NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND – 2015 PLAYOFFS

Wildcard weekend is a wrap – and boy was it wild. For the first time in NFL history every single road team came out on top. Kansas City absolutely smashed Houston 30-0. Pittsburgh snuck out a victory 18-16 in Cincinnati due to a number of bone-head defensive penalties in the final two minutes. While Seattle got luckier than a leprechaun at the end of the rainbow when Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard chip shot to ice the game in Minnesota – and Green Bay found their 2014 offensive form putting up 35-points in Washington on route a 35-17 victory. Entering the divisional round my play-off record sits at 2-2. Both Kansas City and Minnesota covered – while Pittsburgh fell a half-point short and Washington got dismantled at home. But enough about last week, lets look at this weekends divisional round match-ups.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+5) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) will aim to extend their 11-game win streak when they enter New England (12-4) this weekend. The last time these two teams met in Foxborough the Patriots embarrassed the Chiefs 34-3 with a 94-yard two touchdown performance by Rob Gronkowski. Oddsmakers don’t expect quite the blow-out this time around with the Patriots being listed as only 5-point favourites for this playoff matchup.

New England might be reigning Superbowl champions, but I’m a firm believer that Kansas City is the stronger of two teams entering this weekend. Nobody has been able to beat them since week six of the regular season and they are arguably the best defensive team remaining in the AFC. In the last thirteen games not a single team has scored over 22-points against them and that should be concerning for Patriots fans. New England has been far from impressive as of late, they are 2-4 in the last six weeks and have failed to score more than 20-points in each of the last two weeks. Injuries have plagued them as of late and while they expect to have most talent back healthy, including Julian Edelman – Kansas City has the pieces in place to contest the reigning Superbowl champions. The Chiefs allowed 16.9 points per game this season, (2nd) while holding opponents to a completion percentage of 56.79% – best in the entire league. With such stingy defense it has given their pass rush plenty opportunities to pray on opposing quarterbacks. They closed out the season with 47 sacks – 4th most in the league. While that added pressure has resulted in them becoming one of the best teams in the league at creating turnovers. The Chiefs finished 2nd in the league behind only Carolina with an average turnover margin of +1.1 per game this year, and an incredible 22 total interceptions. Tom Brady might be in discussion for MVP this season but the last time he played Kansas City he threw two interceptions and posted his worst rating in the last two years (59.9). What about Rob Gronkowski you say? Kansas City was the best team in the league this season against opposing tight ends this season, allowing 4.3 fantasy points per game.

For Kansas City to win this game they’ll have to expose the Patriots defensively. That means running the ball early and sticking to it. Many teams this season have attempted to run the ball against the Patriots and they either fail miserably – or fall behind so quickly they abandon it to play catchup. The Chiefs cannot fall victim to this, and frankly I would be surprised if they did. They finished the year averaging 127-yards per game on the ground, (6th most in the league) and their 4.7-yards per carry was 2nd highest among all teams. Jamaal Charles might no longer be catching passes out of the backfield but their running back by committee is working just dandy.  If they keep the running lanes open it will give Alex Smith time to relax in the pocket and find Travis Kelce and Jermey Maclin downfield.

The last time Bill Bellichick and Andy Reid met in the playoffs it was Super Bowl XXXIX. New England got the better of Philadelphia 24-21 and you can bet your buttons that Andy Reid hasn’t forgotten about that. Expect some trickery to be included in this matchup – and for the Patriots to get sent packing. Thats right, Kansas City shocks the league when they make it twelve straight and stamp a ticket to the AFC conference championship.

TRENDS

KANSAS CITY

• 6-0 against the spread versus AFC East opponents the last three years
• 17-9 against the spread in all road games the last three years
• 9-3 against the spread after allowing less than 15-points in their previous game

NEW ENGLAND

• 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
• 0-4-2 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
• 2-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games overall

LOOT VALUE – 850

FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 24 – PATRIOTS 21

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5)

The Arizona Cardinals (13-3) are set to host their first home playoff game since 2010 when the Green Bay Packers (11-6) travel into University of Phoenix Stadium – and wouldn’t you know it, it’s against the exact same team. The Packers and Cardinals met in the 2010 wildcard round, and Arizona won a shootout 51-45 in overtime. This time around the Cardinals are listed as 6.5-point home favourites, with another high scoring game expected as the over/under is set at 50-points.

Green Bay put up 35-points last weekend and morphed into the offensive team we’ve all come to expect. But I’m not ready to give credit just yet. Washington had porous defense all season and didn’t win a single game against a team with a winning record all year – the same cannot be said for the Cardinals. Arizona went 6-2 at home this season and obliterated the Packers 38-8 in week sixteen in Phoenix. They’ve got one of the best defensive teams in the entire league and to see Rodgers put up anywhere near 30 points would be impressive. The Cardinals held opponents to an average of 19.6 points per game this season (6th) and the 6th lowest completion percentage at 59.86%.

