Only one more weekend of football to decide who travels west to San Francisco and plays in Super Bowl 50. My predictions finished a combined 2-2 in the divisional round last weekend. Both the Chiefs and Cardinals let me down during Saturdays match-ups, but the Panthers and Steelers pulled me out of the gutter on Sunday. Before I jump ahead onto who I’m predicting plays for the Lombardi Trophy this season – here’s a little recap of this past weekends games and which way I see teams trending.
KANSAS CITY VS NEW ENGLAND
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick once again proved everyone that its a poor choice to bet against them when playing at home. They snapped Kansas City’s 12-game win streak and Andy Reid has officially fallen to 1-5 in career games versus the Patriots. It would have been exciting to see an all AFC West conference championship, but here we are with the Patriots advancing yet again. It’ll be interesting to see how Kansas City rebounds in the off-season and what they look like once Jamal Charles gets reintroduced into the lineup next season.
GREEN BAY VS ARIZONA
This could go down as one of the most exciting games in playoff history. Majority of the game was a battle over field position, but in the in the final three minutes of the 4th quarter these two combined for 17-points. We witnessed the second successful final second hail-mary completion from Rodgers and the Packers this season, and before you knew it overtime was upon us. After one failed attempt at flipping the coin for possession in overtime, the referee picked it up and immediately flipped it again without asking Rodgers if he wished to call it different. This will be disputed as something that could have changed the outcome of this game since the Packers never saw the ball. It has to irk Packers fans to see their team lose out for a second straight year in such a tough way. Needless to say – Larry Fitzgerald controlled this game and won it for Arizona.
SEATTLE VS CAROLINA
Five minutes into this game it was over. Carolina scored on their first offensive possession of the game and picked off Wilson for 6-points in their first defensive play. The Panthers rode a 31-0 score into halftime and while the Seahawks made a valiant effort falling only 7-points short of a comeback – Carolina reminded everyone just how dominant they have been this season. For the first time in two years Seattle will not be playing in the Superbowl and you just have to wonder how the hangover from last years result impacted them this season. Maybe next year they’ll return to the big dance. After all, Russell Wilson is only beginning to enter his prime.
PITTSBURGH VS DENVER
The Steelers could smell victory for a majority of this game until a costly 4th quarter turnover cost them the game. Denver’s defense played incredible allowing only 13-points but I feel like it might get ignored that it was the Steelers defense that held the Broncos without a touchdown for over three and a half quarters. With Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell in the lineup this would have been a completely different game. The future is bright for Pittsburgh as opposed to the do-or-die situation in Denver. It looks to me like after this season Peyton Manning will be hanging up the pads.
Despite a 4-4 record in the playoffs this season, I take comforting in knowing that since 2013 my predictions are a perfect 4-0 in the conference championships. Lets take a look at who I’m favouring to carry on their season this weekend, and earn a shot at winning Super Bowl 50 in early February.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-2.5) VS DENVER BRONCOS
The Denver Broncos (13-5) and New England Patriots (13-5) square off in Mile High Stadium this weekend to decide whom from the AFC stamps a ticket to the Super Bowl. The history isn’t so rich behind these organizations, but the history between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady flourishes. They have met a total of four times in the playoffs in their careers. Brady won the first two meetings, while Manning has won the last two as a member of both the Colts and Broncos. Oddsmakers are expecting their 5th playoff meeting to produce yet another close outcome. New England has been listed as 2.5-point road favourites, with a total set of 44-points expected.
Here we are, episode eighteen in the Brady versus Manning saga. There has been several ups and downs throughout the first seventeen games, and this could very well be the final episode. Looking back, it has been a whirlwind of excitement through the years. Their first meeting was in September of 2001 when Brady was the ripe age of 24. The Patriots went on to win that game 44-13 – followed by the next five straight. It wasn’t until 2005 that Manning got the monkey off his back and earned his first victory against the Patriots in seven career attempts. From that day onward Manning would go 4-2 wearing a Colts jersey versus the Patriots.
