It is here, Week 12 of the NFL regular season. We have already seen almost 3 quarters of the season pass by and the playoff picture is beginning to shape up nicely. Here are some things that happened this past weekend and on Thanksgiving thursday that I enjoyed;
- Three games went to ovetime; Texans/Jags, Bucs/Panthers and Cowboys/Browns. Out of all of them I have to rate them on excitement levels in that exact order. Nobody saw the Jaguars keeping the game that close with Houston. Besides that who doesn’t like a game where the top receivers on both teams combine for 509 yards?
- Speaking of Houston they won in Detroit in another nail biter on Thursday. Improving to a AFC best 10-1 after their second consecutive overtime win. The first team to accomplish this feat in back-to-back games.
- How about those Cardinals? Any team that forces defensively forces 6 turnovers and still manages to lose the game…well that is disgraceful. I don’t think there is much hope left for this team. They should have beaten Atlanta.
- The Bears continue to regress when playing against playoff teams. They got pumped by San Francisco on monday night and couldn’t seem to get anything going. Look for the to address some major concerns on their offensive side of the ball. You can’t rely on your defense to get 3+ turnovers a game.
- The Patriots put up 59 points against Indy on sunday and 49 points against the Jets on Thursday. Throughout this season they are averaging 37 points per game and a touchdown more than the next highest scoring team the Denver Broncos. I still can’t believe how they solidified a victory in the New York on thursday in under a minute scoring 3 touchdowns. I can’t tell you how many times I have watched the video on NFL that is labelled “how to lose a football game in under a minute”. It is great and the first time I think any of us have seen anything like that.
Going forward entering week 12 I am a combined 23-18-1 on the Season. I went 3-0-1 last week with my picks through sunday going perfect until the sunday night game that ended in a push between the Steelers and Ravens. Here is who I like this week.
GAME 1 – AFC EAST VS. AFC SOUTH
BUFFALO BILLS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3)
In the first game I pick this week I’m going with the Indianapolis Colts to bounce back from last weeks humiliating loss and beat up on the Bills. Andrew Luck should have no problem getting into offensive rhythm against this secondary. The Bills are allowing opposing quarterbacks an average of 234 yards and in the meantime giving up the 3rd most points defensively a game with 29.9.
Look for Luck to bounce back and have a great day against this team. If you have him on your fantasy team get him off you bench. I see him throwing 300+ and 3 TD’s today. The key to Buffalo staying in this game will be how well they get the legs of C.J Spiller moving. He is still averaging a league best 6.6 yards a carry and will be looking to carve up this Colts 21st ranked rush defense. I see him getting his share of yards but I just don’t see Ryan Fitzpatrick keeping up with the likes if Luck. This is the real matchup because this is going to be a shootout. Both teams combine for 43 points offensively a game and give up 56 points defensively. Here are some trends to follow in this game;
TRENDS
BUFFALO
- 2-4-1 against the spread in their last 7 games playing in Indianapolis
- 1-6 straight up in their last 7 games playing Indianapolis
- 0-6 off a divisional home game (0-1 this year)
- 1-6 as dogs of less than 6 versus opponents with an above .600 win percentage
INDIANAPOLIS
- 6-1 straight up in their last 7 games at home
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two
FINAL SCORE – BILLS 28 – COLTS 35
GAME 2 – AFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
DENVER BRONCOS (-10) VS KANSAS CITY CHEIFS
Do I really even have to explain why I am taking the Broncos in this game? To me this seems like a no Brainer. The Broncos have been covering machines in the last 5 games. Peyton Manning has this offense operating like a well oiled machine averaging 30.1 points a game. Good for second best in the league. While the Chiefs on the other side of the ball are putting up a league worst 15.2 points per game. This right here is already a difference of 15 points and shows that Denver should have a cake walk against this divisional rival.
With the Broncos being so deadly on offense it will come down to the Chiefs and how well they can run the ball the burn the clock and keep the ball out of the hands of Manning. Something that they might just struggle doing as Denver ranks 6th this season at stopping the rush. So with that seemingly unlikely to happen they must rely on their secondary to stop Manning from carving them up like turkey at Thanksgiving dinner. For that to happen they need to improve on the 284 yards passing they are giving up to opposing quarterbacks and keep this game low scoring. Something they have struggled to do all season giving up an average of 28.4 points per game.
