Indiana vs Michigan State NCAA 2013

#1 INDIANA HOOSIERS VS #3 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (-1.5)


Tonight at 7PM EST on ESPN one of the most important games all season long in college basketball will tip-off. The Michigan State Spartans (22-4) are aiming to win their 6th consecutive while staying undefeated at the Jack Breslin Student Events Centre this season. As for Indiana (23-3), they are looking for their first win at Michigan State since 1991, way back when Tom Izzo was only a 36 year old assistant coach. 


There is a very good chance that whoever wins this game tonight will capture the Big Ten conference. Both teams have identical 11-2 records in conference play this season, while only two weeks ago one of the Hoosiers victories came against this very Spartans team. Also marking the last time that Michigan State was defeated. I expect the Spartans to get revenge this time around and take a stranglehold of the Big Ten conference.

The Indiana Hoosiers have looked almost unstoppable this season. They are the nations 2nd highest scoring team averaging 82.9 points per game, and 51st defensively allowing only 61 points per game. There is no doubt they are ranked by the associated press as the #1 team for a reason, but this Hoosiers team simply is not the same team on the road. In their six games played on the road this season they are averaging only 76.6 points per game, six points less than their season average. They have not found the same scoring success they do on their home court, something I assure we will be seen tonight against a tough Michigan State defense.

The Spartans are not an amazing offensive team, but once again coach Izzo has a squad full of guys that have incredible basketball intelligence and the ability come together as a team. They currently sit 111th in the country averaging 70 points per game, but their real bread and butter lies on the back end. Once again Michigan State is amongst the nations elite defensive teams. They are 28th in the county giving up 59.1 points per game and are always in the face of the shooter limiting opponents too 38.8% from the field (26th). But what I find most impressive about this Spartans teams is their ability to tailor their play towards their opponents. For example they entered Wisconsin on January 22nd and beat the Badgers 49-47. This was against the best defense in the Big Ten and the only game this season where Wisconsin held an opponent under 50 points and lost. Then only a week later the Spartans invited Illinois to town and won 80-75, exposing the Illini’s second worst defense in the conference. It doesn’t matter whether you are the best defensive teams in the nation or the highest scoring, I guarantee almost every game against the Spartans will always finish close.

This game will be decided on whether Michigan State can contain Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo. Something I think the Spartans are most than capable of accomplishing, just look what they did to Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr of Michigan a week ago. They limited what people have labeled the best tandem in the nation too 20 points and 36% combined shooting. I expect for them to do the same tonight against Zeller and Oladipo. While it should only help them that Oladipo isn’t at 100%, he is listed on the injury report nursing a day-to-day ankle injury. As for the Spartans keep your eye on Junior guard Keith Appling, he leads Michigan State with 14.1 PPG and 4 APG. I expect him to have a great outing tonight with the home crowd backing him.

For those of you that don’t remember the Spartans were 2-point underdogs against the Wolverines last tuesday, a game they won in decisive fashion 75-52. While the Spartans won’t duplicate that performance against the Hoosiers, they will stay undefeated at home tonight. On route to taking sole possession of the Big Ten conference.

TRENDS 


INDIANA

• 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games playing Michigan State
• 3-5 against the spread playing a team with a winning record after 15+ games this season
• 44-136 straight up as an underdog since 1997