Week 14 NFL Picks 2014

• Detroit lit up Chicago 34-17 on Thanksgiving, making critics everywhere bit their tongues following speculation that Calvin Johnson is no longer be one of the leagues most elite receivers. He finished the day with 11 catches for 146 yard and two touchdowns. At least there is always next year for the Bears, but I can’t say the same for head coach Mark Trestman.
• Philadelphia handed Dallas their worst home loss all season 33-10. Mark Sanchez played arguably the best game of his professional career and I’m starting to question if Dallas is worse off with home-field advantage in the playoffs. They remain the only team in the league undefeated on the road this season.
• Seattle posted their second consecutive game holding opponents to three points. The back-to-back victories couldn’t have come at a better time and with a 8-4 record they now sit only a game back of Arizona for the NFC West division lead. Circle week seventeen Seattle at Arizona, it could decide who wins this division. 
• Ryan Fitzpatrick has the best game of his career against his former team. He completed 24 of 33 passes for 358 yards and 6 touchdowns against Tennessee. One of which landed in the hands of defensive end J.J Watt bringing his touchdown total up to 4 on the year. Its hard to argue that anyone has been more valuable than Watt to their team this season, but I just can’t see them handing the MVP award to anyone other than a quarterback. 
• St. Louis gave Oakland the goose egg treatment. They mashed the Raiders 52-0 and held the Raiders scoreless following their first victory of the season. 
• Philip Rivers lead the Chargers to a critical victory in Baltimore, handing the Ravens their first home loss of the season. With only 47 seconds left on the clock Rivers connected with Eddie Royal for the go-ahead touchdown and ultimate victory 34-33. If you ask me, this was revenge for the 4th and 29 that Baltimore converted in San Diego two years ago that won them the game and arguably the Lombardi trophy clinching a playoff spot with the victory. 
• Jonny Manziel saw his first real action this weekend Buffalo. After Brian Hoyer couldn’t solve the Bills defense, Manziel was handed the torch and lead the Browns to their first and only touchdown of the game. He couldn’t lead them to a comeback victory, but with both Pittsburgh and Baltimore also suffering losses, nobody is that much worse off in the AFC North following week thirteen. 
  
• Andrew Luck overcame an interception and a fumble in his first two drives to put up 49 points against Washington and win the Colts their 8th game of the season. Right now the AFC South is their division to lose, they have a two game lead and face both Tennessee and Houston in the coming weeks. 
• Aaron Rodgers continued his MVP season winning the Packers their forth straight game and handing the Patriots their first loss in eight weeks. If Green Bay can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs its tough to envision anyone beating them in Lambeau field they way they have been playing. 
• Arizona dropped their second straight game and officially opened the door for Seattle to take the NFC West. They lost in Atlanta 29-18 and couldn’t get anything going offensively. Without Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald in their offensive, its hard to envision the Cardinals making a push deep in the post-season this year. 

Wrapping up week thirteen by predictions finished a combined 3-1; bringing my record in November up to 12-4. The Lions, Bills and Packers all found ways to victory, while the Ravens turned out to be my only incorrect pick all weekend. Entering this weekend my record has improved to 30-21-1 on the year; I’m picking winners 58% of the time. Hopefully I can keep the ball rolling and earn all of you some good cash for the holidays on the horizon. Let’s take a look at some of the match-ups I like this weekend.

AFC SOUTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 

HOUSTON TEXANS (-5) VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 


ODDS: BET365

The Jaguars (2-10) look to get their first divisional win of the season when they welcome the Houston Texans (6-6) into Jacksonville this weekend. Houston enters this game fresh off their sixth win of the season, and desperately need to finish December undefeated if they hope to bid for a playoff spot. While the Jaguars aim to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. Oddsmakers have listed the Texans as 5-point road favourites for this matchup with a total set of 42.5 points. 

Blake Bortles has been the man under centre for Jacksonville since week four, but hasn’t exactly had a magical rookie season. Entering this week he leads the NFL with 15 interceptions and Houston should make his life extremely difficult this weekend. The Texans enter this game with 15 interceptions this season, and are tied for 3rd in the league with a +11 turnover margin on the year. Looks for J.J Watt to prove he deserves to be the highest paid defensive player in the league and apply enough fear to force a handful of turnovers this weekend. With Jacksonville losing games by an average of 16-points this season, Houston should have no problem cruising to at least a 5-point victory this weekend.

Eli Manning made Jacksonville look better than they actually are last weekend. The Giants blew a 17-point lead on route to giving the Jags their second victory of the season. If the Texans find themselves with a humungous lead,  don’t expect them to squander it. Houston enters this game 4th in the league giving up only 19-points per game and have one of the best road records in the league. After thirteen weeks they have a 4-2 record away from home, and sit a perfect 2-0 against the spread as road favourites. 

