Week 14 NFL Picks 2012

• The Colts/Lions game made for the most exciting all weekend. It was full of touchdowns, long runs and points scored. If Andrew Luck hadn’t already made a great case to be rookie of the year, after this game he has. Completing 24 passes for 391 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has miraculously turned this 2-14 team last season into a 8-4 record already and if the playoffs started today would be facing the Patriots in the wildcard. I don’t have much more else to say about this kid except it looks like Indy picked a great year to go 2-14. 
• The Seahawks came into Chicago and beat the Bears. This is something I don’t think anyone in the handicapping world would have called. Mostly on the fact Seattle isn’t the same team on the road that they are at home, and they lost their two top cornerbacks to suspension for violating the NFL performance enhancing drug policy. I guess Seattle defense just really is that deep….or Russel Wilson is that good..
• The Chiefs won their second game of the season at home against the Panthers. I watched most of this game, glad they finally realized to give the ball to Jamal Charles on every play. He is the lifeblood of this offense and can single handedly win games for this team. Heading forward I like the Chiefs to play spoiler and surprise people down the stretch. 
• The Jets are terrible..extremely terrible. I don’t think I ever want to watch another Jets game in my entire life after last weeks 7-6 win over Arizona. They have only scored 69 points in their last 5 weeks,  around 13.8 points per game. That is downright embarrassing and terrible for a professional football team. No team can win if they can’t put points on the board. 
• If only the Rams could play every week like how they play the 49ners this season. They are 1-0-1 against them this season and heading forward don’t be surprised if they make a push for the post-season. 
• The Chargers are equally as terrible as the Jets. I thought entering the season that they would be on the heals of the Broncos for most of the year. Boy was I wrong. But at least they got something right and announced Norv Turner is out at the end of the season…..and so the rebuilding of this franchise begins. 
• Adrian Peterson is still my MVP over Peyton Manning. He is putting up a year like Chris Johnson had when rushing for over 2000. Peterson has 947 rushing yards in his last 6 games, an average of 157 a game! If it continues this way with only 4 games left he will surpass 2000 yards no problem. 

GAME 1 – AFC WEST VS AFC NORTH

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+7) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS

Don’t think that many people would have thought entering this game that both these teams we be fresh off a win. I was surprised to find that Cleveland has be instilled as 7 point favourites, for that reason I’m gonna take the Chiefs in this one. 

Kansas City has seemed to find a way to keep games close in the last couple weeks and Cleveland isn’t a team that wins blowout games. The key to this matchup is going to be how much the Chiefs give Jamal Charles the ball. Something that they have been good at doing the last couple weeks and something that I see happening in this game. In every game this season where he sees 20+ carries Kansas City has won against the spread in every game. 

The Chiefs come in as the 5th best team at rushing the ball on the road, something they should exploit against the Browns 14th ranked rushing defense. But the real test for this game to stay close will be how well the Kansas City secondary does at shutting down the likes of Trent Richardson. He is another rookie having a fantastic year and you can be sure that they will be trying to get him the ball to make big plays in this one. If the Chiefs rushing defense can step up too the task then Brandon Weeden should be forced into game changing mistakes; something I see the Chiefs taking advantage of in this one. Here are some trends; 

TRENDS 

KANSAS CITY 

• 6-2 against the spread when facing AFC opponents 
• 3-2 against Cleveland in their last 5 meetings 

• 1-8 against the spread where the total over/under is between 35-38 over the last 3 season
• 0-7 against the spread after winning 2 of their last 3 games

GAME 2 – NFC SOUTH VS NFC EAST 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+5) VS NEW YORK GIANTS

In this high powered offensive matchup I’m going to stick with the better of the two quarterbacks and take Drew Brees and this Saints offense to cover the 5 on the road. The Gaint’s are a good team don’t get me wrong but they are so hot and cold. They have losses against Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Dallas this year. All respectable teams (excluding the Eagles), and two of those loses come at home. 

Entering this game the Saints have #1 ranked passing road offense in the league. It is no surprise that this team puts up points and that is something they will be able to do against this Giants secondary. The Saints desperately need this win to keep playoff hopes alive and I see them figuring out how to do that this weekend. It all starts with the Brees-Graham connection. I see them connecting for over 100 yards and a touchdown in this game. 

