Its been an interesting season. Through nine weeks of the regular season, thats all I’ve got. Who could have predicted that the Carolina Panthers would enter the second half of the season nearly Super Bowl Favourites? Or after are 12-4 season, the Cowboys would be 2-6 this year. How about San Diego being the worst team in the AFC West, and the Raiders sitting in second place? It’s been difficult through the first half to predict who will win any given week, and my record exemplifies that. Entering week ten I sit at 15-17-1 on the year. With a 11-10 record in games with a loot value higher than .750. I went 2-2 again this last weekend with New England and Philadelphia covering, while Atlanta and Green Bay lost. Before I jump ahead to who I like this weekend, here’s a recap of last weekends action.
- Cincinnati moved to 8-0 on Thursday night defeating the Browns in Cleveland. A 14-point fourth quarter really put the game away for the Bengals. Its time we start seriously considering this team as a Super Bowl contender and Andy Dalton as an MVP candidate.
- Green Bay lost back-to-back games for the first time since 2010. Tempers flared on the sideline as the final seconds ticked off the clock and Eddie Lacey went down with another injury. Lets get it straight, the Packers play their best football at home, on the road the is a different story.
- New England defeated Washington 27-10. The score finished much closer than the actual story of this matchup. The Patriots controlled the ball the entire game. They had possession for a total of 37 minutes, nearly three full quarters. New England looks plenty capable of running the table this season, but the loss of Deon Lewis to injury definitely leaves a sting.
- Minnesota defeated St. Louis in overtime and jumped into a tie for first place in the NFC North with the Packers. Only problem is Teddy Bridgewater was hit unconscious on a slide late in the third quarter of the game, and it is unknown how much time he will miss. With Green Bay and Minnesota slated to play two games between week 11 and 17, it’s detrimental Teddy gets back in the lineup.
- Pittsburgh defeated Oakland 38-35 but lost Ben Roethlisburger to a high ankle sprain late in the game. Its going to be difficult for the Steelers to clinch a play-off spot going forward without their starting quarterback and running back. Although there is room for optimism, they play the Browns this weekend.
- Atlanta lost to the 49ers. This was an embarrassing loss considering Blane Gabbert started for San Francisco, and Levi’s stadium was less than two-thirds full. The Falcons could easily go on a losing steak here facing the Colts and Vikings the next two weeks.
- Indianapolis defeated Denver in the biggest upset of the weekend. Aqib Talib got busted eye-gouging the opponent in the final minutes. Not only is this seriously unsportsmanlike, but he is likely earning himself a suspension with the play. If this turns out to be the case Denver’s defense just got a little easier to play against in the coming weeks.
CHICAGO BEARS VS ST. LOUIS RAMS (-6.5)
The St. Louis Rams (4-4) welcome the Chicago Bears (3-6) into the Edward Jones Dome this weekend. St. Louis needs a win this weekend to avoid losing two straight against NFC North opponents, and sliding to far in their divisional standings. As for the Bears, they are hoping to build momentum off their Monday night victory in Chicago and win back-to-back games for the first time all season. Oddsmakers have listed the Rams as 6.5-point home favourites for this conference matchup, with a total set of 42.5 points expected between these two.
You would have to be crazy to take Chicago in this situation. 7-points is not nearly enough and here’s why – Chicago just played on Monday night in San Diego. A trip from San Diego to St. Louis is a little over 1800 miles and a two time-zone difference. Humour me with trying to argue that this doesn’t make a difference; come kick-off on Sunday the Bears will have less than five days rest between games. Secondly, they are facing one of the best front four and defensive teams in the entire league. St. Louis is 3rd in the league allowing only 288 total yards per game at home this year, and 1st recording an average of 4.5 sacks per game in their home stadium. They have been striking fear into quarterbacks all season long and we’ve all seen what Jay Cutler is capable given the right amount of pressure. A touchdown isn’t big for the Bears in this spot, they should be closer to 10-point dogs.
Since Todd Gurley stepped on the field the Rams rushing attack has exploded. Last weekend in Minnesota was the first time Gurley was held under 100 yards and failed to bust a run for 48-yards or more in five straight weeks (Minnesota has 7th best rushing defense at home giving up 86.2 yards per game). Expect a bounce back performance this weekend against a battered and weak Bears defense. Chicago is allowing 4.8 yards per carry (27th) and over 127 rushing yards per game (24th) this season. Protecting against the run hasn’t been their strong suit this season, and the Rams style of football should fully expose that this weekend. They enter this game averaging 4.9 yards per carry. (2nd)
Chicago is 3-6 on the season but they could easily be 0-9. Their three victories this season have come by 3-points or less in each game. They won against Oakland by two-points, Kansas City by one-point, and most recently the Chargers by 3. It hasn’t been pretty for the Bears this season and given the Rams record at home you’d be crazy to bet on them. St. Louis is 3-1 in all home games this season and won their last two home games by an average of 19.5-points, while holding opponents to 6-points in both contests. Lets all place money on the Rams this weekend, because there isn’t the slightest chance Chicago competes in this situation.