Since coming to the Broncos Manning has a 1-3 record versus New England. But most importantly, that one win was a playoff victory in 2014 enroute to the Broncos Super Bowl run. Fans in Denver will surely be hoping for a similar outcome again this weekend, but man has a lot changed for this Broncos offense in the last two seasons. In 2013 under Manning the Broncos were averaging over 36 points per game – 8 points more than the next highest scoring team (New England). Behold 2015, Denver averaged only 18 points per game (22nd in the league) and scored 30 points only once the entire season. The Patriots you ask? They haven’t gone anywhere, they closed out year averaging 29 points per game (3rd most in the league).
It’s been a slippery slope for the Broncos offense, and all I can say is father time seems to be finally catching up with Peyton Manning. This time around it will not be a case of whether the offensive talent that Manning is surrounded by will be enough to carry his team to the Super Bowl – yet will the Broncos defense be enough to carry this team’s championship aspirations. Denver was the #1 ranked defensive team in the league this season in several statical categories, but I’m expecting this Patriots offense to be the straw that breaks the camels back.
Tom Brady has done nothing but win football games once again this season. Denver got the better of the Patriots earlier this season – but the return of Julian Edelman on the Patriots offense makes them whole again. In their December meeting Tom Brady was without Edelman and it should be acknowledged just how important he is to their offensive success. With him in the lineup this season New England went 10-0 and averaged over 33-points per game. Without him they are 3-4 and averaged merely 23-points per game. Gronkowsk is often considered the X-factor on this Patriots offense but with Edelman back they should be unstoppable. Winning – lets all remember that this is just what New England does.
Seeing Peyton Manning go out on top would be special considering the career he has had. But the Patriots have proven time and time again that they are built for January. Few teams have been able to slow them down this season and I can’t see Denver accomplishing that feat again despite home field advantage. The Broncos has lived off turnovers this season and Tom Brady threw the fewest interceptions out of any starting quarterback in the league this season. It looks to me like New England will be making a second straight Super Bowl appearance.
TRENDS
NEW ENGLAND
- 57-34 against the spread when revenging a loss against an opponent since 1992
- 4-1 against the spread in playoff games the last three seasons
- 24-12 in playoff games since 1992
DENVER
- 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 playoff games
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog
- 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 home games
LOOT VALUE – 900
FINAL SCORE – PATRIOTS 29 – BRONCOS 24
ARIZONA CARDINALS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5)
The Carolina Panthers (16-1) and Arizona Cardinals (14-3) square off this weekend to decide who from the NFC earns a spot in Super Bowl 50. Arizona will be looking to improve upon the 7-1 road record they established this season. While the Panthers are hoping to repeat last seasons Wildcard result were they hosted the Cardinals and advanced onto the divisional round after winning 27-16 at Bank Of America Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting a close outcome this weekend placing the Panthers as 2.5-point home favourites – and a high scoring affair with the over/under set at 47.5 points.
Cam Newton versus Carson Palmer. Both of these quarterbacks have played well above expectations this season and both are prime candidates to win MVP honours this year. They each lead their teams to some of the best records in the league this season and together combine for only four losses all year. The great debate over who is the better of the two offensive teams will be decided this weekend – and I can’t wait.
This game should be an instant classic. It pins the two best offensive teams in the league against one another. Carolina closed out the regular season averaging over 31 points per game. While the Cardinals finished a close second as the only other team averaging over 30-points per game. Both have been juggernauts and unstoppable during stretches, but Carolina has the edge in this game – home field advantage. The Panthers are 12-0 in their last 12 home games dating back to last season, and closed out the regular season with a league best +15 scoring margin at home. Only two games were decided by less than 7-points in Bank of America Stadium this season, and in the last four home games the Panthers have won by an average of 25-points. Home Field advantage should prove to be exactly what this team needs to advance to the next round.