TRENDS 

HOUSTON 

• 4-1 against the spread as favourites in first of back-to-back road games
• 5-1 against the spread as a favourite this season
• 41-33 against the spread versus divisional opponents since 1992 

• 5-17 against the spread as road underdogs of 3.5-9.5 points the last three seasons
• 5-14 against the spread in all home games the last three seasons
• 2-10 as divisional underdogs off a straight up win versus an opponent with revenge

AFC SOUTH VS AFC NORTH 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS 

ODDS: BET365 

The Indianapolis Colts (8-4) look to extend their two game win streak when they enter Cleveland to take on the Browns (7-5) this weekend. Cleveland has lost their last four competitions against Indianapolis dating back to 1992. While the Colts are 1-1 against AFC North opponents this season. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Colts as 3.5-point favourites with a total of 49.5 for what should be a great matchup.

The Cleveland Browns hype train just exploded. With only four weeks remaining they desperately need to win-out to secure a playoff spot and I just can’t imagine them defeating the Colts this weekend. Indianapolis is one of the most prolific scoring teams in the league. While some of you could argue Cleveland has played fantastic defense this season, it should be noted they enter this game without one of their best defenders. Free safety Tashaun Gibson will miss his second consecutive game and leads the Browns defense with 6 interceptions this season. They are undoubtedly worse off without him and Andrew Luck should make that seen this weekend. The Colts enter the weekend averaging a league best 366 passing yards per game on the road, and coincidently are also the highest scoring team in the leave averaging 32-points per game. Looks to me like the Browns are in a perfect situation to drop back-to-back games for the first time all season. 

Josh Gordon has made an immediate impact since his return but he might not be on the field long enough to flash his talent this weekend. The Colts sit second in the league averaging nearly 33 minutes in time of possession per game. They are clock destroyers and with every minute Andrew Luck spends on the field, Gordon will be spending on the sideline. If the Browns defense can’t get off the field and hold the Colts to three and out’s, they won’t have much opportunity to get the ball Gordon’s hands. I’m looking for Indianapolis to capture the lead and never turn back. Cleveland relies heavily on a balanced attack and the way the Colts have scored points this season they probably won’t get the chance to do that this weekend. Expect Indianapolis to secure their 9th win this season and take one step closer to clinching the AFC South

TRENDS 

INDIANAPOLIS 

• 9-3 against the spread this season, best in the league
• 25-9 against the spread when playing with 6-days of rest or less the last three seasons
• 8-2 against the spread in December games the last three seasons 

• 0-4 against the spread versus AFC South opponents the last three seasons 
• 2-7 against the spread in December games the last three seasons 
• 17-62 straight up when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992 

FINAL SCORE – COLTS 37 – BROWNS 24




AFC WEST VS NFC WEST 






















KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1) VS ARIZONA CARDINALS 


ODDS: BET365 


The Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) hit the road this weekend to take on the Arizona Cardinals (9-3) at the University of Phoenix Stadium. Arizona is hoping that a return home will end their season worst two game losing streak. While the Chiefs find themselves in the same boat, they have dropped their last two games and risk falling outside the playoff picture with another loss this weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the Cardinals as 1-point favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 40.5-points.

Arizona has struggled offensively since Drew Stanton took over starting duties. They have scored only three offensive touchdowns since week eleven, and rightfully so have lost back-to-back games. Unfortunately for you Cardinals fans, it looks like they might hit rock bottom this weekend with Kansas City coming to town. The Chiefs pride themselves as one of the finest defensive teams in the league and enter this match-up with best secondary in all of football. Through thirteen weeks they are holding opposing quarterbacks to league best 196 passing yards per game, and have given up more than two passing touchdowns only once this season. It’s easy to see that the Chiefs are built to play with the lead. Their combined defense is allowing less than two touchdowns per game, and have allowed only one rushing score all season. Entering this game only the most elite offensive teams have been able to solve the Chiefs #1 ranked passing defense. Arizona no-where near a top-notch scoring team and with Andre Ellington’s status up in the air for this game, its easy to imagine a scenario where the Cardinals finish without another touchdown yet again this weekend.

Kansas City’s offense is averaging nearly 32 minutes in time of possession this season, ranking them amongst the best in the league at controlling the ball. With the Cardinal’s defense entering this matchup spending the 4th most time on the field the last three weeks, Alex Smith should have plenty of opportunity to work the clock in this matchup. Adding to the Cardinals already season-long two game losing streak, and keeping the Chiefs in 2014 post-season playoff talk.

TRENDS 

KANSAS CITY 

• 4-1 against the spread as a road favourite this season
• 20-7 against the spread versus NFC West opponents since 1992 
• 9-1 against the spread against NFC West opponents in their last ten games 

ARIZONA 

• 1-2 against the spread versus AFC West opponents this season
• 0-5 against the spread at home off a double-digit straight up versus opponents off a double digit straight up loss
• 1-5 straight up versus Kansas City since 1992