Last weekend favourites finished a combined 11-3 straight up in games, and 7-7 against the spread. The Raiders, Saints and Jaguars were the only three to pull of upset victories – thats if you count London England as a road game for Jacksonville. While my weekly predictions finished questionable yet again (2-2), yet another .500 weekend. St. Louis took the lead early and never looked back earning my first win of the day – followed by some poor coaching decisions that lead to a Falcons victory, but an against the spread loss for my books. Finally, the Jets covered back-door against the Patriots and the Chargers forget to show up for the game all together getting smashed by Oakland. Entering this weekend my predictions are 12-12-1 on the year and 9-6 in games which I assign a loot value of .750 or higher. Honestly, I’m beginning to think a monkey or baby or baby monkey could make more accurate picks. Time to turn a new leaf and get back into my winning ways. But first, here’s some stuff that happened in week seven incase you missed out.
- Seattle pounded San Francisco at home and confirmed with everyone how bad the 49ers are. Again, I’m not convinced the Seahawks are championship calibre this season.
- Rex Ryan is wishing he had Tim Tebow at quarterback. They lost in London against a poor Jaguars team and back-up E.J Manuel managed to give Jacksonville 14-points in a matter of two plays. With such high pre-season expectations, its been a disappointing season for the Bills at this point.
- Miami took at 41-0 half-time lead against the Texans. They absolutely dominated Houston but the major take away should be how big a difference interim head coach Dan Campbell has made in his first two games. The Dolphins have scored 82-points in the last two weeks. Thats 17 more points than what they scored in their previous four games combined under Joe Philbin.
- Andrew Luck continues to disappoint and the AFC South is looking like the worst division in football ever. No, not a typo – EVER. Through seven weeks they combine for a 7-19 record. At this rate not a single team will eclipse 8 wins.
- Atlanta snuck out at 10-7 victory in Tennessee but I’m not convinced their 6-1 record is a reflection of this team. They have had an easy schedule to this point in the season and out of 9 games remaining they play only two with winning records. Should be interesting to see where this team sits in December.
- New York hung around against the Patriots for about 45-minutes. Thats about how long they decided to guard Gronskowski for. He blew up recording 52-yards and a touchdown in the 4th quarter.
- Kirk Cousins orchestrated the largest comeback victory in Washington history. After trailing by 24-points they came all the way back to win 31-30 in the final seconds of the game.
- The NFC East is in shambles. Dallas lost their 4-straight game without Romo and Dez in the lineup. The Giants officially sit in first place in the division while Chip Kelly is inching himself that much closer to coaching back at the college level after the Eagles fell to 3-4. Things have no shaken up the way many predicted at this point for this division.
DETROIT LIONS (+5.5) VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Detroit Lions (1-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (2-5) are set to square off this weekend in London England. Detroit is still aiming for their second win of the season and are pulling up the rear in a tough NFC North division. As for the Chiefs, they haven’t been much better with a 2-5 record but things are looking up. Kansas City is 5-1 in their last six games against Detroit. For this weekend in London oddsmakers have listed the “hometown” Chiefs as 5.5-point favourites, with a total set of 45.5 points.
5.5-points is just too many points. Neither of these teams has been fantastic this season but Detroit stacks up perfectly to give Kansas City a run for their money this weekend. The Chiefs have struggled to move the ball on offense since Jamal Charles went down to injury two weeks ago, and their passing defence hasn’t be able to stop even the weakest of quarterbacks this season. Entering this weekend Kansas City is allowing opposing quarterbacks to record over 12-yards per passing completion (30th), and over 2 passing touchdowns per game (30th). It has been an area of weakness for this team all season long, and I’m looking for Matthew Stafford to expose that weakness this weekend.
Only Houston and San Diego are attempting more passing plays per game this season. Detroit has been playing from behind for much of this season. But I don’t expect that to become the case this weekend because they have all the necessary offensive weapons to light up the Chiefs like a christmas tree. Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate are two of the best deep threats in the entire league, while Eric Ebron is having a breakout season at the tight end position. Look for Matthew Stafford to connect with all three of these guys often in London, and enjoy his best performance this season. Kansas City is only the 2nd opponent Detroit has faced all season with a passing defense ranked outside the top ten in the league (26th). Look for Stafford and this Lions teams to build confidence and earn a win this weekend just before entering their bye week.
- 8-0 off double-digit straight up loss versus opponents off a straight up win in weeks 5-8
- 9-6 straight up when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
- 2-1 against the spread off a loss against a divisional rival the last three seasons
KANSAS CITY
- 1-5 against the spread in their last six games overall
- 0-3 against the spread versus NFC North divisional opponents the last three seasons
- 0-3 against the spread in non-conference games this season
- 2-7 before facing the Broncos
LOOT VALUE – 700
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 17 – CHIEFS 14
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+1.5) VS CHICAGO BEARS
The Minnesota Vikings (4-2) and Chicago Bears (2-4) meet for the first time this season this weekend. Chicago will aim to duplicate last years result of a 21-13 win when they hosted Minnesota. While the Vikings are in the thick of it and with another win would solidify themselves as a possible playoff contender this year. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Vikings as 1.5-point road underdogs for this divisional matchup, with a total set of 42.5 points.
Expectations were high for the Vikings this season, and so far they have silenced any critics. But it isn’t the offense that has led this team, its been their defensive play. Rounding out the first half of the season Minnesota is limiting opponents to 17-points per game (3rd), 338 total yards per game (6th), and a 44% red-zone scoring percentage (4th). With numbers like this, Bears fans should be worried. Jay Culter has struggled when facing these divisional foes the last three seasons. In his last five starts he has seven interceptions and is 0-2 when scoring less than 20-points across that same span.