TRENDS
CHICAGO
- 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games following a straight up win
- 2-8-1 against the spread after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
- 18-38-1 against the spread in their last 57 games after allowing 250 yards passing or more in their previous game
ST. LOUIS
- 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games following a straight up loss
- 6-2 against the spread versus teams with losing records
- 5-2 against the spread in weeks 10-13 the last three seasons
LOOT VALUE – 850
FINAL SCORE – BEARS 10 – RAMS 28
DALLAS COWBOYS (+1.5) VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) are set to take on the Dallas Cowboys (2-6) at Raymond James Stadium this weekend. Dallas desperately needs a win this weekend to avoid falling completely out of the playoff race in the NFC East. Since Tony Romo has gone down they are 0-6. As for Tampa Bay, they host an NFC East opponent for a second straight weekend and are trying to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time this season. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Buccaneers as 1.5-point home favourites with a total set of 43-points expected.
Dallas is in a do-or-die situation this weekend and should snag a win this weekend. Tampa Bay is in the basement of the NFC South and arguably the easiest opponent the Cowboys have played in the last month. Not to mention the Buccaneers are downright atrocious at home in recent history. Since 2010 the Buccaneers are 14-30 at home, worst in the entire NFL.
Jameis Winston is a reason for hope in many Buccaneers fans. He is the future of this franchise but I haven’t been overly impressed with his performance through the first half of the season. He hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards in a single game yet this season and is 0-3 against defensive teams inside the top-10 for passing yards allowed per game. With the Cowboys limiting opposing quarterbacks to an average of 240-passing yards per game, (10th) and around one passing touchdown per game, (3rd) Winston looks to have his work cut out for him this weekend.
Two keys to a Cowboys victory – 4th quarter defense and time of possession. Dallas has been one of the worst defensive team in the league this season during the 4th quarter. They have blown multiple leads late in games and are allowing an average of 9.2 points per game in the final 15 minutes this season (29th). Luckily that should improve this weekend. Tampa Bay is one of the worst offensive teams in the league at scoring late. Entering this game they are scoring an average of 4.4-points per game in the 4th (29th). If they can keep it together late then time of possession should win Dallas this game.
The Cowboys offense is on the field for a league best average of 34 minutes per game. Their offensive line has been just as dominate as last season, they just haven’t had the quality quarterback behind center to lead meaningful drives. With Darren McFadden picking up the slack the last couple weeks and Dez Bryant now having two weeks of playing time under his belt the Cowboys should keep the chains moving again this weekend. If thats the case then Tampa Bay is in trouble – they haven’t come from behind to win a game all season.
TRENDS
DALLAS
- 9-3 against the spread in games played on grass the last three seasons
- 6-3 against the spread as road underdogs of 3-points or less the last three seasons
- 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games after allowing 350 yards or more in there previous game
TAMPA BAY
- 3-6 against the spread as a favourite the last three seasons
- 7-21 against the spread in their last 28 home games versus opponents with losing records
- 16-38-1 against the spread in their last 55 home games
LOOT VALUE – 700
FINAL SCORE – COWBOYS 24 – BUCCANEERS 20
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-5.5) VS TENNESSEE TITANS
The Tennessee Titans (2-6) aim to win back-to-back games for the first time this season when they host Carolina (8-0) at LP Field this weekend. Interim head coach Mike Mularkey did a great job last weekend leading Tennessee to only their second win all season, but Carolina is on a whole new level. The Panthers are one of the three remaining undefeated teams in the league this season and are already 2-0 against AFC South opponents to date. Oddsmakers have listed the Panthers as 5.5-point road favourites for this game, with a total set of 43-points expected.
Tennessee did a great job last weekend hanging around with New Orleans but to accomplish that same feat this weekend should be nearly impossible. Carolina is arguably the best defensive team in the entire league away from home. They enter this weekend giving up an average of 18.3 points per game. (2nd) While recording 3.8 turnovers (2nd) and 3.7 sacks per game (2nd) all on the road. Marcus Mariota has an extremely bright future in this league but I firmly believe the offensive line and team surrounding him isn’t capable of defeating this extremely deep Panthers roster. Carolina has already faced 1st overall pick Jameis Winston this season and were able to sack him twice and force 4 interceptions. Mariota might not have quite the same outing, but I fully expect him to throw at least one interception into the hands of defenders this weekend.