Arizona has one of the best run stopping defensive teams in the league. Their 91.2 yards per game average places them 6th best this season. I’m looking at this as the most difficult obstacle for the Packers to overcome this weekend. If they get Eddie Lacey and James Starks going it’ll give Rodgers more time and security in the pocket and limit the Cardinals ability to call defensive blitzes. The last time they met Rodgers was sacked a season high 8 times for 70 yards. Rodgers surely hasn’t forgotten that game and I’m not convinced they’ve done enough to prevent the same thing from happening. In the last three weeks Green Bay has allowed an average of 5 sacks per game, and overall they finished the year with only 8 rushing touchdowns, 6 fewer than the 2014 season. Their offensive line has struggled tremendously to open running lanes and protect Rodgers this season, and with the Cardinals having one the best pass rushing defensive teams in the league, it’s going to be an uphill battle to revenge the week sixteen loss.

Everyone was ready to write Carson Palmer off a couple seasons ago – everyone but the Arizona Cardinals. They’ve hung in through his multiple knee injuries and Palmer has done nothing short of reward this organization this season. For the first time since 2009 the Cardinals are NFC West champions and Palmer is not only an MVP candidate – but has created one of the most feared offensive teams in the league. After a week of rest the Cardinals enter the divisional round as the 2nd highest scoring team in the league, (30.6 PPG) while recording the highest yards per play (6.3) and total yards per game (408). Few teams have been able to slow the pace at which the Cardinals offense operates, and Green Bay doesn’t seem to have those pieces in place. Entering this game they are allowing 4.5-yards per carry to opposing running backs, (29th) and 117 yards per game (21st). If Arizona gets a sniff of weakness on their defensive line things could turn ugly real quick.  The Cardinals closed out the season converting 46.97% of the time on third down (3rd highest). Which means keeping Arizona to third and long situations is the Packers only hope – and the only way to assert such a game-plan is to shut down the running game. Something I just don’t see happening. I love to see Green Bay succeed just as much as anyone else, but they just aren’t build to withstand this Cardinals roster. The depth and talent is going to prove to much come Saturday.

TRENDS

GREEN BAY

• 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 road games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
• 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games as an underdog
• 0-5 against the spread after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game

ARIZONA

• 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games following an against the spread loss
• 27-12 against the spread in their last 39 games following a straight up loss by 14-points or more
• 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 playoff home games

LOOT VALUE – 700

FINAL SCORE – PACKERS 17 – CARDINALS 31

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks (11-6) continue their bid for a third straight Superbowl appearance when they enter Carolina this weekend to take on the Panthers (15-1). In the last three seasons these teams have begun a rivalry, this game marks their fifth meeting. In their most recent matchup Carolina defeated Seattle 27-23 in week six. But it is Seattle who won at this time last year 31-17. This game is a replica of last years divisional playoff round, except Seattle had home field advantage and were listed as 10.5-point home favourites. This time around the Panthers have the better record and look to complete a season sweep of the Seahawks. Oddsmakers have listed Carolina as 2.5-point favourites with a low scoring affair expected setting the over/under at 44.

Not many people expected Carolina to have the season they did this season, but you wouldn’t have had to dig very deep to have predicted it. Last season the Panthers barely limped into the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record, but in 2013 they were one of the most feared defensive teams in the league. They finished 12-4 and found themselves in this exact position. Seattle isn’t going to be any cake walk, that is for certain. But the Panthers are built to last this season and I think their talent should not only shine in this game, but their experience from playing in the divisional round of the playoffs in each of the last three years is invaluable.

Seattle has been heavily praised the last three years for their play. They are extremely talented on defense and Russell Wilson could easily become the best quarterback in this league in the next five years. But why is nobody discussing just how lucky this organization has been? Last season in the conference championship Green Bay blew a massive 4th quarter lead and capped it off fumbling an onside kick – something that only happened 13.8% of the time this season. Flash forward to this season and Blair Walsh just put Seattle through to the divisional round after missing a 27-yard field goal wide left. As Ray Finkel would say “laces in”. But honestly, the stats were in this guys favour. He was 33 out of 34 field goals inside 30-yards in his career to that point. I’m not saying that Seattle isn’t a good football team. I’m simply implying they’ve fell on the lucky side of the coin in the last couple years, and I have a feeling that luck might just run out this weekend.

