NFL Divisional Playoff Picks 2014

AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND 

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) 


ODDS: BET365

The England Patriots (12-4) begin their bid for a third Superbowl Championship under Tom Brady this weekend when they welcome the Baltimore Ravens (11-6) into Gillette Stadium. With a victory this weekend the Patriots would stamp their ticket to a third straight AFC championship game. While the Ravens hope they can continue to become the Cinderella story of 2014 and defeat the Patriots in consecutive post-season appearances. Oddsmakers have listed New England as 7-point home favourites for this Saturday afternoon matchup with a total set of 47.5 points.

Tom Brady will extend his record for playoff games by a quarterback this weekend when he leads the Patriots into their 6th straight post-season appearance. He will undoubtedly go down in the history books as one of the most decorated players to ever play the quarterback position but I can’t help but question how the outcome of this game could tarnish his legacy. After winning his first ten playoff appearances Brady has lead the Patriots to a 8-8 record in the post-season and failed to capture that elusive fourth Superbowl ring. Which makes me wonder; could this be the season they accomplish that feat? While thats difficult to predict, they find themselves in perfect position with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and host the perfect opponent to advance this weekend. While Baltimore played stellar defense against the Steelers this past weekend, we should shift our focus away from how the Patriots offense will deal with a stellar front four and look at the success they’ve achieved on the defensive side of the ball this season. New England closed out the season allowing 344 total yards per game and really found their stride down the stretch. Since the beginning of December they haven’t allowed an opponent to score over 20 points and have become exceptional against the pass; looks like the money they spent on Darrelle Revis in the offseason is paying off. Facing a seasoned quarterback like Flacco Revis should have his hands full but you can’t ignore the success the surrounding cast has achieved since he stepped onto the field. The Patriots finished the regular season second overall with a +12 turnover differential, and enter this matchup averaging at least one takeaway per game at home this year. They have been tenacious against opposing quarterbacks all season and should have no problem atoning for the loss they suffered against the Ravens in the 2012 playoffs. That was the only home game New England has lost in the post-season since 2010 and a repeat would be nothing short of a miracle. Just consider this, the Patriots finished the regular season 7-1 at home and since 2009 have a league best 48-7 record at Gillette stadium.

Baltimore enters this matchup playing great defensive football but I’m expecting they struggle to contain the Patriots offense this weekend. Their secondary played incredible last weekend against the Steelers but on the season they have allowed opponents to score an average of 24 points per game. With the Patriots posting a 9-0 record this season when scoring over 25 points and having already mopped the floor with the AFC North Bengals 43-17 this season; the Ravens might struggle to keep this game close. Expect Brady to get the better of their secondary and the Patriots to not only get revenge for their 2012 loss against Baltimore, but advance to their fourth straight AFC conference title game.

TRENDS


BALTIMORE

• 2-4 against the spread as a road underdog of 3.5-7 points the last three seasons
• 1-4 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins this season
• 4-6 against the spread versus New England since 1992 

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+10.5) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 


ODDS: BET365 


The Seattle Seahawks (12-4) begin their bid for a second straight Superbowl Championship when they welcome the Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) into CenturyLink Field this weekend. The Seahawks have been unstoppable since the middle of November. They enter this matchup on an 7-game win streak and haven’t lost since November 16th in Kansas City. While the Carolina Panthers have been streaking themselves. They won their last four games to earn a post-season birth and defeated Seattle’s NFC West rival Arizona to earn a spot in the divisional round of the playoffs. Oddsmakers have listed the Seahawks as enormous 10.5-point favourites for this matchup with a total set of 39.5 points.

Not many teams have challenged the Seahawks the last couple seasons, but the Carolina Panthers organization dons that list. These two have squared off three times in the regular season since 2012 and while Seattle cultivated victory all three, each of the games were decided by 5-points or less. The Panthers are no strangers to playing a close low-scoring defensive matchup, and given the way they have been playing in the last couple weeks it shouldn’t be a surprise I’m predicting yet another dog-fight. Carolina enters this game allowing only 12-points per game in their last five outings. They have given up only five touchdowns across that same span and limited the Cardinals to only 78 yards of total offense last weekend; the fewest yards allowed in a post-season football game ever. While the Seahawks offense is much more capable than Arizona’s, they’ll face a Carolina run defense that has been impenetrable the last couple weeks. Carolina has held opponents to an average of 58 yards rushing per game in their last three starts and with numbers like that should challenge Seattle’s game plan. With the Seahawks finishing the regular season as leaders in rushing play percentage putting the ball on the ground nearly 54% of their offensive snaps, there is no smoke and mirrors to how Seattle beats you. They ground and pound and smash you in the mouth, but given the Panthers recent success against the run I’m expecting a closer finish to this matchup than what several other analysts might. Four of the last five meetings between these two have been decided by 5-points or less. While they have combined to score an average of only 27 points across that same span. Look for this game to turn into yet another close low scoring affair.

