Week 14 is in the books we now enter the final stretch of games before wildcard and playoff positions can be decided. These coming weeks show us who the real contenders are, and who the pretenders are. Here are some things I liked from last weeks games;
- The Broncos won their 8th in a row with Peyton under center. This is the longest active winning streak in the league and if this team is only getting warmed up they could be terrorizing to teams in the coming months. If the playoffs started today they would be in a wildcard position and facing the Bengals. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they finished the season 13-3. Their only real opponent is this week in Baltimore, if they can win that expect them to roll over Cleveland and Kansas City no problem.
- The NFC East has shaped up to be the closest division in football. The Giants have a game in hand over Dallas and Washington but that could all change with them facing Atlanta this week, Baltimore then Philadelphia. I really have my fingers crossed for the Giants to miss the playoffs and Washington to get in. I don’t think I can handle another Giants/Patriots Finals.
- The Cowboys rallied from a 9 point deficit in the 4th quarter to win by 1 point. I would say pick them going forward but I won’t do that because Dez Bryant has a broken finger and he is going to play. He is Romo’s favourite target and without him at 100% I can’t picture them beating Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Washington.
- The Panthers made Atlanta look terrible. They took advantage in every possible way from running the ball to forcing Matt Ryan into mistakes on defense. Like I already said the Panthers are going to surprise down the stretch. Don’t be surprised if they beat San Diego this weekend.
- I think the Chargers surprised everyone coming into Pittsburgh and beat up on them at home. Nobody called them keeping this game close, let alone winning it. I think the spread was set at 8.5 in Pittsburgh favor before kickoff. But hey, what does Norv Turner have to lose? Nothing! he is out as the head coach after this year. Keep an eye on the Chargers closing out the season.
- Andrew Luck rallied his Colts team for their second consecutive comeback victory in the 4th quarter. This kid really is something special; if the playoffs started today they would face off against the Baltimore and I don’t have a doubt in my mind they could win that game. They face Houston in 2 of their final 3 weeks and if somehow they win both would even up this division both having 12-4 records and win the AFC South.
- The Vikings WIN! Adrian Peterson is a beast and behind the NFC East they are in the closest playoff race of any other division. Assuming they win out in St. Louis, at Houston and at home against Green Bay they could sneak into the playoffs with a wildcard position.
- The Patriots might be the scariest team moving forward in my mind. They are the highest scoring team in the league and heading into the weekend if they can beat the 49ners will be sending a serious message that they are ready for the playoffs.
Last week my picks didn’t work out too hot. I went 1-2-1 with a push coming in the Sunday night game between Detroit and Green Bay. Had Stafford not fumbled the ball off the snap for a touchdown I think they could have actually won that game. Heading down the stretch my record is 29-23-2. Hopefully I can improve on that this weekend.
GAME 1 – NFC NORTH VS NFC WEST
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+2.5) VS ST. LOUIS RAMS
(ODDS: BET365)
For my first pick this week I’m gonna roll with my boys and the best running back in the league. Nobody has been able to stop AP this year and I don’t think the St. Louis defense will be the first.
Adrian Peterson needs to only average 133 yards per game to break 2000 yards this season and about 169 per game to break the single season rushing record. All coming off the back of major knee surgery. Look for them to use him in every possible way this game and expose this St. Louis rushing defense that ranks 24th at home.
I expect this one to be a low scoring game and the Vikings defense to step their game up getting pressure on Sam Bradford. The Rams offensive line is 23rd in the league and has given up 31 sacks on the season. Something I’m sure Minnesota will expose in this game with 28 sacks on the year.
In the last seven games between these two the Rams are averaging 33 points per outing and the Vikings 29. But I don’t see these teams putting up numbers anywhere close to this on Sunday, here are some trends between these two;
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 8-4 straight up in their last 12 games when playing in St. Louis
ST. LOUIS
- 1-6 off 3+ against the spread wins
- 5-10 straight up in their last 15 games at home
- 46-68 against the spread when playing at home against a team with a winning record since 1992
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 17 – ST. LOUIS 13
GAME 2 – NFC SOUTH VS NFC EAST
NEW YORK GAINTS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (-1.5)
(ODDS: BET 365)
This game could be on repeat come January in a NFC Conference finals showdown. For this matchup I like the points and the Falcons to set a statement that they aren’t a team to be messed with at home.
