Well, yet another week has come and gone and my record fails to improve. I closed out week thirteen with another stalemate of 2-2. Miami and Carolina failed to cover, while the Broncos and Chiefs not only won against the spread, but also cruised to victory. With only three weeks left in the regular season my record sits at 22-26-1. It’s going to take some serious black magic to finish above .500 this season, but things gotta give eventually. Plus, everyone knows the final weeks of the regular season is where all the bread and butter should be made anyways. But before I dive into my extremely accurate and on point predictions this week, (sarcasm, just incase you missed that) here’s a little recap of the action from last week and how the playoff picture is shaping up.
- Once again, Carolina remains undefeated. Just when it looked as if the Saints would snap their unbeaten streak, Cam Newton lead the Panthers on yet another 4th quarter come-back win and posted 5 touchdowns in the making. If this guy isn’t the sure-shot front-runner for the MVP award this season I don’t know who is. He is virtually changing the way teams look at the quarterback position and has proven throughout the year that he can be a successful pocket passer.
- Hail-Mary in Ford Field. Aaron Rodgers heaved one up with no time left and Richard Rodgers came down with it 66-yards away. This has to build momentum for the Packers going forward – its just too bad it came off the backs of Lions fans. It’s only more difficult to be a Cleveland Browns fan right now.
- Tom Coughlin and the Giants shot themselves in the foot again on Sunday. Up 10-points with less than 10 minutes remaining in the game Coughlin decided to go for it on 4th down in Jets territory and put the game away with a touchdown instead of making it a two-score game with a field goal. Well, that came back and bit him in the ass. The Jets roared back and won the game on a field goal in overtime. The New York Jets now sit in the final wild-card position in the AFC, while New York has flopping into a three way tie with the Redskins and Eagles for the NFC East division lead.
- Atlanta lost their 5th straight game and now sit at 6-6. They’ve officially dropped out of a playoff spot and after starting 6-1 are looking at the most epic collapse all season. Facing Carolina twice in the next four weeks isn’t an easy task – they’ve gotta snag a victory in at least one of those games if they have any chance of sneaking into the playoffs.
- Seattle flexed in Minnesota and blew their doors off 38-7. It burdens me to say this being a Vikings fans, but they shouldn’t have scored any points in this game. A kick-return for a touchdown was the sole scoring play for the Vikings. What can we take away from this? Seattle might be good again – either way this team should make the playoffs. They face only one team in the final four weeks with a winning record.
- Tennessee and Jacksonville – most exciting game all weekend. Might be tough to believe but the game ended 39-42 Tennessee and Marcus Mariota ripped off a 87-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Titans fans have a lot to look forward to in the coming years.
- Kansas City won yet again and are 6-1 in the last seven weeks. They are playing incredibly well right now and don’t face a single team in the last four weeks with a winning record. It wouldn’t be out of the question for this team to finish 11-5.
- Biggest upset of the weekend goes to Philadelphia knocking off the New England Patriots. It was the first back-to-back loss New England has suffered since the beginning of the 2012 season. This game was a perfect example of just how important Gronkowski and Edelman are to this Patriots offense. New England fans better hope they both get healthy soon because without them on the field, winning a second-straight Superbowl seems impossible.
BUFFALO BILLS VS PHILADELPIA EAGLES (-1)
The Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) return home this weekend after a two game road trip to take on the Buffalo Bills (6-6). This is an absolute must win matchup for the Eagles, they sit tied for first place in the division and need to take advantage of being the only team within the NFC East playing at home this weekend. As for Buffalo, they’re 6-6 and have playoff life. They desperately need to win out the remainder of the season to contend for a wild-card position, and I’m thinking the Eagles could be a great stepping stone. Oddsmakers have listed the Eagles as 1-point home favourites for this game, with a total set of 47-points expected.
