We’ve officially reached the forth quarter of the regular season. Only four weeks of football remain, and several things have yet to be decided. Most importantly – will I continue to sand-bag my regular season record with terrible predictions? Last weekend my picks finished 2-2 yet again. Philadelphia got crushed by Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, while the Giants lost to the Redskins chalking up my two losses. While the Vikings and Chargers both covered as I expected. Heading into the final quarter of the season I’m looking at a 20-24-1 record. One perfect weekend and I’ll be right back to .500. But before I jump ahead into the teams I guarantee, yes.. guarantee will win this weekend. Here’s a recap of some action from last week, and what we can anticipate moving forward.
- Carolina remains the last undefeated team in the league. Snow and the Broncos defense got the best of Tom Brady and the Patriots on Sunday night. I don’t think anyone saw this one coming entering the season. With a five game lead in the NFC South, a victory this weekend would clinch the Panthers a playoff position.
- As briefly mentioned the Lions mopped the floor with the Eagles. Stafford made Philadelphia’s secondary look terrible passing for 5 touchdowns, and Chip Kelly officially has two feet out the door. No way this guy returns to coach Philadelphia next season. On an interesting note there’s speculation that the Titans are interested in him. I’m thinking because he coached Marcus Mariota at Tennessee, but the 1st round draft pick that the Eagles are asking for his services seem a little steep for a coach.
- Tony Romo anyone? The man re-fractured the collar-bone that just finished healing and has officially been played on season ending IR. After a promising 11-5 season last year, the Cowboys look to miss out on the playoffs this season. Nobody in Dallas can be happy right now – especially Jerry Jones. He’s gotta feel worst than a crippled crickets ass.
- Chicago defeated Green Bay at Lambeau for the first time since 1991, Aaron Rodgers was 8 years old. Bad things are happening in Green Bay right now and with every week that passes more and more problems seem to become exposed. Rodgers hasn’t looked like himself and their run game has become non-existent the last couple weeks. With Minnesota knocking off Atlanta the Packers are officially in second place of the NFC North and if they continue to slump could risk missing out on the playoffs all together.
- Kansas City won their 5th straight game. They are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and if the playoffs started tomorrow would face the Colts in the wildcard round. Wouldn’t everyone love to see that rematch? Two years ago the Chiefs took a 31-point third quarter lead and then Andrew Luck took the game over and lead the largest comeback in NFL playoff history. A rematch would be epic.
- Cincinnati defeated St. Louis 31-7 but ultimately lost due to injuries. Jeremey Hill, Vontaze Burfict and Tyler Eifert all went down with injuries. These are three of the most critical players on the Bengals roster and if any of them miss extended time if could hurt their Super Bowl chances. Not a good weekend for Cincinnati fans.
- With a victory over the Giants, Washington has put themselves in a wildcard spot. If Kurt Cousins can hold it together down the stretch this team has a serious shot at clinching the NFC East. They face the Cowboys two times in the next four weeks, and couldn’t be happier Romo won’t be in the starting lineup. I’m just about ready to say – Redskins fans, punch your tickets because you’re playoff bound, but anyone and everyone has at one point or another shot themselves in the foot in the NFC East this season.
BALTIMORE RAVENS VS MIAMI DOLHPINS (-4)
The Baltimore Ravens (4-7) look to win their third straight game when they enter Miami this weekend to take on the Dolphins (4-7). This marks the third season in a row these teams square off at Sun Life Stadium. Baltimore will be looking to duplicate both of the previous performances, they are a perfect 2-0 against the Dolphins since 2013. While Miami will be looking to simply get the monkey off their back, they’ve lost two straight outings. Oddsmakers have listed the Ravens as 4-point underdogs for this week thirteen matchup, with a total set of 43.5 points.
Miami hasn’t defeated Baltimore since 2007. It’s been five straight victories by the Ravens, but I’m expecting that streak to come to an end this weekend. The Dolphins have hit a rough patch and this is the perfect spot for them to turn things around. The Ravens are ravaged with injuries and Matt Schuab will be making only his second start at quarterback for Baltimore – with less than five days rest, and travel all the way from Cleveland. In the last three seasons teams have passed around Schuab like a hand grenade. He’s been in Houston, Oakland and now Baltimore – the reason behind this? His numbers have been less than mediocre. Since 2013 his completion percentage is barely above 60% and his touchdown to interception ratio is 0.66%. Miami is getting tossed a bone this weekend and their secondary should be licking their chops by the end of this game. Multiple interceptions should be happening on Sunday.
