With only two weeks left in the regular season the list of teams eliminated from the playoffs continues to grow. With St. Louis, Minnesota, and San Francisco being the newest additions following their week fifteen loses. As we look ahead to week sixteen only nine teams remain in the NFC jockeying for six playoffs spots, while the AFC is much more wide open with still twelve teams statistically having a shot at the post-season. Here’s a little recap of this past weekend and what it could mean moving forward;
- Arizona defeated St. Louis on Thursday evening and shattered all remaining playoff hopes for Rams fans. With the victory the Cardinals officially clinched a play-off berth but in doing so lost Drew Stanton to a right knee injury. Hosting Seattle this weekend could be the biggest game for Arizona all season. The Seahawks are nipping at their heals only a game back, and given the fact the Cardinals will suit their back-up-back-up quarterback, its hard not to like Seattle to back-door win the division in the final two weeks.
- Pittsburgh clinched a victory in Atlanta and handed the Falcons their third consecutive loss. The victory was detrimental to both teams but the Steelers grabbed the lead and never looked back. Heading into week sixteen every single team in the AFC North is within a playoff spot outside the Browns. Wouldn’t it be something if every single one of these teams could somehow hang on and float into the post-seaosn?
- New England dismantled all of Miami’s playoff hopes in a 41-13 shellacking. Tannenhill had nothing to solve the Patriots secondary and following a Bills victory the Dolphins season seems all but over.
- Andrew Luck clinched the AFC South division title for a second consecutive season following a 17-10 victory over Houston. Its hard not to like Indianapolis given how prolific their offense has been at times this season but they have glaring defensive issues and absolutely zero run game, an aspect that is over-shadowed due to Luck’s pure athleticism. Hosting anyone from the AFC North in the first round of the playoffs would be an extremely difficult matchup. Should be interesting to see who they host in the first round. Either way, I’m officially kicking myself for not placing big money on the Colts over win total of 9.5 this season.
- The Bengals spent pretty much all afternoon throwing up the money-sign to honour Johnny Manzeil. Browns coach Mike Pettine started Manziel and in doing so flushed the Browns play-off hopes down the drain as he threw up a goose-egg 30-0 in his first career start. Time for the Cleveland to start looking ahead to next season and which quarterback they are going to draft in the 2015 NFL Draft.
- After only throwing three interceptions all season the Buffalo Bills picked off Aaron Rodgers twice on Sunday. They clinched a much needed victory and handed the Packers only their fourth loss all season. Playing in Oakland this weekend and New England next, the Bills hold their playoff hopes in their hands and I couldn’t be riding behind them more to clinch one of those final spots.
- Seattle defeated the 49ers at CenturyLink 17-7 and officially eliminated them from playoff contention. Its already clear that Jim Harbaugh will no longer be in San Francisco to start next season but the better question is where will Colin Kaepernick be? After signing a monster contract in the off-season he flopped this season and has shown he might not be the answer. Expect major overhaul of the 49ers roster this summer.
- Dallas held off the Eagles 38-27 in Philadelphia to climb into soul possession of the NFC East lead. Win-out and the Cowboys make the playoffs. A task that could prove harder than some expect given they host the Colts this weekend and play in Washington next. Mind you, the Eagles don’t have it much easier playing the remainder of the season on the road in New York and Washington. Looking like the division winner could be decided in week seventeen making for a spectacular finish to the regular season. Either way, my pre-season predictions of Dez Bryant leading the league in touchdowns this season at 15/1 is looking mighty juicy. Entering their game this weekend he has 13 on the season and sits only one back of both Jamal Charles and Marshawn Lynch.
- Culter treated Chicago to yet another disappointing game on Monday night. He couldn’t get a single this going and was held scoreless at half-time against a Saints teams that sits outside the top 15 defensive teams in the league. Its hard to imagine the Bears won’t completely overhaul their roster this off-season and Cutler might be the first to go. He is an average quarterback being paid like an elite one. But the big take away from this game is the Saint re-take the NFC South division lead with a 6-8 record. It’s ugly but it might just work for them if they can defeat the Falcons this weekend.
AFC NORTH VS AFC SOUTH
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-5) VS HOUSTON TEXANS
ODDS: BET365
The Houston Texans (7-7) look to upset the Baltimore Ravens (9-5) play-off hopes this weekend when they welcome them into Lucas Oil stadium. It’s a must win situation for the Raven’s given they presently hold a playoff spot but have the Chiefs, Bills and Chargers all only sitting a game back. While Houston is looking to finish the regular season off on a positive note after missing the post-season for a second consecutive season. Oddsmakers have listed the Ravens as 5-point road favourites with a total set of 41.5 points.
Baltimore let me down last weekend, but I don’t expect them to disappoint this weekend. Houston lost starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for the remainder of the season with a broken leg last weekend. With the loss it has been announced either Case Keenum or Thad Lewis will get the nod this weekend. Given their combined inexperience and the Ravens defense entering this matchup third in the league with 45 sacks, whomever starts looks in line to spend much of the afternoon on his back. The substitute to the Texans quarterback situation will be for them to rely heavily on their run game, but they shouldn’t find much success in that area either. The Ravens have been one of the best teams in the league this season against the run, they enter this game giving up less than 70 yards per game on the ground in their last three and have given up only seven rushing touchdowns all season. With the Ravens entering this game on a two game road win streak, and the fact they have been clutch in games with playoff intentions the last couple seasons, Baltimore should have no problem cruising to a 5-point victory this weekend.