Might as well already chalk up a win for the Broncos in this game, its just a matter of whether they cover or not. Something I am very confident in them doing this sunday. Here are some trends for this matchup
TRENDS
DENVER
- 8-4 straight up on their last 12 games on the road
- 9-2 as road favourites of more than 2 points with revenge of straight up against the spread win
KANSAS CITY
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 home games a
- gainst Denver
- 0-4 versus opponents with revenge off back-to-back straight up wins
- 1-11 in 2nd of back-to-back home games versus conference opponent
FINAL SCORE – BRONCOS 35 – CHEIFS 21
GAME 3 – AFC WEST VS AFC NORTH
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+8) VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
With my first upset this sunday I like the Raiders to come into Cincinnati and cover the 8 points while keeping this game close. Oakland has lost their last 3 games and needs to stop the bleeding to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. I see Carson Palmer doing just that in his homecoming to Cincinnati since being traded last year and refusing to ever suit up in a Bengals uniform again.
The Bengals defense ranks 18th in the league allowing an average of 248.4 yards passing to opposing quarterbacks. A total Palmer should have no problem passing as this season he has been good for 307 yards per game. The Raiders have been one of the worst defenses in the league the last 3 weeks giving up a total of 135 points. They should improve on that this weekend although I see this game becoming a total shootout and whoever puts up the most points in the 4th quarter will probably win this game. The key for Oakland to keep this game tight will be for a solid run game to keep Andy Dalton and the best wide receiver in the league A.J Green off the field. When he is on the field expect Oakland to give him the respect he deserves blanketing him all day with double coverage. Here are some trends for this game;
TRENDS
OAKLAND
- 51-36 against the spread in games coming off a loss and are road dogs; facing an opponent off a win since 1990
- 6-0 away after allowing 35 or more points (38-Saints last week)
- Off 3 or more against the spread losses have a perfect 4-0 record
CINCINNATI
- 0-8 as home favourites of more than 4 points versus opponents off double digit straight up losses
- Head Coach Marvin Lewis is 1-9 as home favourites versus opponent off double digit straight up loss
FINAL SCORE – RAIDERS 31 – BENGALS 34
GAME 4 – NFC SOUTH VS NFC EAST
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
In this monday night matchup I have to go with the team that has seriously under performed on the season but still has a legitimate starting quarterback. I like Carolina and Cam Newton to take the spotlight in this matchup and march out of Philadelphia winners.
The Eagles have been the biggest disaster this season, they are 0-5 in their last 5 games and 3-7 on the season. By far they have been the biggest disappointment this year with several people picking them to take home the Superbowl. That is almost impossible now as they are virtually outside the playoff picture and starting Nick Foles at quarterback.
This will be a test of mental strength for the Eagles this week as they got humiliated at home by the Redskins last week and failed to score a touchdown. Unfortunately it is only getting worse for them as it looks like LeSean McCoy won’t be playing since suffering a concussion during last weeks game. This team is going to struggle to get the ball moving against a Panther defense that is giving up 232 yards passing a game.
I particularly like the Panther in this game due too their tough loss at home last week against division rivals Tampa Bay. They were leading by a touchdown with under a minute left in the game and had the chance to run the clock out. Instead they were forced to punt, Tampa came down the field and scored a TD in the final seconds, then converted a two point conversion to force overtime. Where they completed the comeback and beat the Panthers. I don’t think that Newton and his team are taking that loss very lightly and I see them coming out this week with a fire under their asses. Here are some trends for these teams;
TRENDS
CAROLINA
- 5-0 off back-to-back straight up against the spread losses versus opponents below .500
- Coach Ron Rivera 4-1 versus opponents with a less than .500 win percentage
PHILADELPHIA
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games
- 2-4 as home dogs since 2008
FINAL SCORE – PANTHER 27 – EAGLES 17