The two bright spots in my predictions were the Raiders +1, who had the most exciting finish of the week. While Pittsburgh easily cruised to victory on Monday night walloping the Redskins in Washington. Before jumping ahead into who I like this weekend, lets take a look at some other headlines from week one.
- The Panthers missed a last second field goal to lose consecutive games against the Broncos. Cam Newton got absolutely annihilated in the second half, while the Denver defense looks to be just as good as last season. It’ll be interesting to see where both these teams sit in the coming weeks.
- Kansas City had their biggest comeback in franchise history. Down 24-3 in the third half they came all the way back to win 33-27, a half-point shy of winning me 250 donairs. But I can’t be that upset, that win kept me alive in my survivor pool. This win should give the Chiefs some serious momentum moving forward, and they need it playing both Houston and the Jets in the next two weeks.
- How about Carson Wentz? In his first start at the Philadelphia quarterback he threw for 278 passing yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions on route to a 29-10 Eagles victory. Impressive first game for the rookie, but we’ll have to wait and see how he does against a real NFL team before we start crediting the Eagles for moving up in the draft to select this guy.
- Minnesota might be missing Teddy Bridgewater but their defense carried them to victory in week one. They posted two defensive touchdowns and nailed down the Titans 25-16 in Tennessee. There is no denying the Vikings look to have one of the most talented defensive teams in the league this season, the real test will be this weekend as they host Green Bay in their 2016 stadium and season home opener.
- Apparently Joe Flacco ignited Mike Wallace’s long lost career. They connected for 3 catches for 91 yards, including a 66 yard touchdown pass against the Bills on Sunday. Maybe the Ravens will be more relevant than I expected this season.
- Seattle squeaked past Miami 12-10 on Sunday. A shocker in what many people thought would be a blowout. The major headline from this game is Russell Wilson suffered an ankle injury. His status going into week two is up in the air, and that has to be concerning given the lack of talent this team has on offense this season.
- Well, Indianapolis still stinks. Their defense gave up 39-points at home to a Lions team that doesn’t even have Megatron any longer. They have serious issues on both the offensive line and defensive side of the ball. Andrew Luck will have to start putting up multi-touchdown games or else the Colts will find themselves on the outside looking in come January.
- Biggest upset of the week had to be New England defeating Arizona at home. With Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm and missing Rob Gronkowski they were able to put up 23-points against what most people are labelling the toughest team in the league. Albeit the Cardinals did miss a last season field game due to a bad snap, but there is no excuse for the game being this close with the Patriots missing some of their most pivotal players.
- St. Louis put up a goose egg in San Francisco. The 49ers defense looked ready to play and held the Rams offense behind midfield for much of the evening. I’m not sure what is more concerning, the fact Jarrod Goff doesn’t know where the sun rises and failed to crack the lineup on Sunday, or that Jeff Fisher still has a coaching job.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3) VS HOUSTON TEXANS
The Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) travel south this weekend to take on the Houston Texans (1-0) at NRG Stadium. Expect revenge in the air, and for this to be one of the best games all weekend. The last time these two met was in the playoffs last season where Kansas City waxed the floor in Houston winning 30-0. This time around oddsmakers are expecting a slightly different result, Houston is 3-point home favourites, with a total set of 43.5 points.
Houston proved me wrong week one. Brock Osweiler looked confident behind center slinging the football, and Lamar Miller did just enough to help move the chains. Offensively they finished week one converting 12 of 20 third down attempts for a league best 60%, but this weekend I’m expecting a different kind of story. Kansas City has been one of the best defensive teams in football the last couple seasons. Since the 2014 season kicked off the Chiefs have held opponents to an average of 17.5 points per game, (2nd to only Seattle) and a third down conversion percentage of 35.57% (5th best). Houston thrived on third down last weekend, but this weekend will be the real test. If the Chiefs find success in that category never-mind them covering the spread, winning outright is within the cards.
Alex Smith be considered a poor man quarterback. But there is no denying he deserves to be in this league, and almost always makes the safest choice. At times the “safest choice” has brought criticism, but it also helps keep Kansas City in possession of the ball. Since 2013 they have lead the league with the fewest interceptions thrown per game (less than one per game). Few quarterbacks know how to take care of the ball more than Smith, and that should come in handy against a tough Texans defense this weekend.
