We are officially entering the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Last weekend my predictions went 2-2. I had Houston at -4.5 (won), Vikings at +8 (lost), Indianapolis at +7 (lost) and Seattle at -3 (won). Looking back at the results, every favourite was able to cover the spread. On the season my record has moved to 40-28-2, I am hitting 58% of my picks. Looking ahead I can’t wait to watch the games this weekend. It not only means we are one step closer to Superbowl weekend, but 3 of 4 games are rematches of regular season meetings. Without further a-du, here is the divisional round match ups and who I have my money on this weekend.
- 7-2 against the spread versus Denver since 1997
- 6-3 straight up in their last 9 games versus Denver
- 22-12 against the spread versus AFC west division opponents since 1992
- 0-2 against the spread when playing on saturday in their last 3 seasons
- 18-35-2 against the spread in their last 55 home games
NFC DIVISIONAL MATCHUP – 8pm EST Saturday
In the 2nd matchup this saturday I once again like the underdog to come out and avenge their embarrassing loss from earlier in the season. The Packers were absolutely dominated at home in their first game of the season by San Francisco. Although this time around the game is being played at Candlestick Park, I like the Packers to win and stamp their ticket into the NFC championship game.
No quarterback in the league has been better than Aaron Rodgers in the last couple weeks. He has this Packers offense heating up at the perfect time. In the last 4 games he is averaging a 119.65 passer rating, 2.75 touchdowns and a 68.6% completion percentage. He has been on fire, but it definitely helps that his complete receiving corps in finally healthy. I just don’t see how the 49ers corners can cover James Jones, Randle Cobb, Jordy Nelson AND Greg Jennings. These guys are all great receivers and the scariest part is that some would argue the worst receiver on this list (James Jones) lead the NFL in touchdown receptions this year with 14! I expect for Rodgers to have fire in his eye’s for revenge game.
Given all this we can’t ignore the fact that the 49ers had one of the best defenses in the league this year. They held opponents to an average of 17.1 points per game and might have the best front seven in the whole league. Aldon Smith was second in sacks this season at 19.5, while Justin Smith (probable) is one of the best tackles in the league. On that note, as much as this defense had played huge this year, I still like the Packers offense better. Rodgers will make his usual play calls and changes at the line of scrimmage, identifying the blitz, giving him time to find the open man before they can sack him.
The last matchup I really like about this game is Colin Kaepernick versus Green Bay’s defense. Not only do I enjoy the fact that he is playing his first playoff game ever, but the fact the Packers secondary is finally healthy. They welcomed Charles Woodson back last week who forced a fumble versus this same 49ers team in week 1. While cornerbacks Sam Shields and Casey Hayward have been playing terrific coverage the last couple weeks. Particularly Hayward who as a rookie finished the season tied 5th with 6 interceptions on the year.
If this game turns into a shootout (which I think it will) the 49ers will not have a chance. Kaepernick has thrown only 10 touchdowns in the 8 games he has played this season. Look for the Packers to get revenge in this one, sending 49ers fans home disappointed for a second consecutive season.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 6-2-2 against the spread in the last 10 games versus San Francisco
- 8-2 against the spread when playing on saturday since 1992
- 5-1 against the spread in playoff games the last 3 seasons
- 2-7 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival in the last 3 seasons
- 5-7 agains the spread versus conference opponents this season
- 0-1 against the spread following their bye week this season
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5)
This is the only matchup this weekend that isn’t a rematch of a 2012 regular season game. The last time these two teams met was 2011 in Seattle, Atlanta won 30-28, but the Seahawks covered the 6-point spread. Even with the fact Seattle enters this game winning 5 straight, I really like the Falcons at home to cover the 2.5 spread with a week of rest.
Most analysts can’t say enough about how good Russell Wilson has played this season and what he has done for this offense. There is no denying he has been playing great football the last couple weeks, leading them back from a 0-14 deficit against the Redskins last week. But I don’t see him doing that this weekend for a couple different reasons. Atlanta has played lights out at home all season long. They are 8-0 in the dome this season, beating some very good teams (Denver, Dallas, New Orleans, NY Giants). This team plays a completely different game when in the Georgia Dome and I expect no different of a result this weekend.