Since exploding for 44-points in week seven the Dolphins have scored over 20 points only twice in the last five weeks. Their offense has hit a deep trench and that’s the last thing you want to see mid-season. Luckily, Baltimore has struggled in stopping everything and everyone this season. Entering this weekend they’re allowing 25.1 points per game; (24th) teams to covert 41.6% of the time on third-down, (24th) and have forced the third fewest turnovers in the entire league (9). Look for the Dolphins to establish a run game early and open up passing lanes for Ryan Tannenhill to have a big afternoon. Miami wins big and Ndamukong Suh reminds everyone why the Dolphins paid him a pretty penny in the off-season.
TRENDS
BALTIMORE
- 1-7-1 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
- 2-7-2 against the spread in their last 11 games overall
- 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games in December
MIAMI
- 2-1 against the spread as a favourite between 3.5-9 points this season
- 2-1 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses this season
- 78-36 straight up as a favourite between 3.5-9 points since 1992
LOOT VALUE – 700
FINAL SCORE – RAVENS 23 – DOLPHINS 30
DENVER BRONCOS (-4) VS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The San Diego Chargers (3-8) return home this weekend to take on the Denver Broncos (9-2) in Qualcomm Stadium. This marks the first of two games between these divisional rivals in the next five weeks. With a victory, Denver would surely punch their ticket into the post-season. While the Chargers are simply trying to win back-to-back games for the first time all season. Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as 4-point road favourites for this game, with a total set of 43-points expected.
All hail Brock Osweiler. Okay, maybe thats a little much. But the kid is 2-0 in his first two starts as the Broncos starting quarterback and become only the second rookie to defeat a Bill Belichick Patriots team. While his number weren’t exactly eye popping on Sunday, he got the job done and should easily lead the Broncos to a third-straight victory against a much easier Chargers team this weekend. I’ve been high on San Diego for much of this season expecting them to bounce back, but it’s time to face the facts – this team is banged up bad, and have struggled extensively on defense this season. Entering this weekend they are allowing an average of 27.9 points per game (30th), over 400 total yards in each of their last three outings. They haven’t been able to stop anyone this season and it doesn’t even matter who started under the opposing centre. The Chargers are one of five teams allowing an average quarterback rating over 100 to the opposition this season. Brock Osweiler might not be Peyton Manning, but there’s no saying he couldn’t be the next best pocket passer in the NFL with his size. The Chargers secondary is going to be his easiest opponent yet, and I’m banking on the Broncos easily winning this road game by more than 4-points.
Philip Rivers is fresh off a 300 yard 4 touchdown performance. He tore apart the Jaguars secondary but this weekend won’t be so easy. Denver enters this game one of the toughest defensive teams in the league, and numbers prove it. They are the only team in the league allowing fewer than 300 yards of total offense per game, and sit 4th giving up an average of 18.8 points per game this season. Neither of these statistics can be comforting if you’re a Chargers fan. San Diego is 0-8 in games when they score fewer than 30 points and Philip Rivers passes for fewer than 300 yards this season. Rivers has worked magic in December in the past but this Broncos team is just too tough an opponent on both ends of the football. Take the buck’n Broncos with confidence this weekend.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 5-2 against the spread in games when they are favourites between 3.5-7 points the last three seasons
- 11-4 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
- 5-1 against the spread after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
SAN DIEGO
- 0-5 against the spread after scoring over 30 points in their previous game
- 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 home games versus teams with winning records
- 0-8 against the spread in their last 8 games versus divisional opponents
LOOT VALUE – 850
FINAL SCORE – BRONCOS 31 – CHARGERS 10
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Oakland Raiders (5-6) return home this weekend to host division rivals Kansas City (6-5) at the O.co Coliseum. They’ll be looking to win back-to-back games for the third time this season, and bridge the gap in a tight AFC West race. As for Kansas City, they’re arguably the hottest team in the league right now. They’ve strung together five consecutive wins and sit in a wildcard position. Very impressive considering their 1-5 start. Oddsmakers have listed the Chiefs as 3-point road favourites for this divisional matchup, with a total set of 44-points.