The last reason I like this game is that although the Saints are labelled as passing team in the last couple weeks they have been doing a good job at rushing the ball. This week they are facing the Giants 28th ranked rushing defense. Here are some things I like about this matchup; 

TRENDS 

NEW ORLEANS 

•  9-2 against the spread off an under point total
• 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games facing the Giants 
• 6-0 straight up in game 13 of the season
• 9-1 off straight up loss versus an above .500 opponent 
• 5-2 in second of back-to-back road games versus non-divisional opponent 

• 1-9 as favourites of more than 5 points in games 13-16
• 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games at home 

GAME 4 – NFC EAST VS AFC NORTH

DALLAS COWBOYS (+3.5) VS CINCINNATI BENGALS

For the first time ever I am gonna tell you folks to jump on with the Cowboys this weekend in Cincinnati. Normally I would never condone betting with Dallas because they always manage to disappoint but in this game I have a great feeling they will come through. 

It was Kansas City last week playing with heavy hearts, this week it is the Cowboys. On friday night nose tackle John Brent got behind of the wheel with teammate Jerry Brown and flipped his vehicle killing his teammate. Brent is being charged with vehicular manslaughter and I have a feeling this going to motivate this Cowboys squad for this matchup. 

The other reason I like this game is that it will be the first real opponent the Bengals have faced in over 3 weeks. Although they have won three in a row, they came at the hands of the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers. Teams that combine to have a record of 9-28 and round up the worst division in football this season. Dallas is not a team to be pushed over and you can count on it that whether they play a terrible team or a great team they are always in it when it comes to the end of the game. 

Andy Dalton and A.J Green have been the best wide receiver/quarterback tandem in the league since the season started. But in the last couple weeks Tony Romo and Dez Bryant have thrown their hats in the mix. In the last 3 weeks they have connected for an average of 129 yards a game, and combined for 5 touchdowns. The Bengals will have to do a great job locking this man up and if they do I don’t see them stopping Miles Austin and Jason Witten at the same time. Here are some trends for this matchup; 

TRENDS 

DALLAS 

• 4-2 in their last 6 games playing Cincinnati 
• 9-5 against the spread as a road dog since 2009 

• 3-7-1 against the spread in their last 11 games a home 
• 0-5 in game 13

     

GAME 3 –  NFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 

DETROIT LIONS (+7) VS GREEN BAY PACKERS 

For this NFC North matchup I am gonna have to stick with the points just like every other game this week. The Lions will cover 6.5 in Green Bay on sunday night. The major reason I really like this game is the fact that Matthew Stafford and Megatron have finally rekindled their love for one another. 

In the last four games these two guys have connected for an average of 157 yards and a touchdown. They look unstoppable and you can bet your money on it that the Green Bay 17th ranked pass defense isn’t gonna slow them down. The second reason I like this matchup is because Detroit is looking for revenge, and this is a make-or-break game. They lost in the final minutes of the 4th quarter at home in week 11 against Green Bay, and if they lose this game they can kiss their playoff chances goodbye. 

The last important thing I see influencing this game is that the Packers are without both Clay Mathews and Jordy Nelson. These are two very important players to this team and without them they just don’t look the same. Without Nelson, Detroit’s secondary has to only worry about blanketing Jennings in this game. While Mathews is leading this defense in sacs with 9 on the season. The next highest player on this defense (Dezmon Moses) has 3! So I ask myself how are they going to get any pressure on Stafford? Thats just it, they won’t. As for Rodgers he will be running around the field as usual, this time away from Ndamukong Suh. The Packers offensive line is 31st in the league giving up a second worst 39 sacs. Here are some trends I like from this matchup; 

TRENDS 

LIONS 

• 9-6 against the spread as a road dog the last 3 seasons 
• versus Green Bay (11/18) *KEY as a dog    

PACKERS 

• 1-7 as home favourites of less than 13 points versus an opponent with revenge off back-to-back straight up losses  

FINAL SCORE – DETROIT 31 – GREEN BAY 34