Russell Wilson closed out the 2014 regular season absolutely shredding opponents. He finished the regular season averaging 217 passing yards and 53 rushing yards per game. Several teams were unable to contain him this season and while he should get a large pay raise in the off-season; he has not played well in his career against Carolina. In three career starts he has averaged only 18 yards rushing per game and scored zero rushing touchdowns. While through the air he has only three passing touchdowns while averaging an interception per game. If Carolina contains Wilson to the pocket this weekend their chance of securing victory surely increases. Seattle closed out the year 27th overall averaging just over 200 passing yards per game and Wilson failed to throw for more than two touchdowns in a single game this year. Given the history these two teams have together and the fact Carolina has lost every game in the last three years by five points or less, its only a matter of time until the Panthers get revenge. None the less, expect another bruising game between these two again this weekend.

TREND


CAROLINA

• 2-0 against the spread versus NFC West divisional opponents this season
• 11-2 against the spread revenging a loss against an opponent the last three seasons
• 12-3 straight up after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons 

DALLAS COWBOYS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6) 


ODDS: BET365 


The Green Bay Packers (12-4) are set to welcome the Dallas Cowboys (13-4) into Lambeau field during January for the first time since 1967, and a game that will be forever remember as the “ice bowl”. The Cowboys narrowly avoided defeat last weekend against the Lions (with a little help from the refs and Jerry Jones deep pockets) to make the divisional round of the playoffs for the first time since 2009. While the Packers find themselves hosting a playoff game for a third consecutive season and hope to improve on their divisional round playoff record of 0-2 since 2011. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as 6-point favourites on their home turf this weekend with a total set of 53 points.

With Aaron Rodgers expected to suit up this weekend despite a calf injury, not a bone in a body believes that Dallas has what it takes to beat the Packers even with a gimp Rodgers. Green Bay has been unstoppable at home all season. Rodgers finished the season averaging no less than three touchdowns per game at home and catapulted the Packers to the highest scoring team in the entire league at home, scoring nearly 40 points per game. Only one opponent was capable of holding the Packers under 30 points at home this season, and I highly doubt that this Cowboys team which finished the season 26th in the league against the pass is capable of accomplishing that same feat. While Dallas did have an extremely impressive year finishing 8-0 on the road, they simply don’t have the talent on the defensive side to shut down every playmaker this Packers offense contains. Eddie Lacey and Jordy Nelson are the only teammates in the entire league that finished inside the top ten players in total touchdowns this season; while Randell Cobb wasn’t far off finishing inside the top twenty. Rodgers has an arsenal of weapons at his disposal and despite an injury I don’t expect him to struggle running up the score again this weekend. This Packers balanced attack which averaged nearly 4.5 yards per carry on the ground and a league best 14 yards per completion at home this season is incomparable to any other opponent the Cowboys have faced this season. Expect that to be seen this weekend when they enter Lambeau for the first time since 2010.

This marks only the third time in NFL history an undefeated road team will square off against an undefeated home team. Much of the Cowboys success this season came through running the ball and I wouldn’t expect any different plan from them this weekend. However, I do see a fault in that plan.  The Packers enter this weekend allowing the 9th fewest rushing yards at home this season. This is largely because they are blowing other teams out which forces opposing offensive coordinators to abandon the run to come back. But here’s the catch twenty-two, the Packers have been playing great against the pass. In their last three games they have surrendered only 145 passing yards per game, second best in the league. Additionally, they enter this weekend averaging nearly an interception per game at home this season, and finished a league best +14 in turnover margin this season. While I don’t expect the Cowboys to lose 45-7 like their last time in Lambeau, I don’t expect them game to finish with a close total either. Don’t shy away from the Packers this weekend, they finished the season a league best 6-1-1 against the spread at home this season. Improving that record this weekend is nearly guaranteed.

TRENDS


DALLAS

• 1-2 against the spread as a road underdog of 3.5-7 points the last three seasons
• 2-5 against the spread versus NFC North divisional opponents the last three seasons
• 11-16 against the spread in January since 1992