Go ahead and give yourself a pat on the back. You’ve made it through six gruelling months without football, and it.. is.. finally.. BACK! The slate has been wiped clean for everyone, and 2016 surely brings new hopes and aspirations for fans an teams alike. Its time to crown a new champion, and we’ve got sixteen weeks to decide who has a shot at the Lombardi Trophy this season. 2016 will surely be packed with everything we’ve all come to expect and more.
Last year was my worst season on record. My predictions finished as terrifying 29-34-1, but hey, 2016 is a new season and I’m full of optimism. As I enter my sixth season making weekly picks, I bring a 180-156-15 lifetime record to the table. Its difficult to believe that its been over five years of making predictions, or that my record sits at 54% across that same span. I’m hoping the fountain of wisdom is overflowing as I enter this season, and 2016 proves to become my most profitable yet. After all, we’re all here to make some money, right?
CHICAGO BEARS (+6.5) VS HOUSTON TEXANS
The Houston Texans aim to defend their AFC South title this weekend when they host the Chicago Bears in their 2016 home opener. The Texans are poised for big things after signing Brock Oswelier from the Broncos in the offseason to a massive contact. If one thing is certain for their 2016 season, it’s unlikely that we see a quarterback carousel like 2015 in which four different players started under centre. As for the Bears they finished below .500 again last year and are looking to bounce back into contention of the NFC North. Oddsmakers have listed Houston as 6.5-point home favourites for their first game of the year, with a total of 44 points expected when these two teams meet on Sunday.
I’m not sold on Brock Osweiler, or convinced Lamar Miller will be their savour at running back – and I’m definitely not buying Houston winning this game by a touchdown. Osweiler got paid, 72 million over the next four years to be exact. This is outrageous considering the guy simply had to stand in for Peyton Manning last season and simply not turn the ball over. A contract this massive for someone who hasn’t even attempted 300 passes or played a complete season, its outrageous. Osweiler has all the attributes that make scouts drool, but I’m not convinced he has that talent necessary to carry the Texans Super Bowl dreams. Chicago isn’t going to be his toughest task, but it will be his first under a new uniform and Chicago always seems to keep games close. In the last seven weeks of 2015 Chicago went 2-5 but lost every game by 6-points or fewer – including a 17-15 defeat against Denver with Osweiler under centre.
The Bears bulked up in the off-season. Their biggest splash was singing linebacker Danny Trevathan from Denver, and they hope that he can immediately improve their defense. Chicago had immense struggles stopping the run, and teams on third-down last season. I’m expecting Trevathan immediately helps with those issues and makes Osweiler’s opening day that much more difficult.
Jay Cutler isn’t exactly a rich mans quarterback, but he’s proven to belong in this league. Through fifteen games last year he actually posted a better average quarterback rating than Brock Osweiler in his eight starts – and did it all without first year wideout Kevin White. White was Chicago’s first round draft pick in the 2015, and missed the entire season with stress fractures in his left shin. He is poised to make his first start in the NFL this week, listed at 6’3, 215 pounds he is a serious threat opposite of Ashlon Jefferey. Houston has one of the best defensive teams in football, but I’m far more excited to see what White is capable of. While was the 4th fastest runner in the 40-yard dash at the 2015 combine posting a time of 4.35 seconds. The kid might be a rookie, but we’ve all seen rookies put up fantastic numbers in their first game.
It wouldn’t be a shocker to see Houston win this game if J.J Watt has any success penetrating the Bears offensive line. But given Oswieler’s lack of experience, I fully expect the Bears to keep this game closer than 7-points. A touchdown is far to many points for an unproven quarterback and the offensive overhaul Houston underwent this offseason.
TRENDS
CHICAGO
- 6-2 against the spread as away underdogs in 2015
- 4-0 against the spread in non-conference games in 2015
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 road games
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points
HOUSTON
- 3-9 against the spread in non-conference games since 2013
- 4-6 against the spread versus NFC North opponents since 2003
- 21-25 against the spread in September games since 2003
FINAL SCORE – BEARS 16 – TEXANS 20
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+1) VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
New Orleans has stumbled the last two seasons. After an 11-5 record in 2013, they have posted back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 1998-99. Saints fans can be nothing but hopeful that streak doesn’t carry over into this season. As for the Raiders, they find themselves caught in the updraft. They won more than six games for the first time since the 2011 season last year, and have all the pieces in place to begin winning now. Oddsmakers have listed the Saints as 1-point favourites for their first home game of the season, with a shootout expected as the over/under is set at 51.
Drew Brees is looking for another contract extension, and his career numbers show he probably deserves it. But at 37 years old, the decline has got to come soon, and the Raiders pass rush is going to push New Orleans offensive line this weekend. Khalil Mack is in line for an MVP season, while off-season signings of Bruce Irving and cornerback Sean Smith only solidify what might be Oaklands best defensive team in the last ten years. Oakland is poised to have their best season in years, and if you want to be the best you’ve gotta win tough non-conference games early in the season. I firmly believe the Raiders can win this game.
Amari Cooper was one of the most hyped players coming out of last years draft and he didn’t disappoint. He finished the season the only rookie receiver to finish with over 1000 yards. Entering his second season expectations are high and New Orleans is the perfect team for him and Derek Carr to warm up on. The Saints had one of the worst secondary’s in football last season. They hit rock bottom allowing a record 46 passing touchdowns in 2015, breaking the longstanding record held by the Broncos of 40 allowed in 1963. Derek Carr might not be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, but he certainly has the talent around him, and a strong enough offensive line to give the Raiders a legitimate shot at winning this game.
