NFL Conference Playoff Picks 2012

Last week my predictions when 1-3 and I had my worst week since week 8 when my picks went a combined 0-4! To my defense many of those games could have gone either way. Atlanta was up big and should have covered the -2.5 but Seattle roared back; some could say the Falcons are lucky to simply win that game. The Green Bay defense made it look like a bunch of 12 year old pre-pubescent boys could run through them. While Houston got pumped once again at the hands of Tom Brady, while  what was the first game last weekend also ended up being the most exciting (Ravens/Broncos).

Overall I finished the 2012 regular season with a 38-26-3 record. Hitting 59% of my predictions, as for the playoffs I have not been doing so great. Through the Wildcard and Divisional round matchups I am 3-5, hoping this is the weekend I turn things around. Here is how I see the conference championships playing out.

NFC DIVISIONAL MATCHUP – 3PM EST SUNDAY

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (+4)

This game marks the first time in history that the Atlanta Falcons are hosting a conference finals in the Georgia Dome. For that reason, and several other I say take the home team and the points this weekend. 


I know that several people might say that Atlanta offensively isn’t that far off from Green Bay; so you say how will they succeed against a tough 49ers defense that we saw beat the Packers this weekend? Well, as much as Matt Ryan isn’t a household name like Aaron Rodgers, he has quietly tied together a fantastic season this year. He has a much better receiving corps than what the Packers have in White/Jones and personally I believe that the Seahawks defense Atlanta put up 30 against last weekend is better than that of the 49ers.  

As for the 49ers, it is impossible to ignore quarterback Kaepernick that everybody is in a craze for. He might have broke the rushing record last week, but I am yet to be convinced. We all know he can run the ball, and is capable of handing it off, but can he bring his team back if they are down big. He had a couple decent performances this season but failed to throw for over 300 yards and in my mind is just another new age quarterback that relies far to much on his legs. Something that I feel might hurt him in this game. For the reason that no team is better suited and prepared to play against this type of quarterback than the Falcons.

This season alone the Falcons faced Cam Newton (twice), Robert Griffen and Russell Wilson. All three of these guys are capable of, and often run the read option in their offense. They are relied upon to pick up the first downs. While Atlanta hasn’t been fantastic at shutting each of them down, they do have a combined 3-1 record this year against such quarterbacks, are 2-0 at home and no stranger to this type of spread. I feel like they will have a game plan to contain Kaepernick and force him into rookie errors. This defense finished the season with 20 interceptions (5th in the league) and are always at their best in the Georgia Dome. They forced Peyton into 3 interceptions this year and Drew Brees into 5 at home. Two of the most elite quarterbacks in the league, I can’t wait to see what they can accomplish against Kaepernick.

TRENDS


SAN FRANCISCO

• 2-5 against the spread this season after 2 or more consecutive wins 
• 1-4 against the spread in the conference championship game since 1992
• 6-16 straight up versus NFC South opponents since 1992
• 0-5 in their last 5 road playoff games