Atlanta comes into this game after getting beat up by Carolina last weekend. I like them to take this matchup for a couple different reasons. Firstly the Giants have stumbled when playing on the road and immediately following a blowout win. They beat up on Green Bay only to lose the following week to the Redskins in Washington. While in week 3 when they blew out Carolina they lost the following week in Philadelphia. As for the Falcons they are a totally different team at home and are still undefeated in the Georgia Dome.
New York enters this game with the 25th ranked road passing defense. You can be sure that Matt Ryan is going to expose that given his weapons in White, Jones and Gonzalez. He should be good for at least 3 TDS and when they aren’t getting it done on offense their defense should carry them.
Atlanta’s defense has played stellar at home this season when facing the best quarterbacks in the league. They forced Peyton Manning into 3 interceptions in week 2, while Drew Brees threw 5 interceptions only 2 weeks ago. Look for this defense to play stout and shut down this Giants team on the road. Here are some trends I like for this game;
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 1-3 in game 14 in their last four seasons
- 6-7 against the spread this season
ATLANTA
- 4-0 straight up in their last four years in game 14
- 10-0 off double digit loss (Coach Smith)
- 8-1 versus non division opponent in games 13-16
- 5-0 in their last five games at home
FINAL SCORE – GIANTS 17 – FALCONS 34
GAME 3 – AFC SOUTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS (-10)
(ODDS: BET365)
This game should be one of the best games of the weekend. I like the Texans to come into this one very hot after getting punished for the second time this year on prime-time television. Even though Andrew Luck has this Colts team pulling comeback wins every other week, I don’t see that happening in this one for a couple different reasons.
Immediately following Houston’s 42-24 thrashing by Green Bay at home they came out the following week at home and put up 43 points against Baltimore while limiting them too 13 points. I expect the same thing to happen this week. They are going to pressure Andrew Luck; J.J Watt is going to make his life a living hell and Arian Foster should have his way against this Indianapolis 23rd ranked road rushing defense.
The other reason I like Houston to cover in this one is that for years to come this team is going to face the likes of Andrew Luck. This is a divisional matchup and I think they are going to come out in this one setting a statement that Luck isn’t going to have it easy when he has to face this Texans defense twice every year. Here are some trends between these two;
TRENDS
INDIANAPOLIS
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against Houston
- 3-11 straight up in their last 14 games on the road
HOUSTON
- 9-2 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons
- 17-6 against the spread when facing conference opponents over the last 2 seasons
- 6-1 as favourites of more than 4 points with revenge
- 6-1 in their last 7 games at home
FINAL SCORE – COLTS 24 – TEXANS 35
GAME 4 – NFC NORTH VS NFC WEST
DETROIT LIONS (-6) VS ARIZONA CARDINALS
(ODDS: BET365)
For this matchup I like the Lions to be the ones to snap their losing streak and beat the Cardinals at home for their 10th consecutive loss.
The major reason I like this matchup is that Detroit has a quarterback, Arizona does not. Matthew Stafford has been playing great football the last couple weeks. Him and Megatron have Detroit the #1 ranked passing offense in the league averaging 307 yards per game. While Arizona in this same category ranks 28th with only 190 yards per game.
Look for Detroit to pressure Arizona into turnovers. The Cardinals are still the worst team in the league giving up 51 sacks to their quarterbacks. They are 31st in the league at rushing the ball at home and without a ground game Detroit can play cover 2 and look for those interceptions.
In the last 4 weeks no Arizona quarterback has thrown a single touchdown. While across that same span the same quarterbacks have thrown 3 interceptions for touchdowns. This was all against the Seahawks, Rams, and Jets. While Stafford across that same span has thrown for 5 touchdowns, ran for 1 and only has 2 interceptions.
In their current 5 game losing streak the Lions have faced teams that have a combined 36-16. Arizona is the first team with a losing record that they have faced in the last 4 weeks and expect them to take advantage of that. Here are some trends for these teams;
TRENDS
DETROIT
- 3-1 versus teams below .500 this season
- 4-2 against the spread in their last 4 games against Arizona
ARIZONA
- 0-7 in game 14 the last 7 seasons
- 1-4 after facing the Seahawks
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games at home
- 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 27 – CARDINALS 13