Carolina has been a defensive powerhouse this year. They closed out the season 6th in points allowed per game, (19.2) 3rd in yards allowed per play, (4.9) 2nd in yards allowed per pass (5.8) and 1st in turnovers per game (1.2). Few offensive schemes have been able to get the better of this secondary and I’m not convinced that Seattle has those pieces. The Seahawks have an incredible run game but I feel that Carolina can shut that down this weekend which means Russel Wilson will be relied upon 100% to carry them to victory. Without a pro-bowl centre in Max Unger things have become sloppy, and protection has become a serious issue for Seattle. Lofting up passes to Doug Baldwin this weekend simply won’t suffice – Josh Norman has proven he deserves to be in the discussion as one of the best cornerbacks in the league. Its going to take 25 points or more for Seattle to win this game, something I’m not convinced they can accomplish entering Carolina.

Cam Newton has been clutch this season. He’s lead four 4th quarter comebacks this season and shown us all that he is an elite quarterback. This game will be his biggest challenge yet, but his experience in the last three seasons against Seattle is the kicker here. He rallied the troops down three points with just over two minutes left earlier this season for a 80-yard game winning touchdown drive – doing this again at home should be a breeze. Newton is ready to take the next step, and I think we see that this weekend.

TRENDS

SEATTLE

• 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game
• 1-3-1 against the spread after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
• 1-2 against the spread when revenging a loss against an opponent this season

CAROLINA

• 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 home games
• 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as a home favourite between 0.5-3 points
• 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
• 6-0 against the spread where the line is between +3 and -3 this season

LOOT VALUE – 900

FINAL SCORE – SEAHAWKS 16 – PANTHERS 24

 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+7.5) VS DENVER BRONCOS

The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) continue their bid for a 7th Superbowl when they enter Denver this weekend to take on the Broncos (12-4). These teams might not be division rivals but a rich history resides. They have faced each other three times since 2012 and most recently in week fifteen this season where the Steelers won 34-27 to keep their playoff hopes alive. Pittsburgh surely hopes they can recreate a similar outcome this weekend, but oddsmakers are heavily favouring the Broncos at home listing them as 7.5-point favourites.

The last time these two teams met in the post-season Tim Tebow was the quarterback for the Denver Broncos and he connected with Demaryius Thomas for a 80-yard touchdown pass in overtime to advance past the wildcard round. A lot has changed for both these organizations since this game took place. But I’m still expecting a closer outcome than what many could be envisioning.

The Broncos have built success around a strong defense scheme this season. They started the season 7-0 and a large part was due to the fact they held opponents under 25-points in every game until November. Nobody was able to find weakness inside or outside the lines and much praise can be placed around nearly every aspect of their defensive play. But if one team has the pieces in place to penetrate that, it is Pittsburgh. The 34 points the Steelers scored against Denver in week 15 was the most Denver allowed all season long and I believe this team is capable of racking up just as many this weekend.

Analysts and fans are overly concerned over the status of Antonio Brown’s health for this game, and I will be the first to agree he is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. But lets just stop for a minute and analyze the situation. This is the NFL we are talking about and few teams are given the opportunity to win the Superbowl any given season. Brown is resting this entire week and won’t practise in full so he can be ready come Sunday night. Why else do you think they would have flexed this to be the last game played this weekend? Brown will play, healthy or not, and still make a major difference in this game just by the coverage he attracts. While Martavis Bryant showed the world last weekend he can be clutch with the best touchdown grab we’ve seen this season. I’m expecting big things from a Steelers offense that finished 5th in points scored per game this year, (25.9) and 2nd in yards per pass (7.7). Nobody stands in the pocket better than Big Ben, we should witness that again this weekend.

Brock Osweiler or Peyton Manning? Apparently this weekend it will be Peyton Manning and I’m not convinced that is the best option for the Broncos here. Manning has had nothing short of a hall of fame career but he has shown limited mobility, weakening arm talent, and the inability to make successful decisions this season. Their 7-0 start was purely strong defensive play. Not to bash Peyton, but in 10 games started this season he has 9 touchdowns compared to 17 interceptions. He hasn’t played one full game yet without a pick and the Broncos defense cruised through the first half of the regular season averaging one defensive touchdown per game. If Manning starts to feel the pressure in this game and his offensive line fails in protection then mistakes are inevitable. This game is going to turn into handoff-handoff-handoff-short manageable throw for Manning. I’m just not convinced that will be enough to win. Pittsburgh closed out the season holding teams to the 6th fewest yards per carry, (3.8) 5th fewest rushing yards per game (91.2) and only 6 total rushing touchdowns all year (2nd fewest). I’m comparing apples to oranges over here, but Pittsburgh looks in great shape to keep this game a close affair. Snoop Dogg will be riding the Steelers this weekend, and so will I.

 

TRENDS

PITTSBURGH

• 12-4 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
• 9-1 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season the last three seasons
• 11-3-1 against the spread in their last 15 games in January

DENVER

• 11-29 against the spread in their last 40 games as a home favourite between 3.5-10 points
• 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 playoff games as a favourite
• 0-4 against the spread in 4 divisional playoff games

LOOT VALUE – 850

FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 28 – BRONCOS 26