If Seattle wants to win this game it will have to be on the legs of Marshawn Lynch. He has been a major contributor to why the Seahawks are winning, rushing for at least 100 yards in his last 5 games. However this is something I don’t see him accomplishing this weekend. I like the Falcons defense to step up to the challenge and limit him on sunday. All I have read all week long is how terrible the Falcons have been against the rush. Yes, they have been less than spectacular but overall this defense is allowing an average of 16 points per game at home this season. While they aren’t bad at taking the ball away either, they finished 5th overall with 20 interceptions this season. Look for them to be ready for this challenge.
The most important matchup that will ultimately decide this game is the battle between Seattle’s cornerbacks (Richard Sherman & Brandon Browner) and Atlanta’s receivers (Julio Jones & Roddy White). Seattle fans could argue that they have the best cornerback tandem in the league, while Atlanta fans would say they have the best receiving tandem. But for this matchup I have to give the advantage to Atlanta for a couple different reasons. Firstly, Sherman and Browner are very very good cornerbacks but I don’t think they are the right type of corners to cover Jones and White. These guys are your typical mirror coverage guys. They don’t play the bump and run game at the line of scrimmage and that is the type of cornerback it takes to shut down these Falcons receivers and get them off their games. Secondly they didn’t do a fantastic job at shutting down Garcon and Moss last weekend. On the 11 targets combined these receivers saw, 7 were completions. Not to forget that Moss and Garcon aren’t even in the same class of receiver that both Roddy White and Julio Jones are. Expect for both these to light up the Seattle secondary and even if they are covered, Matt Ryan can always look to his soon to be hall-of-fame tight end Tony Gonzalez on the middle.
Seattle had to fly across the country to play Washington last week, fly home after, and now they fly back across the country to face the Falcons. You can’t tell me that all the travelling won’t effect this team. Although I would love to see a rematch between Green Bay and Seattle in the NFC championship just as much as everyone else. I just don’t see that happening. Put your pennies on Atlanta staying perfect at home this year.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 7-14 straight up in their last 21 games on the road
- 1-3 against the spread in dome games this season
- 3-1 straight up after a bye week in their last 3 seasons
- 6-3 against the spread as a home favourite of 3-points or less in the last 3 seasons
This game is the final rematch between teams that faced off in the regular season. The Patriots won the first matchup 42-14 in Gillette Stadium, they had it wrapped up going into half-time up 21-0. This time around I like the Texans to play a much better defensive game and keep it closer than what vegas odds makers have listed.
If Houston can limit the offensive turnovers and play solid defensively they will have a great shot at winning this game, returning them to the AFC championship game for a second consecutive season. The Patriots finished the season as the highest scoring team in the league averaging 34 points per game. While as much as Tom Brady is an elite quarterback and can be listed as the reason for this, many people overlook the fact that their young defense had a league high 41 takeaways this season. Meaning much of their points were scored at the helm of opponents turnovers. I expect Houston to do a great job taking care of the ball this time around, making the Patriots drive the length of the field in order to put points up. Houston turned the ball over only 17 times on offense this season, 2nd best to only the Patriots themselves (16).
When these teams met in the regular season it marked the first time all year J.J Watt was held without a tackle or sack for a loss, or a batted pass at the line of scrimmage. Look for him to play much better this time around now that he has an idea of how Brady operates, along with the rest of Houston’s defense. The 43 points they gave up to New England the first time around was the most points Houston allowed all season long. I assure you the defense remembers that and will be fired up for this rematch.
It will be key for Houston to establish their run game early before they fall too far behind. The Patriots finished the season 9th defensively allowing teams an average of 101.9 rushing yards per game. But I don’t expect them to accomplish that this weekend against the likes of Arian Foster. In games this season where Foster has 20 or more carries the Texans are 11-0 including last week against the Bengals. The number one priority should be getting this man the ball so Andre Johnson will have open space down field later on in the game if they need it.
As great as the Patriots defense has played this season they are still a young secondary. They gave up 503 yards to Baltimore, 438 to Buffalo and 41 points to the 49ers this season. This is a defense that lives for causing turnovers, something I just don’t see Houston doing in this game. This will be a close one right up until the final seconds of the game. Unfortunately for Texans fans I still think that the Patriots are winning this game for one simple reason. No man is more clutch in the final seconds of a football game than Tom Brady.
TRENDS
HOUSTON
- 10-2 against the spread when avenging a loss against an opponent the last 3 seasons
- 10-5 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons
- 5-0 against the spread in January games the last 3 seasons
- 0-4 against the spread when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest the last 3 seasons
- 1-3 against the spread in playoff games the last 3 seasons