This game arguably has bigger implications than any other game this weekend. If Oakland wins at home they would pull into a tie with Kansas City for the final wild-card position, but a loss would mean a two game swing and lead by Kansas City. While Raiders fans can smell the playoffs for the first time in a very long time, I’m looking for Kansas City to dominate the Raiders this weekend. The Chiefs could be labelled as the best defensive team in the league through the last five weeks. After allowing opponents to score 20 or more points in their first four games, the Chiefs have held opponents under 15 points in four of their last five games. Nobody has been able to penetrate their tough secondary and I’m not expecting Oakland to find all that much success either. In their last three games Oakland has been averaging merely 17 points per game, (24th) and 73 yards rushing (27th). With these averages you expect Derek Carr to be heavily relied up on this matchup, and that doesn’t strike me as overly comforting. Simply put, only Arizona (15) and Carolina (18) have more interceptions than Kansas City this season (14).
Kansas City has caught fire offensively in the last couple weeks. They’ve scored 30 or more points in three of the last four weeks and their running game has been unstoppable. They are averaging 139 yards per game (5th) in the last three weeks – terrible news for Raiders fans. Oakland has had major struggles this season stopping the run. They’re giving up over 138 yards rushing in their last three games, 29th most in the league. All arrow(head)s point toward the Chiefs winning this game on Sunday. Alex Smith hasn’t thrown an interception since late September and Kansas City has Oaklands number – winning three of the last four meetings.
TRENDS
KANSAS CITY
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games versus a team with a losing record
- 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as a road favourite
OAKLAND
- 5-12-1 against the spread in their last 18 games following a straight up win
- 16-35-1 against the spread in their last 52 games in December
- 6-18-2 against the spread in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3 points
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 26 – RAIDERS 17
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-6.5) VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The New Orleans Saints (4-7) return home this weekend after a two game road trip to take on the undefeated Carolina Panthers (11-0). These divisional rivals are no-strangers, and the Saints will be looking to be the first team this season to hand Carolina a loss. While the Panthers look to continue their perfect season by winning back-to-back road games and their third straight against the Saints. Oddsmakers have listed Carolina as 6.5-point road favourites for this divisional matchup, with a total set of 50-points expected.
Carolina has been impressive on both sides of the ball this season, New Orleans? Not so much. They’ve struggled to put up points offensively this season but they’ve REALLY struggled on the defensive side of the ball. They enter this weekend the only team in the league allowing an average of 30-points per game this season and as tough as this may be to believe – they seem to be getting worse. In their last three games opponents have earned an average of 451 total yards per game. No, you didn’t read misread that. Four-hundred and fifty-one yards per game. Those three games you ask? They were against Washington, Tennessee and Houston. Three offensive scheme’s with mediocre quarterbacks at best – and now they’re tasked with slowing down MVP calibre Cam Newton.
Firing Rob Ryan was the first step to improving their defense but I’m not expecting the Saints to be able to slow down the Panthers one bit. Newton is solidifying his ballot for MVP this season and has scored a rushing touchdown in all but three games this season. Given the Saints are 30th in the league allowing 134 rushing yards per game, and have allowed 4 more touchdowns than any other team this year – Carolina should blow the doors off in this one.
New Orleans has kept themselves in games this season by putting up points. They are 4-1 in games this season when scoring 26-points or more, and 0-6 in all other games – which is terrible news for Saints fans. Carolina is one of the best defensive teams in the league this season. They’ve given up over 25 points only twice this season and are ranked 3rd best holding opponents to an average of 18 points per game this season. Nobody has found success in dismantling the Panthers secondary this season, and I’m not looking for Drew Brees to become the first. Brees has thrown an interception in each of his last five games and posted only one game with a quarterback rating above 90 along that same stretch. At the rate which Carolina is shutting down team this season and collecting interceptions, (1st in the league with 18) New Orleans is in trouble. This game should be decided before half-time.
TRENDS
CAROLINA
- 25-11-1 against the spread in their last 37 games in December
- 4-0 against the spread after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game
- 79-43 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record this season since 1992
NEW ORLEANS
- 2-8 against the spread in weeks 10-13 the last three seasons
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following an against the spread loss
- 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of 14-points or more