NFL FUTURES 2015: SIT BACK AND LET IT RIDE
No longer is football in the rear-view mirror. September is approaching quickly and with that comes a brand new season of future betting options. For those of you who didn’t follow my predictions last August, I finished with a 1-2 record.
I predicted Aaron Rodgers would be labelled MVP, and surely enough he had one of the best seasons anyone has seen in recent years by a quarterback. All I can say is; I hope some of you were able to invest and snag the 7/1 odds Vegas was paying before the season, because it paid off handsomely.
As for my other two predictions; Dez Bryant to lead the league in touchdowns, and the Chicago Bears to win over 8.5 games, they both faltered. Although it should be noted that Dez was 15/1 to score the most touchdowns, and was tied with Marshawn Lynch at 14 entering the final weekend of the season. Of course, Lynch scored two in week sixteen and took home the title.
What about Chicago you ask? Well, all I can say is I don’t think anyone predicted their season to turn out the way it did. But, enough about what happened last year, here are a couple future wagers I’ve got my eye set on for this season.
HIGHEST SCORING TEAM – REGULAR SEASON
THE SURE BET – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 8/1 (ODDS:BET365)
Some of you might be scratching your head with this one, but I really like Chip Kelly and this Eagles team this season. Kelly is a offensive mastermind, he had Philadelphia averaging over 70 plays per game last season and finished only 12 points behind the league leading Packers, and 8-points behind the Broncos in total points scored last season.
While they did let Jeremy Maclin go in the off-season, I believe the addition of Demarco Murray and Ryan Mathews far outweighs the loss. Demarco led the league in rushing last season. While Mathews versatility and passing catching abilities far outweigh the injury risk he brings.
Oh, and did I mention Darren Sproles? This triple threat will be constantly rotating and only will the freshest legs see the field. Don’t be shocked when Philadelphia scores more points than any other team this season.
Still not convinced? Take a look at their schedule. Eight of their sixteen games this season are against opponents that allowed 25 or more points last season. Or finished 22nd or worse in points allowed per game overall.
THE LONG SHOT – NEW YORK GIANTS 34/1 (ODDS:BET365)
Yet another NFC East team. New York might not look like much but consider this, only Denver, New England, and Dallas averaged more points per game in the last three games of 2014.
The often overlooked Manning brother really found his stride. While Odell Beckham Junior is already being touted as the best receiver in the league and nobody can argue that. Everyone saw “the catch”, not to mention the kid averaged 140 yards per game in his last six games.
Considering Victor Cruz will be returning from injury, and they added ex-Patriots running back Shane Vereen in the off-season, the Giants could become an offensive powerhouse. They are entering their second full season operating under a west-coast style offense, and analysts have been raving that Eli Manning has never looked better. Expect vast improvements on the offense this season. Heck, with odds like 67/1 it wouldn’t hurt to place a flyer on this team.
MOST PASSING YARDS – REGULAR SEASON
THE SURE BET – ANDREW LUCK 4.5/1 (ODDS:BET365)
Andrew Luck is going to explode this season. He improved his yards per game from 248 to nearly 300 between the 2013 and 2014 seasons, and I’m expecting we see that number jump yet again. Not to mention Indianapolis indulged this off-season adding several offensive weapons making Luck only that much more equipped.
Luck has spent his first three seasons turning a team full of unknown offensive players into house-hold names. This man can work magic with mud, and I can’t wait to see what he is capable of doing with proven star-studed players. Plus, how can we forget that he was on a torrent pace to break Peyton Manning’s most passing yards in a season record last year. In the Colts first ten games only once was Luck held under 300 yards.
Had he not cooled off down the stretch, (failing to record over 200 passing yards in his last three starts) Luck could have ran away with this. I’ve already got all my marbles in the pot on this one. I’m expecting a big year from Luck this year, you should too.
THE LONG SHOT – ELI MANNING 15/1 (ODDS:BET365)
Say what? Eli Manning to pass for the most yards in 2015? Seems ludicrous does it? Well it might, until you begin to look at the direction the Giants were heading at the end of last season.
In their last three games Manning averaged 351 passing yards per game, over 50 yards more than the next best quarterback. For goodness gracious, Eli finished with more passing yards than Aaron Rodgers last season. With the Giants suffering serious blowouts last season and Jason P.P blowing up his hand in the off-season, I have a feeling Eli could be heaving it up an awful lot this season.
It’s just a matter of whether those passes turn in completions, or he continues to build on the 14 interceptions last season. Either way, taking a gamble on what many consider the paltry Manning brother to lead the league in passing yards looks worthy of consideration.
MOST RECEIVING YARDS – REGULAR SEASON
THE SURE BET – JULIO JONES 7.5/1 (ODDS:BET365)
Julio Jones looks like a great option to lead the league in receiving yards this season. He is entering the final year of his contract, and has bolstered to the media about losing five pounds in the off-season arguing “it’s added another gear to my speed”. Now, lets not forget he ran a 4.39 in the 40, and is already one of the fastest players in the league.