Philadelphia has been one of the difficult teams to read the entire season. They’ve beaten teams like the Jets and Patriots whom have winning records, but got embarrassed by both Tampa Bay and Detroit. While Buffalo sits in the middle of the road themselves, I believe they have all the pieces to lay another shellacking down. Buffalo is entering this game as one of the premier rushing attacks in the league, they are averaging 140.9 yards per game this season, 4th highest in the league. This should be an area of concern for Eagles fans. Philadelphia is one of the worst defensive teams in the league at stopping the run. They’ve given up over an average of 164 yards per game in the last three weeks, 30th in the league. With the Bills strength behind running the ball and the Eagles recent struggles in stopping the run – LeSean McCoy should impress this weekend. After all, he will be making his first return to Philadelphia since being traded in the off-season, and will definitely have a chip on his shoulder with something to prove. (pun intended)
Tyrod Taylor hasn’t been the saving grace Bills fans were looking for in a quarterback, but you can’t ignore the fact he’s been playing some pretty stellar football. In his last seven starts he hasn’t thrown a single interception, breaking a record set by Drew Bledsoe 2002 for most consecutive passes without an interception in Bills history. On top of that, the guy has six touchdown passes in his last two weeks. He’s been on fire and extremely cautious with the ball – two things that will easily win you victory against this Eagles team. Philadelphia has lived or died by the turnover this season. They’re tied for the 2nd most takeaways in the league this season with 23, and if those turnovers don’t come this weekend, then they’re surely going to lose this game. Unfortunately for Eagles fans, Buffalo is one of the best offensive teams in the league at securing the football – they’ve turned the ball over only 14 times all season (8th fewest).
TRENDS
BUFFALO
- 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five road games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 8-3-1 against the spread after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in December
PHILADELPHIA
- 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games as a home underdog
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 4-16-1 against the spread in their last 21 games after allowing over 350 total yards in their previous game
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against Buffalo
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – BILLS 27 – EAGLES 21
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3) VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Cincinnati Bengals (10-2) return home this weekend to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) in Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati has won two straight and are looking to improve to 5-0 against divisional rivals this season. As for the Steelers, they aim to win two straight for the fourth time this season, and get revenge for their 16-10 loss in week seven against Cincinnati. Oddsmakers have listed the home-town Bengals as 3-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 49.5 points.
A lot has changed since the last time these two teams squared off, and Cincinnati should be wary. Since facing one another in week eight the Steelers have gone 3-1 – but more importantly are the highest scoring team in the NFL across that stretch. Since getting Ben Roethlisburgher back into the lineup Pittsburgh has been on fire. They enter this weekend averaging nearly 36 points per game and haven’t been held under 30 points across that same stretch. Nobody has had an answer to slowing down their passing attack and I’m skeptical that Cincinnati is completely capable of accomplishing -they have been struggling on third-downs the last couple weeks. Entering this weekend the Bengals are allowing teams to convert over 44% (22nd in the league). If they don’t tighten that number up for this matchup Pittsburgh could give them a licking. Antonio Brown, Maitavius Bryant and Marcus Wheaton; these guys have all had big games this season and any of them can hurt you for long receptions. While we shouldn’t ignore the fact Pittsburgh been converting over 47% of third down attempts in their last three games, (5th best) and Roethlisburgher has been averaging over 8.1 yards per passing completion this season (2nd best). Yet, I feel like the most alarming statistic is the Steelers are averaging 414 yards passing in their last three games. Thats ONLY passing yards, not accounting for any of their rushing yards. Good enough for over 100 yards more than the next best team in the league throughout the last three weeks.
Pittsburgh has lost back-to-back games against Cincinnati only twice in the last 11 years. While Cincinnati has proven this season that they’re a force to be reckoned with, Pittsburgh is in a must win situation and should pull out all the stops to capture a win this weekend. With Tyler Eifert likely to be out again this weekend due to a neck injury, Dalton will once again be without his favourite target. This should also allow Pittsburgh to key on other weapons in the Bengals offense. 3-points is exactly where the line should be placed, but I would encourage you invested gamblers to tease it to 3.5-points. This game could easily turn into a nail biter.
TRENDS
CINCINNATI
- 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games in week 14
- 6-18 against the spread versus Pittsburgh since 1992
- 26-60 straight up against a team with a winning record since 1992
PITTSBURGH
- 8-1 against the spread in December games the last three seasons
- 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 road games versus a team with a winning home record
- 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
LOOT VALUE – 700
FINAL SCORE – BENGALS 28 – STEELERS 32
OAKLAND RAIDERS VS DENVER BRONCOS (-6.5)
The Oakland Raiders (5-7) aim to jump back into the playoff race when they travel into Denver this weekend to take on the Broncos (10-2). Oakland has been sliding since week 8, they’re losers of 4 of their last 5 games and desperately need to win this weekend to keep playoff hopes alive. As for Denver, they’ve won three straight games and aim to clinch the AFC West division this weekend with a victory and a Kansas City loss. Oddsmakers have made the Broncos 6.5-point home favourites for the second divisional matchup between these teams this season, with a total set of 43.5 points.
