As we head into Superbowl weekend there has been no shortage of talk and accusations. It was announced following the AFC Conference matchup that the New England Patriots were playing with deflated footballs to gain a slight offensive advantage. The story has been officially classifed as “Deflategate” following the Patriots “SpyGate” that happened a couple seasons ago. People are going as far to say the Patriots could have been doing this for a number of seasons and it could ultimately tarnish the Brady/Belichick legacy. All accusations aside, my predictions for the Conference Championship’s finished as perfect 2-0 for a second consecutive season. Here’s a little recap of what I liked, disliked, and admired from championship weekend.
PACKERS VS SEAHAWKS
This game will go down in the books as one of the best Conference Championship games ever. The Packers has this game in the bag for nearly the entire game and handed it over to the Seahawks with several final minute mishaps. The Seahawks comeback actually begin after Russell Wilson’s fourth interception of the afternoon. Morgan Burnett returned the ball a total of 4 yards to the Packers 43-yard line but the real kicker is he went down on his own. Burnett has endless space in front of himself and could have returned the ball 25-yards or more untouched. Had he made that choice the Packers possession most likely would have ended in at least a long field goal, not a punt, and increased the margin to 22-7. Following that the Seahawks gained all momentum and Wilson led the Seahawks to only their second touchdown of the afternoon. But with under 4 minutes left and no timeouts left their chances of victory still seemed very distant. Well, the Packers failed to recover the onside kick and the rest is pretty much history. Wilson orchestrated another touchdown and completed the most ridiculous 20-yard two point conversion ever to secure their first lead of the day. With all the pieces falling into place, and Rodgers seemingly unaware that Richard Sherman had his elbow dislocated early in the second half, Seattle somehow won this game. Can’t say I’m surprised, but can say I’m a little disappointed. The money-line bet I laid on Green Bay would have padded the wallet nicely.
COLTS VS PATRIOTS
I’ve already mentioned “DeflateGate” and the Patriots once again being surrounded by controversy. But how can you not ask yourself this, had the Patriots been playing with “regulation” footballs would have it really made a 38-point difference? No, no it wouldn’t have. New England won this game because they were simply the better team and that was clearly seen on Sunday night. As I mentioned before, Andrew Luck is the future of NFL Superstar quarterbacks but his time isn’t just yet. It’s just to bad you couldn’t wager on him winning his first Superbowl sometime in the next five seasons, because I would bet every penny in my pocket on that. Everything aside, this game had nothing on Seahawks/Packers matchup, the Patriots ran away with it early. LeGarrate Blount had 30 carries for 147 yard and 3-touchdowns. After being cut by the Steelers mid-season he could prove to be their best pick-up all year, that is if he repeats with a similar performance during SuperBowl XLIV.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (PK)
ODDS: BET365
With “DeflateGate” stealing headlines the last two weeks and the NFL deciding to fine Marshawn Lynch yet again, this time for “crotch grabbing” (yet openly also trying to sell a picture of the gesture on the NFL.com) there has been no shortage of gossip heading into SuperBowl weekend. But enough about the controversies surrounding the big game, and lets look at where the money lies for the 49th Superbowl. Immediately following the Conference championships last weekend Vegas opened with the Seahawks as 3-point favourites for their bid for a second straight championship. Since that point the public has jumped all over the Patriots and in the last two weeks we have seen the line move to as much as Patriots by 1. While today it is currently settling on a pick ’em, even odds for both teams the same as picking a straight up winner. If the line rests at this point heading into Sunday it will be the first time ever a Superbowl is kicked off without a favourite or underdog being chosen.
The last time the Patriots played in the Superbowl Aaron Hernandez was catching passes from Tom Brady, while Rob Gronkowski took the back-seat failing to eclipse 30 yards or catch a touchdown. This time around Aaron Hernandez is riding the pine in prison while Gronkowski is undoubtedly Brady’s main target, and my key to the Patriots winning their fourth Superbowl ring in fifteen years. He is fresh off his first full healthy season since 2011 and while some teams found success covering him this season he has been unstoppable lately. In his last five outing’s he has a touchdown in every single game and has seen no less than eight targets in each of those outings. Expect Seattle’s game plan to start and finish with Gronkowski. He should see double coverage most of the afternoon and while the Legion of Boom contains some of the most fearsome defenders in the league, I’m looking for Brady to expose the weaknesses and get the better of the Seahawks secondary this weekend.
Anyone who watched the NFC Conference championship knows Earl Thomas (last years Superbowl MVP) will be hindered after a dislocated shoulder. This man makes his bank on big hits and interceptions. With a bummed shoulder it will hinder his ability to make those plays, and that will be visible this weekend. But the injuries don’t end there, Richard Sherman looked to have hyper-extended his elbow early in the second half last weekend also, and clearly babied his right arm for the remainder of the game. While the coaching staff has been downplaying the injuries the last two weeks and Sherman himself stated “I hope Tom Brady and the Patriots try to test his injured elbow”, all I can say is; they will. Belichick is a mastermind when it comes to creating the perfect matchup and despite both these players ensuring they can play through injury I know that anything below 100% might not be enough to better the Patriots offense. New England finished the season averaging over 23 first downs per game. If they put up anything close to that this weekend their offensive pass blockers will have plenty of time to test those injuries, and if thats the case then the 30-points per game they averaged this season should prove plenty to secure their first Superbowl in nearly five years.
Russell Wilson is coming off the absolute worst game of his career. While a rebound performance should be expected, I’m not sure the pieces are in place for him to secure a second straight championship. Not a single wide receiver on the roster finished with over 900 yards receiving this season and Marshawn Lynch caught more touchdown passes than every single one. While many of you could argue this isn’t a bad thing because Wilson and Lynch are all the weapons you need, I am a firm believer of – its not good having all your eggs in one basket; and that one basket for the Seahawks is their run game. Seattle’s run game accounted for exactly 50% of their scoring this season. Of forty total touchdowns twenty of them were on the ground. While those twenty touchdowns were four more than the next best rushing team in the league, New England has been solid in stopping the run all season. They allowed only six total rushing touchdowns all season, and allowed only three rushing plays of over 20 or more yards all season long, best in the entire league. Consider this, we all witnessed the success the Packers found spying on Wilson in the NFC Conference game, and how Lynch is ineffective in a game where Seattle trails by a reasonable margin. Seattle fans better hope Brady doesn’t blow the doors off because a substantial lead would prove deadly for a Seahawks team that relies heavily on ground support. Everything aside I’m expecting the Patriots jump into the drivers seat and galavant all the way to their fourth Superbowl championship under Tom Brady. The man is due for another Superbowl ring and there is no denying he should have that by now (if only Eli Manning hadn’t gone all Eli Manning on him twice!) If you’re still not convinced then wait until just before kick-off to place your bet. The Patriots are 3-1 in Superbowl games under Tom Brady in which they lose the opening coin toss.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- Returning Superbowl Champions are 0-5 against the spread and straight up as underdogs
- 9-17 straight up when playing with two weeks or more of rest since 1992
- 3-1 against the spread in non-conference games this season
- 8-3 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record this season
- 34-9 as a favourite the last three seasons
If you’re a believer that the Patriots are going to win this game then go ahead and place some bank on Brady taking home the MVP honours. It’s hard to envision anyone else taking home this hardware if New England secures victory and the fact it’s paying nearly 2.5-1 on this bet is a steal. It’s almost smarter to place big money on him to win MVP and avoid the Patriots straight up bet if you like New England to win this game.