Julio is one of the best deep threats in the NFL. Last season we witnessed him catch 31 passes of 20 yards or longer. Thats six more than second best deep threat (Demaryius Thomas). This, all while battling a hip injury most of the way down the stretch. If he can stay healthy this year, Matt Ryan will be looking his way plenty.
Last season Atlanta attempted less passing attempts than only New Orleans, and Indianapolis. If that trend continues Jones will see plenty of targets. A year long wager like this volume is always more valuable, and with Jones’s athletic ability, any completion can turn into a touchdown.
THE LONG SHOT – TY HILTON – 17/1 (ODDS:BET365)
TY has bettered his receiving total in each of his first three seasons. He eclipsed 800 yards his first season, 1000 his second season, and 1300 his third season. With the Colts adding Andre Johnson in the off-season, it should take some heat and coverage off Hilton. I’m thinking this will only open things up and give him the opportunity to step into the elite receiver category this season.
With Hilton entering the final year of his contract, and it recently being publicized he is upset over the Colts drafting wide receiver Philip Dorsett in the first round. I’m expecting he will be out to prove his worth, and with an all-star quarterback like Andrew Luck passing him the ball, the sky is the limit.
Don’t be shocked if Hilton is atop the leaderboard in receiving yards come January 2016.
MOST RUSHING YARDS – REGULAR SEASON
THE SURE BET – ADRIAN PETERSON – 5/1 (ODDS:BET365)
It’s outrageous to think Peterson could break the lofty 2500 rushing yards he’s targeted this season. But winning this seasons rushing title is very much inside the lines. He sat out all but one game last season due to legal battles and suspensions, but whispers from training camp are that he has never looked better.
Last season without Peterson, Minnesota averaged 4.4 yards per carry. While this season Peterson looks to be once again their every-down back. If this becomes the case and Teddy Bridgewater continues his phenomial performance into the regular season, team’s won’t be able to stack the box against the run and Peterson should directly benefit.
Only two years removed from his historic 2,097-yard rushing season, Considering Peterson to lead the league in rushing seems very safe this upcoming season.
THE LONG SHOT – LESEAN MCCOY – 11/1 (ODDS:BET365)
LeSean McCoy is wearing Buffalo blue this season and I think he could become the first Bills running back since O.J Simpson to lead the league in rushing. McCoy had what many considered a “down year” last season, and he still finished with over 1,300 yards.
With this being his first season in Buffalo it might take a game or two to get settled in, but offensive coordinator Greg Roman is surely going to be dishing him the ball. Roman enters his first season in Buffalo, coming over from the San Francisco 49ers. In three of Roman’s last four seasons with the 49ers he lead them inside the top five teams in rushing attempts per game; and fourth or better in rushing yards per game.
With shady McCoy only 27 years old this season and Rex Ryan loving the ground and pound offense, McCoy looks poised to have yet another big season. None-the-less, putting a little wager on him to lead the league in rushing yards shouldn’t hurt at 11/1.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
THE SURE BET – ANDREW LUCK – 6.5/1 (ODDS:BET365)
Luck is entering his fourth full season in the NFL and has made massive improvement in every single season in the league. I’m expecting this season we see his best yet, and one good enough to earn MVP Honours.
Indianapolis went all out during the off-season bringing in talent for Luck to connect with. They lured Andre Johnson away from division rivals Houston to help give Ty Hilton more space in the secondary, while adding a reliable running back in Frank Gore whom hasn’t missed a single game in the last four years.
With all the incredible talent surrounding Luck this year looks to be a magical one. Outside of the depth the Colts added in the off-season to help Luck succeed, historical data also points towards this being his first MVP season. If you look at the last 45 players to win MVP honours for the first time, six of them were handed out to players finishing their fourth season in the league, (second most behind only fifth season).
21 of 45 players to win MVP in the last 45 seasons were aged between 24 and 27; and as it turns out Luck is 26 this September. Plus, we can’t ignore the fact that quarterbacks have won 19 more MVP’s than any other position in football. It’s beginning to look like a wager on Luck for MVP this season could be plenty worth the gamble.
THE LONG SHOT – RUSSELL WILSON – 15/1 (ODDS:BET365)
Russell Wilson to win MVP this season at 15/1, this looks juicy. With the off-season acquisition of Jimmy Graham at tight end, Wilson will finally have a legitimate receiving threat.
While we’ve become accustom to Seattle being a ground and pound team, I think they’re beginning to make that transition to a more balanced attack. Max Unger is one of the best centre’s in the league and they offered him up in the trade for Graham. Without a Pro Bowl center, I’m forecasting Wilson to bare much more burden in this offense and first hand we have all seen what he is capable of.
If Wilson continues to excel at this rate in his fourth season, and eclipses his previous touchdown totals, MVP talk should be on the table. Plus, Wilson much like Andrew Luck, is the ripe MVP age of 26 this season.