Didn’t think I’d ever say this, but without Peyton Manning in the Broncos lineup Denver’s offensive play has actually improved. Brock Oswieler earned his third straight victory and I’m expecting him to easily chalk up another one this weekend. Oakland has been slipping down the standings and have displayed major defensive struggles in the last five weeks. Entering this weekend their passing defense is 28th, giving up over 270 yards per game. This has caused them to slip down the average points per game standings – they’re now allowing teams to score an average of 26 points per game (27th). While some of you could argue Denver isn’t the highest scoring team, I like to think they have all the necessary weapons in place to run up the score. In the last three weeks they’ve been outscoring opponents by an average of 7 points per game. Oakland should be thirsty to get revenge for the loss they suffered in week five against Denver, but playing in Mile High Stadium during December is never easy. Especially for a team that is used to playing on the sunshine coast. These two teams squared off last December in Denver and the Broncos smashed Oakland 47-14. The way Oakland has been sliding, a similar result wouldn’t surprise me.
Derek Carr will be heavily relied upon to lead Oakland to victory this weekend. But given his recent struggles and the Broncos tough secondary – I just don’t see it happening. Carr had a promising start to the season but has found quick sand the last few weeks – quick sand which I’m attributing to poor offensive line play. In the first 8 games of the season Carr was sacked only 10 times and threw 4 interceptions. But in the last four games his offensive line has allowed him to be sacked a total of 8 times, and he’s thrown 5 total interceptions. With Denver playing at home, bolstering one of the best pass rushing defensive teams in the league, and entering tied for 2nd most turnovers in the league – everything points towards the Broncos winning. It’ll take a perfect performance by Oakland to compete in this game – and that just doesn’t seem feasible.
TRENDS
OAKLAND
1-11 against the spread in their last 12 games in week 12
1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games versus divisional opponents
28-52 against the spread in the last 4 weeks of the regular season the last three years
DENVER
11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games in December
12-4 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
4-0 against the spread versus Oakland the last three seasons
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – RAIDERS 9 – BRONCOS 31
DALLAS COWBOYS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)
The Dallas Cowboys (4-8) aim to keep their playoff hopes alive when they enter Lambeau this weekend to take on the Packers (8-4). The Cowboys have been ravaged by injures this season but still sit only a game back in the hunt for the NFC East title. If they have any hopes of keeping their post-season hopes alive, they desperately need a win this weekend. As for the Packers, they’ve been stumbling themselves the last couple weeks. Erase the Hail Mary touchdown that won them the game against Detroit last week and the Packers would be 1-5 in their last 6 games. Despite both of these teams playing poor, oddsmakers are listing the Packers as 6.5-point home favourites, with a total set of 42.5 points for this game.
While neither of these teams has been specular during the 2nd half of regular season, Green Bay is in the best position to win this game and cover the spread. The Packers will have had over 10 days to rest and prepare for this matchup. The last time they suited up was Thursday night against the Lions. They pulled out the most unlikely victory in that game, and usually when things like that happen they carry over into the next game. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they’re next in line and are playing on a shortened week of rest playing on Monday night. Look for fatigue to become a factor for the Cowboys in this game and for Rodgers to dismantle the secondary as he pleases.
Green Bay started out the season playing great defensively. After six weeks they were a top 5 defensive team, holding opposing teams to an average of 17 points per game. But since returning from their bye week the world has began crumbling around them. They’re allowing nearly 23 points per game, and are 2-4. Luckily, they welcome the Dallas Cowboys offense to town this weekend, and boy is it terrible. The Cowboys enter this game one of five teams in the league averaging less than 20 points per game – and their redzone scoring percentage of 31.25% on the road this season ranks them 30th overall. This team hasn’t been able to solve the most simplistic of defensive teams this year and Matt Cassel is expected to be at the helm again this weekend. Cassel has posted a 1-5 record as the starting quarterback, has only one game with a quarterback rating above 65, and is averaging the lowest yards per completion out of all current starting quarterbacks (6.3 yards). Green Bay should have no troubles shaking his confidence and the crowd should complete the rest. Look for the Packers to remind us this weekend why they should have been in last years Superbowl.
TRENDS
DALLAS
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread win
- 1-5 against the spread when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game
- 0-2 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record this season
- 3-10-2 against the spread in their last 15 games in week 14
GREEN BAY
- 18-8 against the spread in their last 26 games in December
- 17-8-1 against the spread in their last 26 games as a home favourite
- 56-32 against the spread in the last four weeks of the regular season since 1992