Houston should be amped up to redeem themselves for their face plant in last years playoffs, but I don’t expect them to win this game. Middle linebacker Brian Cushing suffered a torn MCL in week one. He is not only one of their best players on the defensive side of the ball, but a major leader in the locker room. It’s no secret J.J Watt can torment quarterbacks, but in the playoffs last season he record zero sacks and only one tackle. Look for Andy Reid to have a game play drawn up to contain Watt, and for a very talented Chiefs defensive roster expose the inexperience of Brock Osweiler under center.
TRENDS
KANSAS CITY
- 11-6 against the spread in the last three seasons when the line is between +3 and -3 points
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games
- 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 road games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 5-2 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival the last three seasons
HOUSTON
- 6-9 against the spread in the last three seasons when the line is between +3 and -3 points
- 1-2 against the spread versus AFC West opponents the last three seasons
- 1-5 against the spread versus Kansas City since 1991
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 20 – TEXANS 13
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5)
The Arizona Cardinals (0-1) look to rebound from a tough loss in week one when they welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) into University of Phoenix Stadium. The last time these two met was 2013 in Tampa, where the Cardinals scored 13 unanswered 4th quarter points to win 13-10. Oddsmakers have listed the Cardinals as 6.5-point home favourites for this conference matchup, with a total set of 50 points.
Arizona fans must have a bad taste in their mouth following week one. That game was circled on several peoples calendars as a potential SuperBowl matchup this year, and a guaranteed victory for the Cardinals facing a Patriots team less Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Boy were we wrong, and while that loss might leave some people with sweaty palms, I’m gonna go ahead and credit that loss to what I’ll call the “Bill Belichick effect”.
One thing is certain, the Cardinals defense stunk it up last weekend. They allowed a whopping 10 third down conversions to the Patriots. That number was good enough for second most all weekend, behind only Washington. A far cry from the 5 per game they averaged all of last season. No need to panic, week one was uncharacteristic for the talent this team possesses on the defensive side of the ball and we should see that alternate this weekend. Bruce Arians didn’t hold back in expressing how he felt his team played, and they should step up to the test in a big way. Arizona finished behind only Carolina last season in turnovers per game at 1.9. With Tampa Bay turning the ball over an average of 2 times per game in their last four games dating back to last season, we could see the Cardinals defense celebrating in the end zone come Sunday.
Jamies Winston had a stellar week one performance but to replicate that this weekend would be shocking. Arizona is no doubt a top 10 defensive team, and Winston struggled last season against top 10 opponents. In two games against top ten defensive teams he posted a 0-2 record with two touchdown passes and six interceptions. The future is undoubtedly bight for Winston, but he is in for a tough matchup this weekend.
Carson Palmer hasn’t lost back-to-back games since the 2013 season. He had a mediocre week one game with two touchdowns and zero interceptions but this weekend should be much more impressive. They’ve got the offensive line to protect him, and the weapons surrounding him to succeed now. With Tampa Bay finishing the 2015 season allowing an average of 1.9 passing touchdowns per game (27th) and an average passer rating of 102.3, (31st) Palmer looks in line to have a big day. Cardinals win big and remind everyone that Tampa Bay defeated a weak Falcon team last weekend, not a SuperBowl contender.
TRENDS
TAMPA BAY
- 0-2 against the spread versus NFC West teams the last three seasons
- 0-3 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival the last three seasons
- 3-7 against the spread off a divisional game the last three seasons
- 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games following an ATS win
ARIZONA
- 15-6 in their last 21 games following an against the spread loss
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games in week two
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in September
FINAL SCORE – BUCCANNEERS 13 – CARDINALS 31
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS DENVER BRONCS (-6)
The Indianapolis Colts (0-1) travel west into Denver this weekend to take on the Broncos (1-0). The last time these two met in Denver was the 2014 postseason where Andrew Luck lead the Colts to a 24-13 victory. Since then the Broncos have won the SuperBowl, and formulated one of the most reverared defensive teams in the league. As for the Colts, they haven’t made the postseason since. Oddsmakers have listed Denver as 6-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 46-points expected between these two.