Arizona has to focus first and foremost on shutting down the Panthers running game to have a shot at victory. In the first play from scrimmage last weekend Jonathan Stewart ripped off a 59-yard run, and it was all downhill for the Seahawks from there. Carolina enters this game #1 in rushing plays per game, (33.4) rushing play percentage, (50.4%) and rushing touchdowns per game (1.2). This team has found tremendous success in running the football and this should come as no surprise. Cam Newton is amongst the most mobile quarterbacks in the league, and with a strong run game their passing game opens up because play-action becomes easy and effective. Slowing down the Panthers passing attack without first snubbing out their running game is nearly impossible, and I’m not sure Arizona has the pieces to accomplish either feat. They will be without possibly their most important player defensively in Tyrann Mathieu due to a season ending injury in week 15. He is the glue that hold together this stealthy secondary and his five interceptions led the Cardinals this season. This is possibly the least discussed topic entering this weekends matchup, and a major loss that I expect could cost Arizona this game.
Carson Palmer didn’t win the game last weekend for Arizona, it was Larry Fitzgerald. He put the Cardinals on his back in overtime and his 176 yards and one touchdown display that. Josh Norman will be tasked with shutting him down this weekend and it looks like the pieces are in place for success. Norman was in discussion for the best cornerback in the league this season, and this statistic displays it is true – Norman held Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, TY Hilton and Dez Bryant to 9 receptions and 89 yards COMBINED in the first 15 weeks of the regular season. If you think that Norman is going to have a difficult time shutting down Fitzgerald, then give your head a shake. The Panthers defense caught three more interceptions (24) than their total passing touchdowns allowed all year (21). Holding the Cardinals big play makers in check is completely in reach for this team.
TRENDS
ARIZONA
- 0-3 against the spread in January games the last three seasons
- 1-5 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record this season
CAROLINA
- 7-0 against the spread this season when the line is between +3 and -3
- 7-1 against the spread as a home favourite of 3-points or less the last three seasons
- 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as a home favourite
- 6-0 against the spread after allowing over 250 yards passing in their previous game
LOOT VALUE – 900
FINAL SCORE – CARDINALS 28 – PANTHERS 34
By now you can see that I’m favouring a rematch of SuperBowl XXXVIII between the Panthers and Patriots. If the games unfolds the way that I expect this weekend then we will surely be treated to an incredible game in San Francisco in a little over two weeks. But before I get to ahead of myself – here is a couple proposition bets that I’ve got circled on my betting tickets this weekend. There is plenty of value to be found outside of picking winners this weekend, and here’s were I see some of that value.
BRONCOS VS PATRIOTS – TRIBET – ANY OTHER RESULT
If you think that the Broncos have a shot at winning the game this weekend then putting some money on a Tribet a opposed to Denver straight up is offering more value. At 3/1 you’re getting a 33% more return on your cash if the game ends by 5-points or less in either direction. Denver played five games this season that ended within 5-points or fewer and these two teams always play close games. Its just a gamble on whether you think this game will end by a field goal or a final second touchdown.
JULIAN EDELMAN – OVER 7.5 RECEPTIONS
This bet is juicy. Edelman is one of Tom Brady’s favourite wide receivers and the targets confirm that. In the last six post-season games Edelman has seen 77 targets (nearly 13 per game) and posted only one game with less than 8 catches. Unless something drastic unfolds or Edelman gets injured he should reach that mark again this weekend. Denver is great against the pass but Gronkowski will surely relieve some pressure in the slot. I’m expecting Edelman to have a big game this weekend.
LONGEST TOUCHDOWN SCORED – ARIZONA/CAROLINA – OVER 42.5
This should be a no brainer. Arizona has some of the best deep threat receivers in the league. Their defense and kick return teams have scored several long touchdowns this season. While Carolina is no stranger to airing it out or breaking off a long run. It’s just a question of whether that long play turns into a scoring play. I’m expecting we see at least one touchdown over 50 yards this weekend.
SCORECAST – ROB GRONKOWSKI TO SCORE FIRST TOUCHDOWN – PATRIOTS WIN BY 1-6
This bet is what some would call a long shot. At 21/1 I’m looking purely at the value in this. Tom Brady loves looking to Gronkowski in the red-zone and he is one of the hardest weapons to cover within scoring range. If New England gets the ball first then it should just be a question of who catches the first score. The Patriots were one of the best teams in the regular season scoring points in the first quarter. While nobody had more touchdowns (38) or fewer interceptions (7) than Tom Brady this season.