BIG 12 CONFERENCE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
BAYLOR BEARS VS TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (+10.5)
This should be a great battle between two of the best programs in Texas. Texas Tech enters this matchup with a 8-4 overall record, going 3-0 most recently. As for Baylor they are fresh off a win against Texas and have an 9-4 record this season. These two teams are almost identical, with that being said the line has been set at -10.5 in favour of Baylor. For that reason I say take the home team Texas Tech and this large spread.
Texas Tech has lost to some less than spectacular basketball teams this season but I think they have now found their identity. They come into this game averaging 75.3 points per game and should be able to reach that total no problem. The Bears have had difficulties this year defensively, giving up 68.5 points per game, ranking them 216th in the country. Look for this to be a high scoring matchup with Baylor themselves scoring 78.4 points per game.
The key for the Red Raiders to keep this game close will be to shut down Pierre Jackson. This senior guard for Baylor is leading the Big 12 conference in scoring (19.9 PPG) and is second in assists (6.2 APG). If they can limit him, they can limit the Baylor offense since it all flows through this mans hands.
The matchup I am really focused on in this game is Texas Tech’s 2-point field goal percentage, versus Baylor’s defensive struggles in that area. The Red Raiders are an elite team when shooting 2-pointers, they rank 42nd in the nation hitting 59.1% of the time. While the Bears defense is 325th out of 347 teams in division 1 basketball, giving up a terrible 58.7% when opponents are shooting 2-pointers. This will be the game changer in this matchup. Texas Tech will undoubtedly cover this large spread at home but I still expect Baylor to sneak by with the victory.
TRENDS
BAYLOR
- 2-5 against the spread as a favourite this season
- 0-3 against the spread when scoring 80 points or more in the previous game
- 5-15 against the spread off a win against a conference rival in the last 3 seasons
TEXAS TECH
- 1-0 against the spread versus conference opponents this year
- 8-6 against the spread versus Baylor since 1997
- 10-5 straight up against Baylor since 1997
FINAL SCORE – BEARS 82 – RED RAIDERS 77