Indianapolis has won back-to-back games against the Broncos, but that should change this weekend. The Colts have one of the worst defensive teams in football. Passing, Rushing, you name it, chances are teams are finding success converting. Last season the Colts defense finished 25th in the league allowing over 25 points per game, and this year didn’t start much better. In week one they allowed Detroit to score 39 points. This should be concerning considering Detroit is nowhere near an elite offensive team. I would consider them average at best. As for the Broncos offense, Trevor Siemian looked comfortable in his first career start and Denver has plenty of weapons around him to utilize. With over a 10 days since the Broncos last took the field its given them plenty time to prepare for the Colts. I’m expecting we can see that this weekend.
The deciding factor for this game is the strength Denver possess on the defensive side of the ball. They lost key players in the offseason to other teams but ultimately kept their core together and we witnessed that on Thursday night against the Carolina Panthers. They hit Cam Newton seven times and sacked him a total of three times. Keep in mind that was against an above average offensive line, something the Indianapolis does not possess. Andrew Luck was hit fewer times than only the Cleveland Browns quarterback carousel last season (118 times). While they drafted some offensive lineman in the offseason to try and fill the gaping holes, one game is not enough to prepare for Demarcus Ware or Von Miller. Expect Miller to attract a double team for much of the afternoon but that still won’t be enough to conquer this team. Denver allowed only one team to score more than 25-points in the Mile High Stadium last season and finished with a 6-2 record overall. That should be concerning to Colts fans since Indianapolis finished 1-4 on the road last season when they score fewer than 25-points.
TRENDS
COLTS
- 3-5 against the spread in September games the last three seasons
- 0-5 against the spread after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in week two
BRONCOS
- 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 home games
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games in September
- 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – COLTS 16 – DENVER 24
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5) VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Minnesota Vikings (1-0) are set to host the Green Bay Packers (1-0) on Sunday night football this weekend. This marks the first of two meetings between these two division rivals this season, and the official opening of Minnesota’s new billion dollar stadium. The Vikings will look to snap a three game losing streak against the Packers in Minnesota. While Green Bay aims to start 2-0 for consecutive seasons. Oddsmakers have listed the Vikings as 2.5-point home underdogs for their home opener, with a total set of 43.5 points expected.
Minnesota came out flat last weekend but their defense made a statement in the second half. They put up 25 unanswered points and didn’t score a single offensive touchdown. We can no longer deny that the Vikings have one of the best defensive teams in football, but they’ll need some help from their offense if they have any chance at defeating Green Bay.
Could Sam Bradford really start at quarterback this weekend? It hurts me to think that he just might, but it hurts even more to think what they traded away to get him. Losing Teddy Bridgewater for the season definitely hurts but I don’t see a scenario where him or Shaun Hill lead the Vikings to victory this weekend. Green Bay ranks in the middle of the pack when discussing strength of defense, but one thing they’re more than capable of doing is putting pressure on the quarterback. Last season Green Bay ranked 5th in the league earning an average of 3.1 sacks per game on the road, and they started 2016 right where they left off earning 3 sacks last weekend. This is the most concerning statistic for Vikings fans because Sam Bradford has a history of making poor choices, and we know that added pressure makes it that much more difficult. Plus, can we really forget mention the guy has had only two weeks to learn a complete offensive playbook. It’d be a shocker to me if Minnesota was within earshot after three quarters on Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers had a down season last season by many analysts.. if you call 31 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions a down season. It wasn’t a far cry from his 2014 MVP winning season and with Jordy Nelson back in the offense Rodgers is poised to earn his third MVP honour. Minnesota is no stranger to facing Rodgers yet they’ve struggled to contain him most of his career. Since 2012 Rodgers is 5-2 against the Vikings with a 15/1 touchdown to interception ratio. He is one of the most difficult quarterbacks in the league to shut down and this weekend should be no different. I’m expecting the Packers to win this game by at least a touchdown, despite my love for the Vikings their offense just won’t cut it this weekend.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 18-10 against the spread as a favourite the last three seasons
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games in September
- 41-20 against the spread in their last 61 games against the NFC North
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 road games
MINNESOTA
- 0-2 against the spread as a home underdog of 3-points or less the last three seasons
- 1-3 straight up versus Green Bay the last three seasons