Two keys to victory for Carolina in this matchup – activate a solid ground game, and strike fear in Mariota. Both are things I believe are extremely attainable this weekend for the Panthers. They enter this matchup the best ground and pound team in the league. Through nine weeks Carolina is averaging over 142 rushing yards per game (1st), while Cam Newton is easily the best quarterback in the league when calling his own number. With 37 rushing touchdowns he has already established himself as one of the best rushing quarterbacks of all time. If the Panthers get the ground game going early, they could run away with this game (literally). The second key to victory is pressuring Mariota in the pocket. He could easily evolve into the running/read-option quarterback that Newton is today, but his inexperience and weak offensive line should be showcased in this game. Tennessee has allowed Mariota to get sacked 28 times already this season (4th most) and hit 61 times (4th most). If Carolina breaks through and applies the heat early on this rookie, turnovers should come easy.
TRENDS
CAROLINA
- 50-25 against the spread since 1992 when playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the regular season
- 6-2 against the spread after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
- 17-8 against the spread in their last 25 road games versus a team with a losing record
TENNESSEE
- 8-21-1 against the spread in their last 30 games after scoring 30-points or more in their previous game
- 6-20-1 against the spread in their last 27 games following an against the spread win
- 7-19 against the spread the last three seasons with playing with 6 days of rest or less
LOOT VALUE – 700
FINAL SCORE – PANTHERS 24 – TITANS 16
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-11) VS DETROIT LIONS
The Detroit Lions (1-7) head north this weekend to take on the Green Bay Packers (6-2) at Lambeau Field. Detroit has had two full weeks of rest since they last played in London against the Chiefs. They are aiming to win their first game since week six. While the Packers who are skidding themselves after losing two straight, can take solstice in the fact both those losses came against undefeated teams at the time. While they haven’t surrendered a loss against Detroit in Wisconsin in 24 straight attempts. Oddsmakers are expecting a blow-out for this divisional matchup, with the Packers listed as 11-point home favourites with a total set of 47.5 points.
Detroit has had nearly 14 days to prepare for this game, but that still isn’t enough. Their defense is in absolute shambles and statistically speaking are one of the worst in the entire league this year. Entering Lambeau this weekend they are allowing a league worst average 30.6 points per game, 8.7 yards per passing attempt, and 3 red-zone touchdowns per game. Finding solstice anywhere on this Lions defense this season has been extremely difficult. With the Packers losers of two straight I’m expecting they come out hungry for a victory this weekend. If Kansas City can put up 45-points against this Lions defense, then the Packers could very well put up 60.
Green Bay has struggled defensively the last two weeks. This was represented when Ha-Ha Clinton Dix and Julius Peppers got into a scuffle at the end of the game in Carolina. Its never a good sign when teammates are arguing over who made the mistake, but it also exhibits just what this defense expects of one another. Either way, they have to be happy returning to Wisconsin. Green Bay is one of the most ferocious defensive teams in the league at home. They are allowing teams to score nearly 5 fewer points against them at home, and recording over two more total sacks. Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews will be two very important keys to victory here and I expect them to tear apart the Lions offensive line. Detroit has had issues establishing a run game this season, and protecting Matthew Stafford from pressure. They are 27th in the league averaging 3.7 yards per carry, and 10th allowing 22 sacks of Stafford.
In order for the Lions to keep this game remotely close they’ll have to establish a run game, and I just don’t see that happening. Joique Bell, Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdulla, it doesn’t matter who carry’s the rock in this game. Nobody has been impressive this season and the Lions 2 total rushing touchdowns this season exemplifies that. There is currently 29 players this season that have more rushing touchdowns than the Lions entire offense… embarrassing. In order to beat this Packers team they have to keep Rodgers off the field and run the clock. A solid run game is the game plan for that, and the Lions just don’t have the pieces to execute.
TRENDS
DETRIOT
- 1-7 against the spread in all games this season
- 11-25-1 against the spread in their last 37 games in November
- 5-17 against the spread in Green Bay since 1992
GREEN BAY
- 27-12-1 against the spread in their last 40 games as a favourite
- 39-17 against the spread in their last 46 games versus divisional opponents
- 34-16-2 against the spread in their last 52 games as a home favourite
LOOT VALUE – 850
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 17 – PACKERS 34