Fans have been mockingly chanting for J.J Watt to start at quarterback this weekend. While we all know that won’t happen, he is undeniably the biggest hurdle for the Ravens to overcome for this matchup. He enters this game having a career season but the Ravens offensive line will be his toughest match-up all season. The Ravens have allowed only 16 sacks and 42 quarterback hits this season, 2nd fewest in both these statistical categories this year. While Joe Flacco might not have legs like Russell Wilson, but he clearly has the offensive line in place to make check-downs and open up defensive secondaries. A task that shouldn’t prove to difficult this weekend facing a Texans team that is allowing the 27th most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
TRENDS
BALTIMORE
- 3-1 against the spread in games played on grass field this season
- 9-3 in their last three seasons as a favourite between 3.5-9.5 points
- 2-1 against the spread as a road favourite this season
- 5-8 against the spread off a divisional game the last three seasons
- 2-4 against the spread as an underdog this season
- 3-6 against the spread in the last four weeks of the regular season the last three years
Not many teams have been more disappointing than the Bears this season given their pre-season expectations. They will officially miss the playoffs for a second consecutive season. While hosting the division leading Lions this weekend, finishing the regular season with a 2-6 home record seems almost guaranteed. Entering this game they are averaging less than 20 points per game at home this season and will be without all-star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. This doesn’t look good considering they are facing a Lions defense that is the best in the league. Entering this game Detroit is 1st in the league giving up only 17 points per game, have held their past three opponents to under 300 total yards, and are limiting opponents to a league best 64 running yards per game. With Chicago struggling to find the end-zone this season Detroit looks like a shoe-in to win this game. The Bears have defeated only the 6-8 Vikings and 2-12 Buccaneers at home this season; every other game they have lost by a combined average of 11-points. While we can’t overlook the announcement on wednesday that Jay Cutler will be benched in favour of Jimmy Clausen. You know what I say to that? Gimmy all the Jimmy Clausen a man can buy, because you can bet your shirt that he isn’t solving this Lions secondary.
With a healthy Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate in the lineup this weekend, Detroit will have no problem exposing the Bears weak secondary. Through fourteen games Chicago has given up a league worst 33 passing touchdowns and are second only to Atlanta giving up 272 passing yards per game. They have been crippled with injuries and Matthew Stafford should expose their weaknesses once again this weekend. Don’t be surprised when this marks the 8th time this season Chicago has allowed over 30 points this season.
TRENDS
DETROIT
- 3-1 against the spread versus divisional opponents this season
- 5-0 against the spread versus Chicago the last three seasons
- 2-1 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival this season
- 3-11 against the spread in all home games the last two seasons
- 3-13 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
- 0-3 against the spread as a home underdog the last two seasons
ATLANTA FALCONS (+6) VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
- 10-2 as underdog of 3-points or more off a straight up loss
- 7-4 against the spread in December games the last three seasons
- 3-1 against the spread verus divisional opponents this season
- 1-4 against the spread as favourites between 3.5-9.5 points this season
- 2-5 against the spread in home games this season
- 2-11 against the spread as home favourites with revenge against divisional teams below .500
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7.5) VS ARIZONA CARDINALS
ODDS: BET365
The Cardinals (11-3) look to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs when they welcome division rivals Seattle (10-4) into Arizona this weekend. After starting 9-1 the Cardinals have gone a mediocre 2-2 in their last four games and desperately need a victory to stay atop the NFC West. While the Seahawks aim to play upset walking into this matchup a perfect 4-0 since week nine. Oddsmakers have listed red-hot Seattle as 7.5-point favourites for this matchup with a total set of 36 points for matchup.
The Cardinals have been one of the best defensive teams the NFL this season. But Seattle has had by far the best defense in the league the last couple weekends. In their last four games they have surrendered no more than 14 points and this weekend are likely to face inexperienced Ryan Lindley at quarterback for the Cardinals. Lindley should get his first NFL start with Drew Stanton suffering a knee injury last week and despite the Cardinals posting an impressive 11-3 record this season, facing the hottest defensive team in the league should expose glaring offensive weaknesses. Arizona started the season red hot scoring 20 or more points in eight of their first nine games, but since have eclipsed more than 15 points only once. Its no secret that they have been battling major injuries on the offensive side of the ball and you can only ride defensive and special teams for so long. This game has huge playoff implications and if Seattle can clinch a victory they will step into a tie for first place in the NFC West and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Given the circumstances and fact the Seahawks have won their last four games by an average of 13 points, winning this critical divisional matchup by 8 points or more looks like a absolute guarantee.
Arizona has been regressing since their week twelve matchup against Seattle. In their last three games they have been averaging a mere 4 third down conversions per game and have relied heavily on their defense to keep them in games. While the Seahawks don’t have the most potent offense in the league they are capable of producing long drives that put points on the board. They enter this game averaging nearly 32 minutes of possession on offense per game, displaying they simply grind down opposing defensive teams. With this being advertised as one of the marquee match-ups this weekend several people will be expecting a close game, I’m expecting the exact opposite. Seattle has been far to good in the past couple weeks and Arizona can only ride defensive prowess for so long. Look for Seattle to handle the Cardinals with ease and deliver a home loss to the division leaders. Very similar to what Arizona did in Seattle to the Seahawks at the end of last season.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 34-17 against the spread in all games the last three seasons
- 11-6 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
- 13-3 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the regular season the last three years
- 0-3 against the spread when the total is between 35.5-38 points the last three seasons
- 1-8 against the spread when above .500 at home with revenge versus divisional opponents
- 2-9 against the spread at home off back-to-back straight up against the spread wins