Chicago has found success this season in outscoring opponents, not by playing good defense. Their defense sits dead-last in the league allowing nearly 30 points per game. They haven’t been able to stop the worst offensive teams this season, and it just so happens that Adrian Peterson has been their worst nightmare the last couple seasons. Since 2012 Peterson has ran for more yards against Chicago than any other team in the league. He has ran for 573 total yards, an average of 143 yards per game. With Chicago entering this matchup allowing over 4.5-yards per rushing attempt (25th) and 124 yards per game (25th). Look for Peterson to blow up this defense once again on Sunday.
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 5-0 against the spread in their last five games following a straight up win
- 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 games overall
- 5-0 against the spread in the second of back-to-back road games
- 9-2 against the spread off a divisional game the last three seasons
CHICAGO
- 7-18-1 against the spread in their last 26 home games
- 5-15-1 against the spread after allowing more than 350-total yards in their previous game
- 1-5 against the spread as a home underdog of 3-points or less the last three seasons
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 28 – BEARS 20
NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS
The New York Jets (5-2) travel west this weekend to take on the Oakland Raiders (3-3) in the Coliseum. New York is looking to rebound from only their second loss all season long. While the Raiders will aim to win back-to-back games for the second time this season. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Jets as 2.5-point road favourites, with a total set of 44-points.
Oakland is quietly having their best season since 2011. With a 3-3 record it marks the first time since 2011 the Raiders have been at or above .500 since the 2011 season. Embarrassing they’ve been that bad for nearly five years. All I can say is cherish this moment Raiders fans, because following this weekend you’ll be back below .500. Oakland earned victories this season largely due to their offense. Of the three games they won this season they scored an average of 33-points per game. The three games they lost? Only 14-points per game. With the Jets entering this game giving up merely 17.5-points per game this season (4th) and winning every game in which they hold opponents to 20 points or less – Oakland’s chances of winning look bleak.
Remember that time Geno Smith was supposed to quarterback the Jets then he went and got himself punched in the mouth? Well, he’s been cleared for football activities this week but him taking the starting job from Ryan Fitzpatrick is about as likely as Oakland winning the Superbowl this year. Fitzpatrick was given the opportunity to lead this team and he has done nothing short of that through seven weeks. Entering this weekend Fitzpatrick is averaging nearly two passing touchdowns per game and 7.0 yards per completion. The 7-yards per completion puts him ahead of Cam Newton, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Eli Manning this season. All credible and respected quarterbacks in this league. With Oakland allowing a league worst 300 passing yards per game Fitzpatrick should be relied upon in this matchup, look for him to have his best game yet and allow the Jets defense to sit back and put this game to bed. Expect the Jets to get back in the win column this weekend.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 road games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 4-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games
- 7-0-1 against the spread in their last 8 versus AFC opponents
OAKLAND
- 1-4 against the spread after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- 19-39-1 against the spread in their last 49 games following an against the spread win
- 5-18-2 against the spread in their last 25 home games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points
LOOT VALUE – 850
FINAL SCORE – JETS 25 – RAIDERS 16
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) VS DENVER BRONCOS
The Green Bay Packers (6-0) travel west this weekend to take on the Denver Broncos (6-0) in mile high stadium. This will surely be the game of the weekend with neither of these teams suffering a loss yet this season. We have to go way back to 2007 for the last time these teams met in Denver. The game went into overtime tied 13-13, then Brett Favre threw an 82-yard touchdown pass to Greg Jennings to put the game on ice. Those two won’t be playing this weekend, but I’m expecting yet another nail-biter of a game. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Broncos as 3-point underdogs for this matchup, with a total set of 45.5 points.
Denver is arguably the best defensive team in the league. Green Bay is arguably the best offensive team in the league. The kicker? Aaron Rodgers. He is once again the best player in the entire league and in todays day and age I’ll take a strong offense over a strong defense any day. Rodgers is the quarterback that can avoid the pressure and pick-up first downs with his legs. But also knows when to sit back in the pocket and let the play unfold. He has the Packers beating opponents by an average of 10-points per game this season, and sits only behind Andy Dalton in average quarterback rating this season (115.6). Denver might slow down Rodgers but they sure as hell aren’t going to the stop the production. The Broncos has narrowly squeaked out wins in their last three games and they faced the likes of Teddy Bridgewater, David Carr and Josh McCown. I’m not saying none of these guys are good quarterbacks, but Aaron Rodgers is in a totally different relm. We will be reminded of that this weekend.
Looking at the total opposite sit of the ball here – Denver’s offense has been extremely disappointing this season, while Green Bay’s defense has been one of the biggest surprises. The Packers are actually limiting opponents to a league low of 16.8-points per game this season. On top of this they sit behind only Denver earning nearly 4-sacks per game, and are 12th against the pass giving up 236-yards per outing. If these statistics aren’t terrifying for Broncos fans, then I don’t know what is. I love Peyton Manning – can’t say enough about how incredible a career the guy has had, but this season he has been a hot pile. He is averaging a league worst 72.5 passer rating and has thrown three more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (7). Denver’s defense can only carry them for so long and so far. A six game win streak is impressive, but I think that streak ends this weekend for them. Bet on the Packers with confidence this weekend.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 years following a bye week
- 9-4 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
- 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as a road favourite
DENVER
- 8-12 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
- 2-4 against the spread versus Green Bay since 1992
- 7-18 against the spread versus NFC North opponents since 1992