New Orleans is always capable of lighting up the Mercedes Benz Super Dome, but Oakland has the defense to match entering this season. Speaking on opposite sides of the ball for each team, the same cannot be said. The Raiders have lost three straight against the Saints dating back to 2004. Expect that streak to get broken this weekend.
TRENDS
OAKLAND
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games on field turf
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games as a road underdog
NEW ORLEANS
- 3-10-1 against the spread in their last 14 as a favourite
- 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as a home favourite
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games in September
FINAL SCORE – RAIDERS 27 – SAINTS 24
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5) VS NEW YORK JETS
New York is a prefect 4-0 in the last 4 season opening games, but their opponents included the Bills, Bucs, Raiders and Browns. Winning games against these four franchises in the last four seasons is nothing to brag about. Cincinnati on the other hand is 43-20 in the last four seasons, and looks primed to contend for another AFC North title. Oddsmakers have listed the Jets as 2.5-point underdogs for this opening week matchup, with a low scoring affair expected as the over/under is set at 41.5.
Will this be the year Cincinnati finally wins a playoff game? Maybe, but either way they’ve been working all offseason to get the bad taste out of their mouth after how last season ended. Up 16-15 with a minute 50 seconds left in their WildCard game Jeremy Hill fumbled the ball and Pittsburgh recovered. Ben Roethlisburger then limped the Steelers down the field and the perfect storm of short passing plays and defensive penalties cost the Bengals a 5th straight one-and-done in the playoffs. Extending their post-season record to an 8th straight loss.
Forget that last paragraph. Cincinnati is good, real good. Many analysts have dubbed them one of the deepest teams in the league this year, and I’m happy to jump on that bandwagon. They lost a couple players in the offseason but their core remains in tact and lest we forget they lost in the last years playoffs without Andy Dalton orchestrating the offense. They picked up Brandon LaFell from Carolina in the offseason and drafted yet another cornerback in the first round of the draft. William Jackson III makes it four 1st round draft picks the Bengals have at cornerback on their roster. This team is extremely deep on both ends of the ball and I’m just not convinced the Jets have the same talent to compete on Sunday.
Expecting another Pro Bowl caliber season from Ryan Fitzpatrick would be foolish. While Sheldon Richardson will have to sit this game out for an arrest during the offseason. New York might have the deepest linebacking core in football but missing Richardson will still hurt them in this game. I’m looking for the chemistry between Andy Dalton and A.J Green to be evident in this game, and the one-two punch of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill to be enough to overpower a stout Jets defense. New York just simply cannot matchup on the offensive side of the ball, and that should be evident when the Bengals carry a big lead into halftime.
TRENDS
CINCINNATI
- 4-0 against the spread as an away favourite last season
- 8-0 against the spread in their last 8 road games
- 25-9-2 against the spread in their last 36 games in September
- 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in week one
- 6-0 against the spread in September games the last three seasons
NEW YORK
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points
- 2-5-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in September
- 3-8 against the spread when the line is between +3 and -3 the last three years
FINAL SCORE – BENGALS 26 – JETS 14
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Washington Redskins begin their NFC East title defense this weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have won the division two of the last four seasons, and that should be considered a monumental accomplishment. Before 2012, the last time Washington placed first in the NFC East was 1999. As for Pittsburgh, they have SuperBowl or bust aspirations again this season. The AFC North is arguably the toughest division in football, but the Steelers have the necessary pieces in place to make a third straight playoff appearance. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Redskins as 3-point home underdogs for their first game of the season, with a set of 50 total points expected.
Big Ben might be without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant to begin the season, but that shouldn’t hurt this weekend. Washington is riding high off their division title and playoff appearance, but a repeat would be miraculous. They earned a 9-7 record in 2015 with wins against St. Louis, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, New York, Chicago, Buffalo, Dallas, and Philadelphia twice. Notice something about all those teams? Not a single one made the playoffs last season, or finished with a winning record. In their two games against playoff teams (Carolina and New England) they were outscored 71-26. Then they got pummelled in the playoffs 35-17 at home against Green Bay. 8 months is enough time for change, but not long enough for Washington to defeat the Steelers or keep this game anywhere close to three points.
Josh Norman might be the biggest offseason acquisition for any team in 2015. He had an incredible season in Carolina last year, but that was under a heavy zone defensive scheme. It allowed him plenty opportunity to focus more on the quarterback and less on man-to-man coverage. Washington will be expecting different things form him this season, and their defensive roster is nowhere nearly as talented as the Panthers. He’ll be expected to become a shut-down corner and I’m just convinced thats the role he is capable of playing. Sure he had 4 interceptions last season, but without the safety help up top those could easily turn into touchdowns this season. Antonio Brown will be the ultimate test to begin his new chapter in Washington, and I would be shocked if he held him anywhere under five catches and 50 yards.
This weekend marks the 6th time these two teams have met since 1997. It just so happens that you’ll have to turn back the pages until 1991 for the last time the Redskins beat the Steelers. Pittsburgh has won every single game since 1997, and it hasn’t even been close. In all but one game they won by nine or more points. Don’t be surprised when Pittsburgh crests the 30-point mark this weekend, and extends the streak against Washington to six wins.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in September
- 22-15 against the spread when playing on Monday Night since 1992
WASHINGTON
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games on Monday Night
- 2-6 against the spread in Non-Conference games the last three seasons
- 18-24 against the spread when playing at home since 2011